Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 161605 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1205 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A broad area of low pressure will spin over the Canadian maritimes today, with snow showers continuing in portions of the mountains. Temperatures will be a little cooler than normal with lots of clouds. A cold front will cross the region Saturday morning, bring in some very chilly air, which will linger into early next week. A coastal low could bring some precipitation to the region around the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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12 PM Update...Have updated the forecast mainly for minor adjustments to temperatures, winds, and sky. We`re mainly expecting partly to mostly sunny skies on the coastal plain along with wind gusts around 30 MPH. In the mountains, upslope clouds and snow showers will continue. Previously... Update...Trapped low level moisture and cyclonic flow over the area is continuing upslope snow showers this morning. With Froude numbers well over 1...snow showers appear to be having no problem making it over the higher terrain and into the foothills. I do not expect much in accumulations outside of the NW facing slopes however. I have increased PoP in the high terrain and the foothills. Previous...NW winds pick up today as gradient tightens between sfc low near Labrador and building high pressure over the OH valley, this will bring some colder air into the CWA today, but not the coldest air which arrive overnight. Look for gusty NW winds 10-20 mph with gust up to 30 mph at times, and highs ranging from the upper 20s in the N, to the mid 30s in the south. The coastal plain should see some frequent sunny breaks today in the downslope, while the mtns will get the upslope clouds and snow showers, which should starting to pick up in intensity somewhat this afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... For tonight, the winds should become less gusty, but will persist overnight, and colder air will continue to flow in with lows dropping, mostly into the 10-20 range tonight. Should see skies become mostly clear outside of the mtns as well. The upslope show showers should persist overnight as well, and some of the higher terrain, as well as some of the notches could see 1-3" between today and tonight, as well as some areas right along the intl border.Most of the valleys will see an inch or less. On Saturday, a cold front will cross the CWA during the morning, which could bring snow showers into the foothills, and flurries toward the coast. As well as more clouds during the morning. The arctic air is behind this front and will begin to stream in the afternoon, and winds will pick up again. Highs will likely be around midday into early afternoon before temps drop off. Highs will range around 20 in the mtns, to around 30 on the coast and in srn NH. Despite the -15 to -20 C air moving in at 850 mb, I did give the slightly warmer MOS numbers a little more weight as they seem to show some better skill in these anomalous late winder cold outbreaks. Very dry air moves in behind the front, so should see skies clear out and upslope SHSN diminish during the second half of the day. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A trof of low pres over the maritimes will provide a cold northwest flow with temps well below normal into midweek. The question will be how to handle an upper low moving east from the Rockies in the southern stream during the mid to latter part of the week. Models having a very hard time in handling this system and then whether to even try and phase this system with some northern stream energy. As always the track will determine the outcome for northern New England. For now will hedge and keep a chance of snow for the mid to latter part of the week. Once the system exits the Rockies models should get a better handle and some resolution. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term...Mainly VFR today through Saturday. KHIE will be variable between VFR and MVFR in SHSN today into Saturday morning. NW winds could gust up to 25 kts at times today. Long Term...VFR conditions. && .MARINE... Short Term...Current SCA conds will persist thru most of today, and could see a few gale gusts near Isle of Shoals. Winds could become sub-SCA for several hours overnight, but will pick up again on Saturday. Long Term...A gusty northwest flow will continue but conditions should remain below SCA criteria Sunday through Tuesday. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ150>154. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.