Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 182237 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 637 PM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will exit the Maritimes this evening and allow showers to come to an end. Low pressure passes to our south on Thursday bringing some light rain and snow, especially across southern NH and southernmost ME. Things are looking up however as high pressure finally builds into New England over the weekend into early next week. After that the next chance of precipitation occurs next Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... 630PM UPDATE... Only adjustments to the forecast were to pull temperature and dewpoint forecasts in line with current observations. Forecast generally on track for tonight. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... Overall should see a downward trend in clouds and any showers through this evening, but next approaching system will start spilling high clouds in the region late this evening in the SW and after midnight everywhere else. This system is a fast moving low tracking across PA tonight. Precip will likely begin around daybreak in srn NH and some CT valley zones. Initially may see some snow in this area, but should chance quickly to rain in all but the higher elevations of the Monadnocks /1200 feet or so is my educated guess right now/, where could see an inch by Thu morning. Most other places may see a coating on on unpaved surfaces, but may end up with nothing as well. Lows will be from around 30 in the north to the mid 30s on the coast and areas of southern NH. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... Precip will spread across the rest of the CWA during the first half of the morning, with most places seeing it break out at between 11 and 14Z. Could see a little snow mixing in at the start, but will quickly go to rain in all but the mtns. The low will track quickly east, and bulk of precip stays S of the CWA, but storm will intensify, so forcing for ascent will trail behind it and linger into Thu evening, at least. Highs on Thu will be a bit cooler given the clouds and precip, and run in the 40-45 range across the CWA. It`s possible that rain changes briefly back to snow before it ends Thu night especially in inland areas. Additional accums look minimal except maybe up to another inch on the higher terrain. Lows will fall to around 30 in the N, and into the mid 30s in the south. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... For the end of the work week the northern stream vort max over northern New England shifts east. Cyclonic flow will linger long enough to allow for additional clouds and isolated showers over the higher terrain through the day and evening Friday. Elsewhere, drying will occur with northwest winds ushering clouds out of the coastal plains. Temperatures will still be below normal for the weekend, but this will signal the beginning of a warming trend which should last through most of next week. This will be a good taste of Spring with several precipitation- free days in a row, helping to rid New England of some of the snow pack still protected in the mountains and foothills. Modified high pressure originally from the Canadian Pacific will cross the High Plains and build over the northeast by Sunday. The high center will shift offshore by next Tuesday allowing for return southerly flow. Warm southwesterly winds will allow much of New England to reach upper 50s with 60s likely over the coastal plain. Some favored warm spots like Nashua and Manchester will reach the lower 60s, while a light seabreeze should keep the immediate coast in the 50s. The next chance of precipitation will come Wednesday as a southern stream impulse encourages secondary cyclogenesis off the mid-Atlantic coastline. Long term models have quite different solutions as to the deepness and and placement of the wave, which will affect the timing of precipitation. Currently will put warm advection showers in the forecast for Wednesday, but confidence is not especially high. A cold front will introduce cooler air after additional showers on Thursday. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term...MVFR conditions move in late tonight, with IFR expected Thu into thu night. Long Term... Fri - Sat...Areas of MVFR conditions ceilings in scattered mountain -SHRA/-SHSN. VFR prevailing all terminals Sunday into Monday under light winds. && .MARINE... Short Term...Seas will diminish this evening. Will begin to approach SCA winds late Thu might. Long Term... Fri - Sat...SCA`s are possible...especially outside the bays. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ150- 152-154. && $$ NEAR TERM UPDATE...Kimble SHORT TERM...Cempa LONG TERM...Hanes is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.