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000
FXUS61 KGYX 242302
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
702 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure then moves into and across the region tonight
through Saturday. A warming trend can be expected over the
weekend with chance of showers Saturday night or Sunday. Warmer
weather is then expected early next week for most areas except
possibly the coastal plain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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702 PM Update...Just a few minor tweaks to T/Td/sky trends
overnight with latest hires guidance coming in. Overall very
little change of consequence. At this time, the cold front is
slipping offshore with gusty northwest winds 25-35 and a
clearing trend. over the area.

Previously...
A cold front will pass through the area through the evening,
kicking up some winds as well as dropping temperatures
overnight.

After midday clearing, scattered showers have again developed
over the area. This is associated with lift from the passing
cold front, and should taper into the early evening. Some light
snow is also expected through early evening along the US/CAD
border. Mixing taps into some low level winds through late
evening, creating gusts up to 35 mph. Winds should lose gust
factor around midnight, with breeze continuing. Temps fall due
to this CAA, with widespread values around freezing or off into
the 20s across the mountains.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Wave that enhanced winds Wed evening will have moved out for
Thursday, with just a few gusts early. As mixing kicks in amid a
very dry airmass, will likely see RH values fall into the 20s
and teens through the afternoon. Limited moisture through the
column should prove for a nearly full sun day. Temperatures will
be cooler however, and struggle to warm outside of direct sun
insolation. HRRR is depicting a seabreeze beginning early
afternoon, and this should bring a wind shift to coastal
communities around 2pm along with a bit more humidity as temps
fall off a couple degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
We`ll start off the long term period 12z on Friday with a 1030+
millibar high pressure center overhead. A cool crisp morning
will give way to a sunny afternoon but with below normal
temperatures.

Deep layer ridging builds Friday night allowing for the fair
weather to continue. Radiational cooling is likely Friday night
and therefore sided with MOS guidance for lows.

Deep layer ridging slowly moves eastward on Saturday but still
should provide for a fair weather day with temperatures
returning to the 60s. A warm front approaches from the west
Saturday night with the chance of showers late. However, the
ridge aloft will hold firm so capped the PoPs some as it`s
entirely possible that any period of showers Saturday night and
Sunday could be brief. It still should remain cloudy Sunday with
low level onshore flow in place, but larger scale subsidence
should keep chances of rain low.

The same general setup looks to be in the cards for Monday but
there is more uncertainty in temperatures as onshore flow may
penetrate deeper into Maine and portions of NH. The best chance
of 70+ degree readings will be over southwestern NH while lower
temperatures are expected as one moves eastward. There is also a
chance that some showers will spill over the ridge axis.

The best chance of measurable rainfall will come Tuesday and/or
Wednesday as the ridge finally breaks down and allows a trough
to approach from the west. Showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms will be possible then.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...VFR with gusty NW winds through mid evening. MVFR
ceilings through late this afternoon for HIE. Some gusts may
approach 30 kt accompanying showers. Some LLWS is possible as
surface winds settle before winds aloft. Winds slowly slacken
overnight. Lighter winds Thursday, with primarily SKC
conditions. Can`t rule out some valley fog developing Thursday
night.

Long Term...VFR prevails Friday through Saturday with high
pressure overhead. Scattered -SHRA arrives Saturday night
through part of Sunday with possible lower ceilings although the
any rainfall would likely be brief at one location. The same is
expected for Monday although chances of rain will be lower.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...NW winds increase this evening as a cold front
crosses the waters. Some gusts to 35 kt are possible, but bulk
of these winds should be 30kt or less. These winds slacken below
SCA criteria Thursday morning, with seas slowly lowered to 3 to
4 ft through the day. A seabreeze may form during the afternoon,
turning winds onshore for the bays/harbors.

Long Term...Winds and seas to remain below thresholds hazardous
to small crafts as high pressure builds over the waters Fri-Mon.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ150-152-
     154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ151-153.
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&&

$$

UPDATE...Casey
NEAR/SHORT TERM...Cornwell
LONG TERM...Ekster