000
FXHW60 PHFO 260700
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
900 PM HST Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Strong trade winds will gradual decrease and veer toward the
east-southeast through early next week. Several plumes of moisture
will produce passing showers across windward and mountain areas
through Saturday. A drier weather pattern is expected Sunday into
early next week with light to moderate east to east southeast winds.
Winds should be light enough for sea breezes to develop during
the day and land breezes at night, especially early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A 1031 mb high far north of the state is currently producing
strong trade winds across the state this evening. Latest
satellite and radar imagery shows mostly dry conditions across the
state with some scattered showers over windward areas and the
Kona slopes of the Big Island. Looking upstream of the state,
there is a plume of moisture upstream of Maui, which will likely
bring an increase of scattered showers rest of tonight across
windward areas. Some of these showers may spill over to leeward
locations of the smaller islands given the inversion heights are
around 6 kft from the afternoon soundings. Another plume of
moisture looks to arrive sometime late Friday into Saturday.
Overall an increase of showers is expected through Saturday,
primarily over windward areas with some spillage to leeward
locales of the smaller islands. Rainfall amounts should remain
light to moderate, due to stable conditions aloft.

An area of low pressure is expected to develop along a stalled
front roughly 1000 miles northwest of the state Friday and
Saturday before shifting northeast. This set up will shift winds
slightly to the east- southeast on Saturday for the western half
of the state. This set up could allow for a hybrid wind pattern over
the weekend with land/sea breezes developing over leeward areas
of the smaller islands and the easterly component of the winds
still producing a moderate to locally breezy trade shower pattern
over windward areas, especially for the eastern half of the
state.

A trough extending from the low will inch roughly 500 miles
northwest of the state early next week as the parent tracks far
north of the state. This will further ease winds locally allowing
for a more dominate land/sea breezes pattern. Sea breezes during
the day time should lead to afternoon clouds each afternoon over
mountain and interior areas. The surface trough and associated upper
level trough feature will provide a conveyor belt, drawing a
tongue of near to slightly above normal moisture levels over the
state. These features could allow for deep clouds to develop each
afternoon with the seas breezes. However rainfall totals are not
expected to be significant. Expect clouds and chances of showers
to diminish each night with the land breeze.

&&

.AVIATION...
Breezy to locally windy trade winds will continue through Friday.
Clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka areas, with
isolated showers occasionally spilling over to leeward
areas...bringing periodic MVFR conditions. Cloud cover and shower
activity will be greatest overnight into the morning hours.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will generally prevail.

AIRMET Tango is in effect for moderate low-level turb downwind of
the terrain for all islands. These conditions are expected to
improve sometime tonight heading into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...

A 1031 mb surface high, centered around 900 nm northeast of the
state, will slowly drift eastward over the next several days.
Meanwhile, a new low is forecast to develop about 900 nm northwest
of Hawaii on Friday. Strong east-northeast trade winds may
approach gale force through channeled areas tonight, but should
gradually weaken and shift to the east-southeast by Saturday
morning in response to the approaching low.

A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) continues for all Hawaiian coastal
waters through Friday morning and has been extended for windward
Oahu waters and eastward through Friday afternoon. The advisory
may need to be extend into Saturday for some of the more typical
windier locations around the Big Island and Maui County.

Surf heights will remain below advisory thresholds for all shores
through the forecast period. Multiple small northwest swells are
expected tonight through Saturday night. Expect these swells to
produce small surf along north and northwest facing shores. A small
background southerly swell will lead to small surf along south
facing beaches through the forecast period. Strong trade winds
will continue to produce choppy, rough surf along east facing
beaches through tomorrow afternoon. Smaller, smoother surf is
expected for the weekend as trade winds ease.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel-
Oahu Leeward Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Oahu Windward
Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward Waters-Maui County
Leeward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-
Big Island Windward Waters-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island
Southeast Waters.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Almanza
AVIATION...Birchard
MARINE...Bedal