Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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FXHW60 PHFO 220201

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
401 PM HST Mon Jun 21 2021

Gentle to moderate trade winds will continue into the weekend.
Localized sea breezes may form over terrain sheltered leeward
areas during each afternoon. Mid and upper level ridging will
provide a stable atmosphere. Trades will push incoming clouds and
light showers over windward and mauka areas, mostly during the
nighttime and early mornings.


A 1030 mb surface high is centered far north northeast of Hawaii
with a ridge extending towards the southwest from the high. Gentle
to moderate trade winds across the state is the result of this
pattern setup. Visible satellite and radar show cloudy skies and
passing showers over Kauai this afternoon, and cloud build ups
over the Big Island. The rest of the state is mostly sunny to
partly cloudy this afternoon with evidence of leeward clouds
popping up due to localized sea breezes. 00Z soundings show
strong inversions at 8 kft at Hilo and 10 kft at Lihue with
precipitable water around 1.45 inches.

Little change in the day to day forecast is expected through the
week. Expect a mostly clear night for leeward areas, with a few
clouds and showers filling in late over windward slopes that will
linger into tomorrow morning. Skies will clear out midday and may
fill back in for leeward and interior sections during the
afternoon due to the localized sea breezes setting up in the more
sheltered areas. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trade winds will
blow into the weekend. Expect a near repeat of this weather
Wednesday into the weekend. Mid and upper level ridging will
provide a stable atmosphere.


Light to locally moderate trade wind flow will persist for the
next few days. Scattered low clouds and showers will favor east
and northeast facing slopes and coasts, especially in the late
night and early morning hours. Isolated MVFR conditions are to be
expected in passing showers, otherwise VFR conditions will

The lighter background flow will allow localized sea breezes to
develop along leeward coasts in the afternoon and early evenings,
promoting areas of inland cloudiness.

No AIRMETs are currently in effect or anticipated at this time.
However, model guidance suggests an area of moderate upper-level
turbulence developing over the far western portion of the forecast
area late tonight. Will monitor for potential AIRMET Tango.


A surface ridge northwest of the area is maintaining moderate
trade winds across the coastal waters. Trade winds will weaken
over the next few days as the ridge shifts slowly southeast,
before strengthening late in the week as high pressure builds.

A current south swell will gradually decrease through Tuesday.
Small to moderate south swells are expected through the weekend.
Small northwest swells will continue this week and into the
weekend. Weak trade winds will maintain small surf along east
facing shores through the week with an uptick expected over the
weekend as trade winds increase.





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