Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 162113
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
213 PM PDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A storm system will bring showers and higher
elevation snow to the region through tonight along with much
colder temperatures. The desert will remain dry with strong and
gusty winds through tonight. Tuesday through Wednesday will be
dry and slightly cooler than normal. Showers and higher elevation
snow could return to the region by Thursday, especially over the
Sierra.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Showers and isolated thunderstorms are moving
mainly along a line from Coalinga northeastward into the Sierra
foothills in Mariposa County based on latest radar data. Some
isolated convective showers are also developing just east of the
line, such as towards Corcoran and Tulare. The primary band of
precipitation will continue to progress eastward through late this
afternoon. So far, mainly pea-sized hail has been reported with a
couple of the strongest storm cells. Expect additional shower and
isolated thunderstorm development to continue throughout the
region into early this evening, as the atmosphere will remain
cold and unstable. Other concerns through this evening include
snow continuing in the Sierra Nevada, snow developing in the Kern
County mountains by this evening, and strong and gusty winds
through the passes into the desert areas where the High Wind
Warning continues. The strongest gusts are expected near Mojave
for this evening.

By Tuesday morning, most of the activity is expected to end,
although temperatures will remain much cooler than average.
Slick, icy roads will remain a possibility in the Kern County
mountain areas including the Tehachapi Mountains and towards
Frazier Park. During Wednesday, slightly warmer temperatures are
expected ahead of the next system that will arrive by the evening.
However, daytime high temperatures will likely remain around a
couple of degrees below average.

The next system will bring additional snow to the Sierra, with
mainly a slight chance of showers for the San Joaquin Valley.
This is not expected to be a strong system and will have limited
moisture. Models remain in decent agreement with timing and
placement of this next system. Higher resolution guidance such as
the NAM is also starting to show less colder air aloft compared to
the current system, while the main precipitation band is expected
to move along the coast before the upper-level low moves inland
over the Central CA coast during late Wednesday night into early
Thursday morning. This upper-level low will be centered over the
Great Basin by Thursday afternoon, so it appears this system will
move over the region, so the precipitation threat will end shortly
thereafter, or by the evening.

The weekend into early next week period continues to trend
towards warmer than normal temperatures with dry conditions,
courtesy of high pressure building over the region. High pressure
ridging does not appear real strong at this time as another low
pressure system moves over the Pacific Northwest. However,
temperatures will rise to at least several degrees above average,
similar to what has recently occurred.



&&

.AVIATION...
Over the Southern Sierra Nevada and adjacent foothills, mountain
obscuring IFR conditions in low clouds and precipitation. In the
Tehachapi Mountains, becoming mainly MVFR in low clouds with areas
of mountain obscuring IFR. In the San Joaquin Valley, mostly VFR
with scattered MVFR in low clouds and showers. Isolated
thunderstorms possible until 02Z Tuesday. In the Kern County
Deserts, VFR with areas of MVFR in blowing dust as surface winds
continue to gust up to and above 50 knots until 10Z Tuesday.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM PDT Tuesday CAZ097.

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening CAZ096.

High Wind Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening CAZ095.

Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT
Tuesday CAZ095.

High Wind Warning until 3 AM PDT Tuesday CAZ098-099.

&&

$$

public...BSO
avn/fw...Molina
synopsis...BSO

weather.gov/hanford


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