Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 170937

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
237 AM PDT Thu May 17 2018

A low pressure system over Nevada will bring slightly below normal
temperatures to the central California interior today accompanied
by breezy winds and a chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms over the Sierra. Friday through the weekend will
be warmer with a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms near the
Sierra crest.


The upper low that moved across northern California Wednesday is
moving into the Great Basin this morning. Temperatures will
warm a few degrees today, but will remain a few degrees below
normal with continued chances for afternoon and evening Sierra
convection as the low moves slowly eastward. Temperatures then
trend upward through the weekend under weak ridging ahead of
another developing Northeast Pacific trough. By Saturday and
Sunday, afternoon highs will be a near normal. Despite the weak
ridging overhead, there will still be a possibility of convection
over the higher Sierra elevations.

Model solutions continue to be in general agreement with the
developing low for early next week, with just some slight
deviation in the exact track. A closed low is progged to dive
inland across northern CA by Monday and swing across part of
central CA Monday night and Tuesday. The result will be slightly
cooler temperatures with gusty winds over mountain ridges and
through and below the passes. Convection chances will continue
over the Sierra zones Monday and Tuesday with a slight chance in
the foothills as well. Wednesday and Thursday will bring a slight
warming trend with decreasing chances for Sierra convection as
the low pulls away.


Local MVFR ceilings will occur along the north facing slopes of the
Tehachapi mountains until 18z today. Isolated thunderstorms with
local MVFR/IFR conditions are expected near the Sierra crest between
20z today and 03z Friday. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail
across the Central CA Interior during the next 24 hours.





The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.


.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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