Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 151130

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
430 AM PDT Tue May 15 2018

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur over the
higher elevations of the Sierra each afternoon and evening
through Monday. Otherwise, dry weather will prevail over the
central California interior during the period. Seasonal
temperatures can be expected today before trending cooler than
normal Wednesday, followed by a gradual warming trend through the

Satellite loops indicate the weak upper low spinning over Nevada
which has helped to trigger afternoon and evening convection over
the Sierra. Another approaching low is shown near 33N/130W,
swinging eastward toward the California coast. Some residual
moisture with the Nevada system is banking some upslope clouds
along the foothills of Tulare and Fresno counties, otherwise
generally clear skies prevail over central California this morning
with moderate breezes and seasonable temperatures.

Models are similar as they slowly lift the weakening low northward
from Nevada today, with another round of Sierra showers and
thunderstorms and temperatures continuing near normal over
central California. The following low is progged to move ashore
over northern/central California Later tonight and Wednesday,
continuing into the Great Basin area by Thursday. This will help
to keep the Sierra convection pattern in place each day and will
also usher in some ocean cooled air across the San Joaquin Valley
in addition to producing synoptic cooling over the area. Expect
highs Wednesday to be as much as 5-10 degrees below climo. The
incoming low will also create breezy conditions, gusting around
25-30 mph along the west side of the Valley Tuesday evening.

This low is progged to slowly lift out by the end of the week,
with weak cyclonic flow remaining in place overhead. This will
maintain the afternoon and evening convection over the Sierra
zones through the weekend, with temperatures trending back to
around seasonal averages. Models show yet another approaching
Pacific low during the first part of next week, but differ on the
exact track and timing. Current forecast calls for a continued
chance of convection over the Sierra with temperatures around
climo during the first part of next week.


Areas of MVFR and local mountain obscuring IFR in low clouds and
showers over the Southern Sierra Nevada with isolated thunderstorms
possible between 20Z today and 03Z Wednesday. Otherwise...VFR
conditions will prevail across the Central CA Interior during the
next 24 hours.





The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.


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