654
FXUS63 KICT 181941
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
241 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon-
  evening, a few strong storms are possible

- Severe storms likely on Sunday afternoon and evening for
  central and south central Kansas

- More severe storms look to impact the region again on Tuesday
  mainly along and east of the Kansas turnpike

- Additional rounds of storms will continue for Thursday-Friday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

A frontal boundary will stall out over southern Kansas this
afternoon and a few storms could develop as there will be some weak
convergence present along the boundary. The flow aloft is rather
weak so expecting storm structure to be less organized and a few
strong storms will be possible. Meanwhile, a easterly low-level
moist upslope regime north of the front will likely spark off
convection over eastern Colorado later this afternoon. This activity
should grow and expand into a slower forward propagating MCS as low
level jet/moisture transport increases over western Kansas this
evening and overnight. The complex of storms will mainly affect
northern Kansas/central Nebraska for late tonight into Sunday
morning. Some of this activity could spread into central Kansas with
a few strong storms possible. This could also push an outflow
boundary southward into south central Kansas which will likely
mix back northward during the day on Sunday.

The focus will then shift to Sunday afternoon/evening as current
satellite water vapor imagery shows a upper level wave moving
eastward from the Pacific Ocean into southern California. This upper
level system will race eastward across the Rockies tonight and eject
into Nebraska/Kansas during the afternoon on Sunday. Mid-level
temperatures will be rather warm and look to prohibit storm
development until this upper wave approaches the dry-line by mid-
late afternoon. Once storms develop they will quickly become severe
given high instability/wind shear combination. The storms should
initially start out as discrete supercells with 0-6km shear vector
orientation more perpendicular to dry-line. The environment looks
more mixed out with higher LCLs so very large hail and destructive
winds up to 80mph will be main threats given higher DCAPE. There is
some tornado potential and a risk window area would be mainly
over south central Kansas just west and near I-35 in the evening
as low-level jet increases(boosting 0-3km SRH) and LCLs could
become a little lower in the deeper moisture. The storms look to
congeal into a line of storms with cold pool interference with
damaging to destructive winds becoming the main hazard as the
evening goes on. Heading into Monday the warmer capping 700mb
temperatures looks more formidable and with no upper wave to aid
in upper forcing if any storms go along the dry line they would
be isolated and could become severe. Tuesday we will have a
better chance for severe storms to affect the region again as
models show another upper level wave interacting with the dry
line, and an associated cold front pushing southeast into a
highly unstable and sheared environment.

Looks like a quiet weather day will be in store for Wednesday as
surface high pressure builds over the region in the wake of
Tuesday`s frontal passage. However that looks to be short-lived with
ensemble models showing mainly west/southwest flow aloft returning
for Thursday and Friday which could lead to more rounds of storms
over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

VFR conditions will prevail for today and much of tonight across
the region. A stalled out frontal boundary could give way to
some isolated showers/storms over south central Kansas this
afternoon/evening. The stalled out frontal boundary will begin
to lift northward for late tonight into Sunday morning. Otherwise
showers and storms could spread eastward across portions of
central Kansas late tonight towards Sunday morning. South winds
will gradually increase for mid-late Sunday morning.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...CDJ