378
FXUS63 KICT 190833
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
333 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms likely this afternoon and evening, mainly along
  and west of the Flint Hills between 4 PM and midnight.

- Additional severe storm chances Tuesday afternoon-evening,
  mainly east of the Kansas Turnpike.

- Additional off-and-on thunderstorm chances Thursday through
  early next week.

- Above normal temperatures probable the next several days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

EARLY THIS MORNING...Stout 850-700mb warm/moist advection ahead of
an approaching low amplitude shortwave is currently supporting a
loosely organized thunderstorm complex over western Kansas. Thinking
this activity could impact locations generally along/north of a line
extending from Great Bend to Salina early this morning. A modest
combination of effective deep layer shear and elevated instability
could support 50 mph winds and small hail with the strongest storms.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...A sharpening dryline over western
Kansas ahead of an approaching low-amplitude shortwave will be the
focus for thunderstorm development by late afternoon, mainly west of
a line extending from Lincoln to Medicine Lodge. Despite relatively
warm mid-level temperatures and only modest dryline convergence,
decent mid-upper forcing should be enough to initiate isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms. Strong heating and seasonably rich
low-level moisture amidst very steep mid-level lapse rates will
yield strong instability, and deep layer shear (0-8km and 0-10km) of
50-65 kts oriented perpendicular to the dryline will support a
couple of intense supercells initially, posing a threat for very
large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes, especially
if upscale growth is delayed a bit, and LCLs are lower than
currently progged. Thereafter, impressive downdraft CAPE will likely
support intense downdrafts, with eventual upscale growth into a few
intense bow echoes likely further east through roughly the Flint
Hills into the evening, aided by a strong low-level jet. Locally
intense 80+ mph winds and large hail is possible with this activity,
mainly along and west of the Flint Hills before midnight.
Additionally, can`t rule out an isolated QLCS tornado or two
associated with any intense bow echo.

MONDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT...Thunderstorm development is unlikely Monday
afternoon-evening, due to large scale height rises and associated
subsidence, which should tend to suppress widespread thunderstorm
chances. However, convergence in vicinity of a triple point progged
to be somewhere across central or south-central Kansas could prove
sufficient for a stray thunderstorm or two to develop. Should this
happen, strong buoyancy amidst strengthening deep layer shear would
support supercells capable of all severe hazards.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT...A more synoptically evident severe weather
event looks to take shape during this time period, as the parent
western CONUS upper trough ejects onto the Great Plains, interacting
with a very moist/unstable airmass in place across the region. Model
consensus continues to highlight roughly the Flint Hills on east for
the greatest severe weather potential, in vicinity of a dryline/cold
front intersection. The best forcing looks to remain northeast of
the region, which should keep storms a bit more isolated with
southward extent. Should storms form, long hodographs oriented
mostly perpendicular to the dryline in concert with strong to
extreme instability would support intense supercells capable of all
severe hazards.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...After a break Wednesday, model
consensus supports the potential for a continued off-and-on active
pattern thunderstorm-wise across the Heartland Thursday through
early next week, as another longwave trough takes shape across the
western CONUS, ejecting various pieces of upper energy northeast
onto Mid-America. Details on timing, amplitude, and placement of
synoptic features continues to remain unclear at this time, which
will have a big impact on severe weather implications. Stay tuned
for later forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

A busy TAF period is ahead, especially Sunday afternoon through
Sunday night.

VFR conditions are expected to prevail from now through about
21Z Sunday afternoon. Showers and storms across western Kansas
are expected to continue moving northeast, and they could
potentially affect area along and north of the I-70 corridor.
However, chances for impacts remain low at this time, so this
has been omitted from the TAFs. If anything changes within the
next few hours, short term amendments may be needed for KRSL and
KSLN prior to the 12Z TAF issuance.

Strong to severe storms are expected to develop by 21Z on
Sunday and quickly progress eastward during the evening and
nighttime hours. Large hail up to golf balls, winds up to 75
mph are expected with any storms that develop, especially
between 21Z and 03Z. Storms are expected to weaken as they move
east of the Flint Hills, but gusty winds and small hail will
continue to be possible between 03Z-06Z.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...JC