Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 142048 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 348 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Clouds will thicken and lower this evening with periods of light rain, possibly moderate to heavy at times developing overnight as low pressure approaches from the southwest. The low will hug the Carolina Coasts as it lifts northeast across the forecast area Thu morning. A rumble of thunder will also be possible. In the wake of the low, drier and near normal temperatures will work its way across the forecast area Thu night and Friday and will likely persist into and thru the upcoming weekend. A dry cold frontal passage will occur Monday night, bringing a surge of continued cool and dry air thru the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Surface wave developing along front stalled across central FL will slowly move northeast this evening and overnight. The wave will develop into a surface low as it moves north, increasing isentropic lift across the local area. Strong low level jetting develops overnight, up to 60 kt around 3k ft at its peak. Strong southeast flow just above the surface and strong southwest flow aloft will spread an abundance of tropical moisture over the region. Forecast soundings have precipitable water peaking between 1.8 to 2 inches, values which exceed the max all time based on sounding climatology. Strong lift coupled with abundant moisture will produce widespread heavy rain overnight with convective elements developing closer to coast as the low approaches. Front may move onshore just ahead of the low Thu morning. Do not think the boundary would push very far inland, but this would allow for a period of time where strong to severe storms will be possible along the immediate coast, mainly from 10-15Z. Temperatures will gradually increase overnight, with lows likely to occur before midnight. Along the coast temps could rise 10 degrees or more overnight if the front moves onshore. Widespread heavy rain decreases quickly following the passage of the surface low, although low level moisture will linger across the region through the end of the period. Low cloud is likely to linger through the afternoon despite much drier air aloft spreading over the area. Light rain and drizzle will remain a possibility into the afternoon, especially along the coast. Slow moving 5h low crosses the TN/KY Valleys tomorrow as large dry slot spreads over the southeast. Any dynamics associated with the mid-level low will remain north of the area and the low lifts out before strong advection can get going. High pressure builds in from the west late Thu with deep westerly flow in place as the period ends. Highs will range from near to slightly above climo along the coast (where the front moves onshore) to well below climo inland where the wedge holds strong. Most areas will experience highs before noon. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...No pcpn expected! A dry fcst! Temps this period running about 1 to possibly 2 Cats below normal. The mid-level closed low and associated dynamics will be opening and accelerating thru the NE states during Thu night. A sfc trof or secondary sfc cold front associated with it will sweep across the FA overnight Thu resulting in a slight veer of the sfc wind field from W to WNW-NW. First half of Fri will be blustery with the hier wind gusts in the morning due to leftover CAA and a tightened sfc pg. By Fri night and continuing into Sat, the center of sfc high pressure will be in the neighborhood. Expect tranquil wx with skies mostly clear and winds generally 0 to 3 mph Fri night and 5 to 9 mph during Sat. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Thru Monday, The longwave pattern aloft paints a low amplitude trof covering nearly the entire U.S. with the trof axis west of the ILM CWA. The flow aloft will generally be westerly with equal inputs from the flow out of Canada, ie. northern jet, and the subtropical jet or the southern jet. As a result, no major storm systems thru Mon with temps each day right at normal for this time of the year. For Tue into Wed period, difficult to say if the longwave pattern is in the midst of changing. Or, is it just potent mid level impulses that dive out of Canada to amplify the upper trof resulting in a possible quick low pressure system affecting the East Coast in he mid to mainly late week period of next week. This will be our 1st shot of pcpn in almost a week if any of these s/w mid-level trofs materialize. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 18Z...Current VFR conditions at all terminals. Ceilings around 3 kft at CRE/MYR, and scattered low clouds at FLO, may cause terminals to fluctuate between VFR and MVFR this afternoon. Winds currently strong, between 10 and 15 kts, from the northeast and expected to remain same overnight. Winds will back to a more westerly flow towards end of TAF period around midday tomorrow. Precipitation still expected across the area late tonight into tomorrow, but have delayed timing slightly with best chances of widespread rain around 6z. Scattered showers possible before that, especially at FLO, beginning 0z. Expect clouds to lower to MVFR around 6z with precipitation, and subsequently to IFR few hours later through end of TAF period. Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR continuing through Thurs as another low pressure system lifts across the Southeast through mid week, leaving unsettled weather. Drier, VFR conditions Friday into the weekend. Dry cold frontal passage expected late Monday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Northeast flow will strengthen a little more this evening as low pressure consolidates over FL before moving northeast. Gale warning remains in effect with sustained speeds likely ending up short of 34 kt, but with gusts in excess of 34 kt, which are the main reason for the headline. Low pressure moves into the area early Thu with winds decreasing and veering to east and then southeast then finally southwest by Thu afternoon. Seas approaching double digits in some areas overnight will subside in response to southwest winds during Thu. However, an SCA will likely be needed for the remainder of Thu morning and at least a part of Thu afternoon. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...SCA conditions likely after the Gale for Thu night and continuing into 1st half of Fri. This a result of a tightened sfc pg and ongoing CAA and drier air advecting across the local waters. The sfc pg will relax during Fri aftn and night. The CAA will have become neutral Fri aftn and night. As a result, will see diminishing winds to well below SCA thresholds by dusk Fri. Did not go as low as guidance but still will remain below any SCA or SCEC thresholds. Significant seas will peak Thu night during the pre-dawn Fri hrs. But with a decreased fetch under an offshore wind trajectory during this period, overall sig. seas will be in a subsiding trend. It will be slow initially due to the ESE swell at 9 second periods but eventually the shorter period wind driven waves will dominate. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...With a rather relaxed sfc pg thruout the period, winds will stay below 15 kt and quite possibly AOB 10 kt for a portion of the time. This in turn will result in short period wind driven waves that should not be a problem to boaters. However, the 9+ second period ESE ground swell will likely become the dominate input to the significant seas formula. Wavewatch3 indicates a 2 to 3 ft possibly up to 4 feet ESE ground swell at the advertised 9+ second periods. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Thursday for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...DCH AVIATION...VAO is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.