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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 192331
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
730 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will linger offshore through the end of the week.
A backdoor cold front will bring some very small rain chances
Monday through Tuesday. Once the front lifts out to the north
Thursday a summerlike hot airmass will move into the Carolinas.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 619 PM Sunday...Popcorn cumulus inland of fair weather
variety will dissolve like butter with loss of surface heating.
Movies from satellite show little impediments for clear sky to
debut, opening the curtains to an unobstructed night-time sky,
not very long following night-fall. Gusts are easing with latest
10-meter wind forecasts showing sustained speeds dropping to
around 6 mph by midnight. This may aid in patches of mist 2
miles or greater visibility, over interior NE SC into daybreak,
but short-lived after sunrise.

As of 3 PM Sunday...No weather concerns through Monday
afternoon, although some general showers and thunderstorms are
possible Monday afternoon.

Cumulus field on visible satellite imagery inland across the region,
with temperatures into the upper 80s to lower 90s in some spots,
which is a few degrees cooler than this time yesterday.  Afternoon
high temperatures are still expected to perhaps squeak out a few
more degrees this afternoon, which is still running about 10 degrees
above normal.

Relatively quiet conditions as high pressure aloft remains the
dominant force behind mostly clear skies and dry conditions today
and tonight.  Some model guidance is hinting at fog development
again overnight and into the morning hours, but did not have enough
confidence to place into the forecast.

A weak front will approach the region Monday and may spark a few
afternoon showers and thunderstorms.  Model sounding profiles have a
decent amount of instability, but little or no wind/shear to keep
long lived storms moving.  Expecting a few isolated storms to pop
up, but severe weather is not anticipated.  Spotter activation is
not expected at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Despite the mid level ridge in place through
the period a backdoor cold front sagging into the area will call for
some very low rain chances. Slightly higher rain chances may be
warranted for northern zones as a shortwave disturbance streaks by
Monday night. The GFS has another trailing vort Tuesday but it
appears to be borne of feedback and then advected across the area.
Otherwise the main headline will be above normal temperatures as the
building ridge provides deep layer warmth. Some slightly
cooler/closer to climo temps may sneak into northeastern counties
Tuesday night behind the sagging boundary.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...High pressure building in behind backdoor cold
front to put off heat wave by one day. With the boundary
weakening/lifting out by Thursday however the stage will be set for
summertime heat as 595 dam ridge builds over FL panhandle. Lower 90s
coast/mid 90s inland will become commonplace for much of the rest of
the period with little to no rain chances. Two things will prevent
advisory level heat indices: the ridge being displaced to our SW
rather than overhead as well as offshore high pressure offshore
remaining weak precluding much advection of moisture/dewpoints
locally.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 00Z...Predominately VFR throughout the period. Potential for
IFR/LIFR stratus tomorrow morning, especially inland, but confidence
is low at the moment.  Light S to SW winds expected overnight with
speeds of about 10 KT after sunrise.  Gusts to 15 KT are expected
along the coast toward about noon.

Extended Outlook...Predominately VFR through mid week as high
pressure dominates. Slight chance of brief MVFR conditions each
morning from low stratus and/or fog.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
As of 3 PM Sunday...High pressure dominates with quiet weather
today and tonight. Onshore winds through Monday between 10 and
15 kts and waves between 2 and 3 feet mainly from the southeast
between 4 and 6 seconds. Offshore thunderstorms are possible
Monday afternoon as a front approaches from the west, which
could bring locally higher seas and wind gusts.

Southwesterly flow will lighten and veer Monday night into
Tuesday with the approach of a sagging cold front. Very light
onshore flow is then slated for Tuesday and Tuesday night. Seas
will tend to stay in the 2-3ft range. Easterly flow continues
into Wednesday but then a switch to southerly flow slated by
Thursday as the boundary lifts back to the north.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astrological high tides will create higher than normal tides tonight
for area beaches, including Wrightsville and Myrtle Beaches, around
or just after sunset.  Advisory level tides are expected to be
reached for inland New Hanover county, and a coastal flood advisory
has been issued for this evening between 10 PM and 2 AM Monday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Monday for NCZ107.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...MCK/8
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...31
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MCK