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000
FXUS62 KILM 142048
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
348 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds will thicken and lower this evening with periods of
light rain, possibly moderate to heavy at times developing
overnight as low pressure approaches from the southwest. The low
will hug the Carolina Coasts as it lifts northeast across the
forecast area Thu morning. A rumble of thunder will also be
possible. In the wake of the low, drier and near normal
temperatures will work its way across the forecast area Thu
night and Friday and will likely persist into and thru the
upcoming weekend. A dry cold frontal passage will occur Monday
night, bringing a surge of continued cool and dry air thru the
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...Surface wave developing along front
stalled across central FL will slowly move northeast this
evening and overnight. The wave will develop into a surface low
as it moves north, increasing isentropic lift across the local
area. Strong low level jetting develops overnight, up to 60 kt
around 3k ft at its peak. Strong southeast flow just above the
surface and strong southwest flow aloft will spread an abundance
of tropical moisture over the region. Forecast soundings have
precipitable water peaking between 1.8 to 2 inches, values which
exceed the max all time based on sounding climatology. Strong
lift coupled with abundant moisture will produce widespread
heavy rain overnight with convective elements developing closer
to coast as the low approaches. Front may move onshore just
ahead of the low Thu morning. Do not think the boundary would
push very far inland, but this would allow for a period of time
where strong to severe storms will be possible along the
immediate coast, mainly from 10-15Z. Temperatures will gradually
increase overnight, with lows likely to occur before midnight.
Along the coast temps could rise 10 degrees or more overnight if
the front moves onshore.

Widespread heavy rain decreases quickly following the passage
of the surface low, although low level moisture will linger
across the region through the end of the period. Low cloud is
likely to linger through the afternoon despite much drier air
aloft spreading over the area. Light rain and drizzle will
remain a possibility into the afternoon, especially along the
coast. Slow moving 5h low crosses the TN/KY Valleys tomorrow as
large dry slot spreads over the southeast. Any dynamics
associated with the mid-level low will remain north of the area
and the low lifts out before strong advection can get going.
High pressure builds in from the west late Thu with deep
westerly flow in place as the period ends. Highs will range from
near to slightly above climo along the coast (where the front
moves onshore) to well below climo inland where the wedge holds
strong. Most areas will experience highs before noon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...No pcpn expected! A dry fcst! Temps
this period running about 1 to possibly 2 Cats below normal. The
mid-level closed low and associated dynamics will be opening
and accelerating thru the NE states during Thu night. A sfc trof
or secondary sfc cold front associated with it will sweep
across the FA overnight Thu resulting in a slight veer of the
sfc wind field from W to WNW-NW. First half of Fri will be
blustery with the hier wind gusts in the morning due to leftover
CAA and a tightened sfc pg. By Fri night and continuing into Sat,
the center of sfc high pressure will be in the neighborhood.
Expect tranquil wx with skies mostly clear and winds generally 0
to 3 mph Fri night and 5 to 9 mph during Sat.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...Thru Monday, The longwave pattern
aloft paints a low amplitude trof covering nearly the entire
U.S. with the trof axis west of the ILM CWA. The flow aloft will
generally be westerly with equal inputs from the flow out of
Canada, ie. northern jet, and the subtropical jet or the
southern jet. As a result, no major storm systems thru Mon with
temps each day right at normal for this time of the year.

For Tue into Wed period, difficult to say if the longwave
pattern is in the midst of changing. Or, is it just potent mid
level impulses that dive out of Canada to amplify the upper trof
resulting in a possible quick low pressure system affecting the
East Coast in he mid to mainly late week period of next week.
This will be our 1st shot of pcpn in almost a week if any of
these s/w mid-level trofs materialize.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 18Z...Current VFR conditions at all terminals. Ceilings
around 3 kft at CRE/MYR, and scattered low clouds at FLO, may
cause terminals to fluctuate between VFR and MVFR this afternoon.
Winds currently strong, between 10 and 15 kts, from the northeast
and expected to remain same overnight. Winds will back to a more
westerly flow towards end of TAF period around midday tomorrow.
Precipitation still expected across the area late tonight into
tomorrow, but have delayed timing slightly with best chances of
widespread rain around 6z. Scattered showers possible before
that, especially at FLO, beginning 0z. Expect clouds to lower
to MVFR around 6z with precipitation, and subsequently to IFR
few hours later through end of TAF period.

Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR continuing through Thurs as another
low pressure system lifts across the Southeast through mid
week, leaving unsettled weather. Drier, VFR conditions Friday
into the weekend. Dry cold frontal passage expected late Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...Northeast flow will strengthen a little
more this evening as low pressure consolidates over FL before
moving northeast. Gale warning remains in effect with sustained
speeds likely ending up short of 34 kt, but with gusts in excess
of 34 kt, which are the main reason for the headline. Low
pressure moves into the area early Thu with winds decreasing and
veering to east and then southeast then finally southwest by
Thu afternoon. Seas approaching double digits in some areas
overnight will subside in response to southwest winds during
Thu. However, an SCA will likely be needed for the remainder of
Thu morning and at least a part of Thu afternoon.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...SCA conditions likely after the Gale
for Thu night and continuing into 1st half of Fri. This a
result of a tightened sfc pg and ongoing CAA and drier air
advecting across the local waters. The sfc pg will relax during
Fri aftn and night. The CAA will have become neutral Fri aftn
and night. As a result, will see diminishing winds to well below
SCA thresholds by dusk Fri. Did not go as low as guidance but
still will remain below any SCA or SCEC thresholds. Significant
seas will peak Thu night during the pre-dawn Fri hrs. But with a
decreased fetch under an offshore wind trajectory during this
period, overall sig. seas will be in a subsiding trend. It will
be slow initially due to the ESE swell at 9 second periods but
eventually the shorter period wind driven waves will dominate.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...With a rather relaxed sfc pg thruout
the period, winds will stay below 15 kt and quite possibly AOB
10 kt for a portion of the time. This in turn will result in
short period wind driven waves that should not be a problem to
boaters. However, the 9+ second period ESE ground swell will
likely become the dominate input to the significant seas
formula. Wavewatch3 indicates a 2 to 3 ft possibly up to 4 feet
ESE ground swell at the advertised 9+ second periods.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Thursday for AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...VAO