National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 251618
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1215 PM EDT Mon May 25 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary weakens over the area today as high pressure
remains off to the northeast. High pressure remains offshore mid to
late week with weak waves of low pressure over the Southeast states
leading to summer-like weather with more widespread showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Forecast remains on track this morning with isolated
thunderstorms possible mainly along and west of I-95 later
today.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Latest sfc analysis shows a weak frontal boundary directly over
the area with high pressure off to the NE. The front will
further weaken today, allowing rain chances to be lower than
yesterday...mainly just 20-30% over the western half of the
area. Enough instability again for TSTMs, but no severe wx
expected and just some heavy downpours possible. Cooler temps
today with ENE flow...highs only in the lwr 80s most areas.
Typical drop off in convection for tonight with low temps in
the low/mid 60s. Dry then early Tue with increasing rain chances
from S to N especially in the aftn as mid-level shortwave
energy pivots in from the S in conjunction with increasing deep
layer moisture.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Very unsettled through the period as low pressure of tropical origin
moves up the coast. Regardless of the overall thermal structure of
the system (it will likely spend most of its lifetime with a good
portion of its circulation over land) it should be an efficient rain-
producer as forecast soundings show deep layer saturation favorable
for warm rain development. Have raised QPF considerably and will
start to mention minor flooding possibilities in the HWO.  The best
window for heavy rain will be ahead of the system during the
strongest onshore flow Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Later
Wednesday this will be displaced to our north regardless of whether
the circulation still persists (per WRF) or washes out (per GFS/EC).
The latter idea seems to have much more merit given the low will be
overland and have no frontal structure.  Both nights will be on the
mild side while Wednesday will be a few degrees below climo both due
mainly to cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Thursday still unsettled as deep layer moisture remains in place
though a lack of significant forcing will call for some relatively
lighter areal amounts (deep convection where it develops would be
slow moving and capable of some higher totals).  Low level synoptic
lift will gradually come into play late in the week as a cold front
approaches. Mid level flow will veer from southerly to westerly
however and this should cut down on the deep layer moisture observed
in the days prior (though interestingly GFS forecasts soundings do
not indicate this yet).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Predominately MVFR ceilings early, becoming VFR by mid afternoon.
Any convection will probably be southwest of the CWA. Tonight, a VFR
stratocu ceiling may lower to near IFR by daybreak. Tuesday,
predominately VFR with pockets of MVFR. Any convection will probably
start after the forecast period.

Extended Outlook...VFR Tuesday with a small chance of MVFR cigs.
Unsettled weather Wednesday through Saturday with a good chance of
rain each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions continue for today through
daytime Tue with a frontal boundary weakening over the area and
sfc high pressure off to the NE. ENE winds consistently 10-15
kt during this timeframe with 2-4 ft seas, which includes a 1 ft
8-9 second ESE swell.

Low pressure will develop over Florida and move north across the
area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Small Craft Advisory appears
likely for wind and/or seas. Wind direction initially easterly but
the approach of the low will lead to a turn to southeast/south as it
takes an inland track. Wind speeds should peak Wednesday morning
before the low weakens later Wednesday. Thursday and Friday will
bring south to southwest winds on the western fringe of Atlantic
high pressure.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
UPDATE...MCK
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43
MARINE...MAS/MBB