Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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193 FXUS62 KILM 241936 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 336 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front moving into the area will bring thunderstorms to the area this evening. This front will dissipate over the area on Wednesday. Conditions will be hot and humid through the weekend. A second front will move across the region on Thursday bring a good chance of Thunderstorms. A third front will move into the area by Sunday and this will bring slightly cooler temperatures to the region on Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The cold front looks to have hung up to our west with this convection mostly due to a shortwave aloft, some drier air pushing in, and just a generally unstable atmosphere due to temps/dewpoints. The dry air is sequestering most of the activity which is expected to shift towards the coast by midnight as the actual front moves through. Lows will be tricky again tonight but hopefully not as warm as yesterday as it looks like the boundary sticks to the coast overnight. Clouds may be possible along the coast but unsure about fog inland due to the modest rainfall totals we`re seeing currently. Tomorrow the front will lift back to the north. Have cooler conditions near the coast with warmer temps inland. Isolated convection is possible during the afternoon primarily near the coast and in NE SC. No severe weather is expected at this time.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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An old front will shift northward over the forecast area on Tuesday evening and dissipate by Wednesday morning. In the upper levels, a weak high will develop on Wednesday before a mid-level trough shifts into the Carolinas. Hot and humid conditions will continue with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will reach the upper 90 inland and lower 90s on the coast. Lows will range between 72 and 75 degrees.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The next best chance of precipitation is Thursday as a surface front moves into our region and dissipates on Friday. A second surface front moves to the coast Sunday night, and another good chance for thunderstorms will help with the current rain deficit. Hot and muggy conditions will continue with a slight cool down on Monday. Highs in the mid-90s inland are expected Thursday through Sunday and lower 90s by Monday. Heat advisory conditions are possible each afternoon between Thursday and Sunday, but we`re keeping a close eye on it.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Showers with some embedded thunder ongoing near inland terminals. Tried to add as much timing as possible for impacts in storms but some amendments may be needed later in the day, particularly past 00Z, as coverage is uncertain. Main threats in stronger storms will be lowered VSBYs in heavy rain and possibly damaging wind gusts. Showers and storms should be towards the coast by midnight, moving offshore around 2am. Overnight hazards inland will depend on how much rain the terminals think as winds will be light so fog may be possible. Near the coast some low stratus may be more likely. Tried to trend towards these threats in the TAFs. Extended Outlook... VFR should prevail outside of periodic MVFR/IFR during diurnal showers/thunderstorms plus spotty morning low clouds/fog. && .MARINE...
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Through Tuesday, Small Craft Conditions linger in our NC waters primarily due to seas. Isolated strong storms are possible over the waters this evening ahead of a front. Conditions should start to improve as the front reaches the coast late tonight before lifting back north through Tuesday. Winds will turn to the ESE near 10-15 kts with seas 2-3 ft. Tuesday Night through Saturday, Winds from the southeast to southwest through most of the forecast period, with winds generally around 10 knots. Seas will range between 2 and 3 feet. No advisories are expected.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250- 252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE... NEAR TERM...LEW SHORT TERM...RH LONG TERM...RH AVIATION...LEW MARINE...ILM