Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 082102 AAA AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Wilmington NC 402 PM EST Mon Mar 8 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Center of high pressure overhead, will slowly shift offshore during the week. Ridging from this high will continue to extend back across the Carolinas. Dry conditions with mostly sunny days and clear nights will continue thru Sat. A pronounced warming trend will engulf the area with widespread 70s for highs during the mid to late week period. A cold front may approach the area late next weekend, possibly accompanied by a few showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Surface high pressure centered over the Appalachians will shift off the coast by Tuesday. Very dry aloft as 500 mb heights build overhead as a deep trough moves onto the west coast. So no clouds or precipitation is expected. Winds will be light from the southwest before becoming more southerly on Tuesday afternoon. Winds are expected to be light less than 6 mph, with a resultant sea-breeze will increase only a few mph from the south. An excellent radiational cooling night, calm winds, and dry air in the boundary layer and aloft will see temperatures falling to freezing to below freezing in the ordinarily cold sports. Highs will rebound as they reach around 70 inland to the middle 60s at the coast. Low on Wednesday will drop to about 40 degrees or a few degrees below that. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... For Wed, ridge axis aloft will extend up the Eastern SeaBoard from the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, ie. from near the Yucatan Peninsula. At the sfc, the center of high pressure over the Carolinas the previous day, will slowly position itself just offshore by Thu morning. During Thu, the ridge axis aloft will continue across the Carolinas but extend out over the Atlantic north of the Carolinas. The center of sfc high pressure will slide further offshore but continue to ridge back across both Carolinas. In general, will continue to experience subsidence both days with only clouds to affect the FA this period will be cirrus that makes it across the ridge axis aloft and possible few/sct daytime cu along the sfc resultant boundary, aka sea breeze. Will continue to advertise the warming trend, with Thu max hier than Wed. With adjacent Atlantic SSTS in the 50s, should have an active sea breeze both days, limiting immediate coast highs to the 60s. Wed night/Thu morning min temps will be influenced by decent rad cooling conditions. Whereas, Thu night/Fri morning lows will see a low level SSW-SW jet that keeps low levels mixed enough to prevent widespread rad cooling. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The mainstay ridging aloft is progged to flatten across the area this period, allowing a sfc cold front to drop southward to the FA Sat into Sun. Models have become drier with this feature and at 1 point delays its push to and and across the area during Sun. Have backed POPs accompanying this CFP to low chance at best, with showers and continued no thunder. In addition, have upped overall temps Fri, Sat and stayed with a model consensus for Sun. Looking at basically 10-15 degrees above normal thru Sat and near normal for Sun. && .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Skies will be nearly cloud free through the forecast period. A south southwest resultant is expected along the coast, with cooler temperatures. Light winds tonight with little or no fog expected. Light southwest flow on Tuesday with warmer temperatures. Extended Outlook...VFR. && .MARINE... Through Tuesday Night...high pressure will shift off the coast by Tuesday night, and winds will be light from the southwest at 5 to 10 knots. Winds will become southerly near the beach with resultant sea- breeze development on Tuesday. Seas will run 1 to 2 feet through the period. Wednesday through Saturday... Sfc ridge axis will generally extend across the waters thru Fri. The axis will extend WSW from the center of high pressure that will slowly be retreating further offshore during this period. As a result, wind directions will range from ESE-S depending on the location of the axis. The sfc ridge axis will drop south of the FA by Sat with winds having a westerly component to them beginning Fri. The sfc pg will remain relaxed thru early Fri with speeds 10 kt or less. A slight tightening to the sfc pg, ahead of a cold front later Fri into Sat will result in 10-15 kt speeds. Slightly hier speeds within 10 nm of the coast will be driven by the diurnally induced sea breeze each day. Seas generally around 2 ft thru Thu, 2 to 4 ft Fri into Sat. An easterly 9 to 10 second period will generally dominate the seas with some nearshore chop added by the daily sea breeze. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH NEAR TERM...RH SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...DCH AVIATION...43 MARINE...DCH/RH

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