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000
FXUS62 KILM 082102 AAA
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
402 PM EST Mon Mar 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Center of high pressure overhead, will slowly shift offshore
during the week. Ridging from this high will continue to extend
back across the Carolinas. Dry conditions with mostly sunny
days and clear nights will continue thru Sat. A pronounced
warming trend will engulf the area with widespread 70s for highs
during the mid to late week period. A cold front may approach
the area late next weekend, possibly accompanied by a few
showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure centered over the Appalachians will shift
off the coast by Tuesday. Very dry aloft as 500 mb heights
build overhead as a deep trough moves onto the west coast. So no
clouds or precipitation is expected.

Winds will be light from the southwest before becoming more
southerly on Tuesday afternoon. Winds are expected to be light
less than 6 mph, with a resultant sea-breeze will increase only
a few mph from the south.

An excellent radiational cooling night, calm winds, and dry air
in the boundary layer and aloft will see temperatures falling
to freezing to below freezing in the ordinarily cold sports.
Highs will rebound as they reach around 70 inland to the middle
60s at the coast. Low on Wednesday will drop to about 40 degrees
or a few degrees below that.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
For Wed, ridge axis aloft will extend up the Eastern SeaBoard
from the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, ie. from near the Yucatan
Peninsula. At the sfc, the center of high pressure over the
Carolinas the previous day, will slowly position itself
just offshore by Thu morning. During Thu, the ridge axis aloft
will continue across the Carolinas but extend out over the
Atlantic north of the Carolinas. The center of sfc high pressure
will slide further offshore but continue to ridge back across
both Carolinas. In general, will continue to experience
subsidence both days with only clouds to affect the FA this
period will be cirrus that makes it across the ridge axis aloft
and possible few/sct daytime cu along the sfc resultant boundary,
aka sea breeze. Will continue to advertise the warming trend,
with Thu max hier than Wed. With adjacent Atlantic SSTS in the
50s, should have an active sea breeze both days, limiting
immediate coast highs to the 60s. Wed night/Thu morning min
temps will be influenced by decent rad cooling conditions.
Whereas, Thu night/Fri morning lows will see a low level SSW-SW
jet that keeps low levels mixed enough to prevent widespread rad
cooling.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The mainstay ridging aloft is progged to flatten across the
area this period, allowing a sfc cold front to drop southward to
the FA Sat into Sun. Models have become drier with this feature
and at 1 point delays its push to and and across the area during
Sun. Have backed POPs accompanying this CFP to low chance at
best, with showers and continued no thunder. In addition, have
upped overall temps Fri, Sat and stayed with a model consensus
for Sun. Looking at basically 10-15 degrees above normal thru
Sat and near normal for Sun.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Skies will be nearly cloud free through the forecast period.
A south southwest resultant is expected along the coast, with
cooler temperatures. Light winds tonight with little or no fog
expected. Light southwest flow on Tuesday with warmer
temperatures.

Extended Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday Night...high pressure will shift off the coast
by Tuesday night, and winds will be light from the southwest at
5 to 10 knots. Winds will become southerly near the beach with
resultant sea- breeze development on Tuesday. Seas will run 1 to
2 feet through the period.


Wednesday through Saturday...
Sfc ridge axis will generally extend across the waters thru Fri.
The axis will extend WSW from the center of high pressure that
will slowly be retreating further offshore during this period.
As a result, wind directions will range from ESE-S depending on
the location of the axis. The sfc ridge axis will drop south of
the FA by Sat with winds having a westerly component to them
beginning Fri. The sfc pg will remain relaxed thru early Fri
with speeds 10 kt or less. A slight tightening to the sfc pg,
ahead of a cold front later Fri into Sat will result in 10-15
kt speeds. Slightly hier speeds within 10 nm of the coast will
be driven by the diurnally induced sea breeze each day. Seas
generally around 2 ft thru Thu, 2 to 4 ft Fri into Sat. An
easterly 9 to 10 second period will generally dominate the seas
with some nearshore chop added by the daily sea breeze.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...RH
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...43
MARINE...DCH/RH