Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 050328 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1128 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler and drier air will move in behind a cold front through Monday. A brief warmup Tuesday and Wednesday will be followed by a slow- moving cold front which will bring our next chance for rain during the midweek period. A slight cooldown arrives behind this cold front for late in the week. && .UPDATE...
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Coastal Flood Advisory for the area beaches has expired, but ongoing flooding is expected along the Lower Cape Fear River including Downtown Wilmington through 2 AM EDT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Pesky low clouds have remained trapped below an inversion much of the day but clearing is working in from the northeast. Forecast reflects the expectation that the low clouds will lift between now and sunset but there remains the possibility of redevelopment overnight if this doesn`t occur. Greatest potential of low clouds lingering into the overnight is over the southern and western areas. Much of Monday should be mainly sunny after the morning inversion lifts. Lows tonight will fall well below normal into the low to mid 50s with highs Monday staying below normal in the upper 70s near the coast to the lower 80s inland. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A mid level cyclonic flow will be in place across the area through the short term period with a somewhat muted surface pattern in place. This type of set up is seemingly always challenged for deep moisture/convection but there is enough to warrant chance pops mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. The activity Tuesday looks more NE sea breeze oriented then pushing off the coast perhaps similar to last Friday while a more synoptic based front makes an appearance Wednesday. Overall highs and lows should net near normal but more specifically a little cooler on the lows and warmer on the highs. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The pattern established during the mid week period of a baroclinic zone draped west to east across the area will continue to bring chance pops Thursday decreasing Friday. A potent shortwave embedded in the overall synoptic cyclonic flow will push the front well to the south setting least at this point a dry and very comfortable weekend. In fact the cool push begins late Thursday with lows several mornings dropping to near 60 and highs in the lower to middle 80s with maybe an increase late in the period. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High confidence in VFR conditions across SE NC and NE SC for the 00Z TAF period as high pressure builds from the north bringing drier low-level air to the region. Slightly elevated N/NE winds will diminish and veer to SW/W inland and S/SE near the coast Monday. Extended Outlook... Mainly VFR conditions are expected later Monday through Thursday. && .MARINE... Through Monday... NE winds of 20 to 25 KT w/ some higher gusts will diminish later overnight, falling to 10 to 15 KT for Monday. Seas of 4 to 7 FT will slowly subside through the period but stay at least 6 ft through around daybreak when the Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through. Monday Night through Friday... A southwest flow will be in place through mid week or so. Overall speeds should be in a range of 10-15 knots with an interval of stronger speeds possible overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday. The flow will acquire a more westerly component Wednesday then transition to more of a NE flow later in the week as a front pushes south. In regards to significant seas, a range of 2-4 feet will mostly be in place higher of course late Tuesday and Wednesday with the stronger winds. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... High tides surrounding this weekend`s full moon will continue to produce decent coastal flooding at the beaches and along the lower Cape Fear River around Wilmington during this evening`s high tide cycle and likely again Monday night, possibly even continuing Tuesday night along the lower Cape Fear River. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for NCZ107. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252-254- 256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...21 NEAR TERM...31 SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...RJB MARINE...RJB/SHK TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.