Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 241348 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 948 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will bring a chance of showers to the area Sunday. Shower chances diminish next week with above- normal temperatures and muggy conditions continuing. A complex storm system will bring good chances of rain late in the period. && .UPDATE... Going forecast for the remainder of the day was in good shape and little in the way of change was made over land. Over the waters, seas within 20 NM have fallen below 6 FT so the Small Craft Advisory has been canceled. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Weak high pressure offshore and southerly flow across the region will bring another day of above normal temperatures in the low to mid 80s today with plenty of sunshine. The next round of weather moves in for Sunday as a cold front approaches bringing cooler weather closer to normal in the mid to upper 70s and chances for rain showers and rumbles of thunder Sunday afternoon. Patchy fog is also a possibility again west of highway 17 and possibly dense at times along and west of I-95. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The mid level flow will transition from a westerly flow in the wake of a shortwave Sunday to more of a southwest flow by the end of the period, Tuesday evening. The forecast remains dry although we should see a similar pattern of convective clouds develop during the day seemingly capable of showers but limited just enough by the overall profile. Morning fog is possible as well. Temperatures will warm once again into the 80s Tuesday slightly cooler for Monday`s highs. Overnight lows will be in the lower to middle 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The extended forecast has taken a hard turn to more unsettled. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico possibly in the form of a tropical entity will stream across assisted by a shortwave moving across the Tennessee Valley. Pops have been trended upward across the board with the highest values Thursday and Friday when the best forcing and moisture are coupled. Be the very end of the period the system moves out as it becomes quiet progressive. Some cooling temperatures behind the system as well but plenty warm otherwise. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Night fog satellite imagery shows pockets of LIFR fog/stratus, mainly inland. Most of the obscuration will be mixed out by 14Z. Light gradient will allow onshore flow by late morning. A weak system approaches from the west tonight. Extended Outlook...Localized IFR conditions may develop early Sunday morning from ground fog. A chance for MVFR showers and isolated tstorms Sunday as a front slowly pushes through before dissipating. Mainly VFR Mon through Wed. && .MARINE... Through Sunday...Long period swell from hurricane Epsilon continue to impact the coastline from the east between 12 and 14 seconds with waveheights between 4 and 6 feet. These seas will create hazardous conditions for inexperienced mariners and smaller vessels navigating the coastal waters today. While easterly swell continues over the next 36 hours, seas decrease heading into Sunday between 2 and 4 feet. Winds will vary in direction this weekend, but stays generally between 5 and 10 kts. Chances for thunderstorms with locally higher winds and waves Sunday as a cold front approaches from the west. Sunday night through Wednesday...Weakly forced winds and seas will be in place for most of the period. A synoptic wind from the northeast will prevail for early next week. As a system approaches from the west an onshore flow will develop followed by a better defined southwest flow with the system late in the work week. Overall wind speeds will be ten knots or so increasing to the higher end of a 10-15 knot range late. Significant seas will generally follow the winds and for the most part a 2-4 ft range will be in place. Higher seas possibly into small craft criteria may develop late with the higher winds. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. NC...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...31 NEAR TERM...MCK SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...MCK MARINE...MCK/SHK

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