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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 230736
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
336 AM EDT Mon May 23 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
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Good chances for showers and thunderstorms will be in place for
most of the week as high pressure remains offshore and low
pressure resides well to the west.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A weak cold front has essentially stalled across east-central North
Carolina. Surface high pressure offshore is maintaining an
unseasonably warm and humid southwesterly wind across the area. A
compact area of low pressure recently came ashore near Pensacola,
FL. Southerly winds funneled between it and offshore high pressure
will help to maintain this tropical airmass across the Carolinas
through tonight.

The upper level portion of the FL Panhandle low will shear off from
the surface center today, accelerating northeastward and across the
western Carolinas by this evening. Faster mid/upper level flow ahead
of this feature will increase wind shear across the central
Carolinas and into the Pee Dee region this afternoon. Bulk shear (0-
6 km) will exceed 30 knots by late afternoon. HREF ensembles suggest
there is a reasonably good chance a cluster of thunderstorms will
form this afternoon and approach the I-95 corridor between Florence
and Lumberton around 4 pm. NAM forecast soundings show over 2000
J/kg of CAPE with an LI of -7 at Florence, supporting a threat of
hail or wet microbursts. The kinematic environment could support a
tornado, however more impressive 0-1 km helicity values should
largely remain north and west of our forecast area where surface
winds are more strongly backed near the stalled front. Convective
activity may tend to dissipate as it moves east of I-95 and toward
the Cape Fear area later in the evening.

Forecast highs today range from the mid to upper 80s except cooler
on the beaches with onshore winds. Forecast lows tonight are on the
warm end of guidance given clouds and the continued unseasonably
humid airmass. Local verification data over the past five days shows
GFS MOS has averaged 3 degrees too cool with lows at ILM and 4
degrees too cool at FLO. So far for the month of May observed
temperatures are the third warmest on record at ILM and FLO.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Forecast continues
to have a look and feel of summer during the midweek period.
Mid level ridging will be anchored offshore with deep cut off
low pressure across the Central Plains. This pattern will
continue to funnel moisture and intervals of forcing across the
area. The highest pops for the period occur Tuesday as mid level
dry air makes convection a bit more challenging Wednesday
although by no means out of the question. The temperature
forecast remains basically unchanged as wind fields do not show
the back door front making much progress south so highs remain
in the middle 50s or so with lows mostly in the middle to upper
60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The mid level pattern described
in the short term section will continue to evolve with the
trough and associated cold front moving east in time. Pops ramp
back up to at times likely for late Thursday into Friday morning
via the deep layer forcing. For the most part the weekend looks
dry but the eastward progression of the front this time of year
is increasingly problematic and maintained at least some
mention along the coast.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Multilayered clouds across the eastern Carolinas present an
interesting forecast challenge this morning. Although conditions
at currently VFR at all local airports, MVFR conditions are
possible now through 08z at KLBT due to thunderstorms in the
area. An outflow boundary extending south and west of these
storms could affect the KFLO airport between 07z-08z with MVFR
ceilings and a brief wind shift.

The larger concern will develop this afternoon as models are
consolidating their forecasts on a hefty line of thunderstorms
advancing eastward across NC/SC, reaching the KFLO and KLBT
airports between 20z-22z. This activity should weaken and
fragment as it approaches the coast around 00z with low
potential for thunderstorm impacts at KILM after 00z. MVFR
ceilings may also develop after 02z as a cold front pushes
southward.

Extended Outlook...Convection and occasional low ceilings will
remain in the forecast as tonight`s cold front stalls near the
area through early Wednesday. Thursday and Friday could see
late night/early morning low ceilings. Thunderstorm chances will
increase again late Friday as a front approaches from the west.

&&

.MARINE...
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Through Tonight...A cold front setting southward across North
Carolina will stall inland from the coast today. Light west-
southwest winds this morning will back around to the south this
afternoon mainly due to the seabreeze with speeds increasing to 10-
12 knots. While there could be an isolated shower or t-storm at
almost any point today, the models are focused in on a large cluster
of thunderstorms remaining inland this afternoon, perhaps weakening
and making it down to the coast after 9 PM.

Where models several days ago thought the cold front would move
through the area tonight and stall along the Georgia or South
Carolina coast, an compact area of low pressure that recently moved
ashore near Pensacola, FL will enhance the southerly winds across
the Carolinas tonight, keeping the front from dipping any farther
south than Cape Fear this evening. The boundary should begin to
return north late tonight.

Seas currently around 2 feet in an even mix of 5 second wind waves
and 9 second southeast swell may increase to 3 feet at times across
the outer portion of the coastal waters tonight, otherwise no
significant changes are expected.

Tuesday through Friday...Somewhat modest wind fields for the
mid week period with a southerly component remaining in place.
A southwest flow becomes better defined later in the work week
as a front approaches and eventually pushes offshore for the
weekend. Overall wind speeds will be ten knots or less until
later Thursday when the range increases to 10-15 knots.
Significant seas will be around two feet early increasing with
the winds to 2-4 feet.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/SHK