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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 231126
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
726 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move across the area this afternoon and
evening bringing showers and thunderstorms some of which may be
strong to severe. The front will also bring much cooler
temperatures which will develop Wednesday and persist through
much of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 400 AM Tuesday...A strong cold front will approach the area
today and move across the area this evening. Much of the area will
likely be dry through midday with the best chance in the very near
term to see activity along the immediate coast and just offshore as
prefrontal convergence sets up. Still on track for a fairly linear
area of moderate to heavy showers and tstms to move SE across the
area along and behind main frontal boundary from roughly 20z Tue-03Z
Wed. SPC has the area in a Slight Risk of severe given sufficient
instability, shear and forcing...with main threat being damaging
wind gusts. Given progressive nature of system do not anticipate
widespread flooding although some nuisance flooding not out of
question.

Main change for tonight and tomorrow was to trim back pops a bit
especially inland areas with bulk of the guidance fairly dry after
6Z this evening outside of maybe some lingering activity near the
coast. Still expecting considerably cooler weather tomorrow (low to
mid 80s) too with anomalous N/NE winds around building high
pressure, along with lower heights aloft.

Regarding TD 3...significant impacts still not expected as the
system is expected to get absorbed into the aforementioned front.
Entrained moisture may enhance precip totals a bit next 24hrs and
the system will likely enhance Sly winds aimed at the area to our
south...which will keep rip current risk elevated into Wed.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Tuesday...Kinda of an uncertain forecast for the short term
period mainly via pops as guidance continues to waiver if and where
any post frontal activity may be. The latest cycle shows more of a
dry scenario and have adjusted pops in this (downward) direction.
The bigger and more certain story will be the cooler temperatures
with daytime highs in the middle 80s or so Thursday and overnight
lows mainly in the 60s sans extreme coastal areas. The moisture in
the form or clouds and or showers will certainly have something to
say about this as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 400 AM Tuesday...The mid level trough that will have been
responsible for the cool temperatures will be on the way out
leaving a weak mid level and surface pattern for that matter. We
are maintaining slight chance pops along mostly coastal and
southern areas where the best moisture will reside. Some
guidance has a glancing wave moving off the coast as well so
that may complicate things. Temperatures and dewpoints will be
on a somewhat deliberate increase.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 12Z...A few areas of showers are possible this morning along
the coast as an area of pre-frontal convergence interacts with the
sea breeze. This could be the focus for isolated showers and
thunderstorms during the early afternoon. This evening, expect a
cold front to approach from the west bringing with it widespread
thunderstorms with the possibility of damaging winds. Convection
should maintain a linear structure increasing our confidence in
timing a bit. Knowing the exact impacts will be difficult until the
line develops, but it is safe to say that every terminal will likely
see a temporary category or two reduction due to heavy rainfall
during the frontal passage. As the front moves east, it will stall
along the coast. Along the stalled front, expect showers to interact
with the marine BL and maintain their presence overnight. Moderate
confidence in stratus on Wednesday morning in the wake of the cold
front. The weather pattern then becomes more unsettled as TD3 begins
to interact with the stalled boundary leading to an enhanced chance
of rainfall and MVFR/IFR as a result. Limited effects from TD3
expected (mainly rain and gusty winds).

Extended Outlook...Lingering MVFR to IFR Wed as TD3 interacts with a
stalled frontal boundary. Becoming VFR Wed Eve into Thu as high
pressure rebuilds from north.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 400 AM Tuesday...

Have issued Small Craft Advisory late this
afternoon and this evening for a period of gusty SW winds and seas
right around 6ft in places. Short period nature of the seas will
also enhance the risk a bit so leaned towards side of caution in
issuing headline even though by definition winds/seas will be
marginal advisory level. A few showers and thunderstorms expected to
impact the waters this morning with prefrontal convergence, but
still expecting a more defined line to move offshore from 01-06Z
Wed. Some question on how it will hold together this timeframe, but
still some potential for gusty winds and frequent lightning along
and just behind main front. Significant marine impacts from TD 3 are
not expected although Sly swell may linger a bit into Wed as the
depression enhances fetch to our south.


Northeast winds will be in place most of the period as
surface high pressure resides in the Appalachians. Wind speeds are
stable in a 10-15 knot range. The flow becomes onshore late in the
period probably in the latter part of the weekend. As usual there
could be an embedded surge or two that may briefly increase wind
speeds. Significant seas are stable as well with a range of
generally 2-3 feet.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054-056.
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108.
     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NCZ110.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT
     tonight for AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...21
MARINE...ILM