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443
FXUS62 KILM 182046
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
346 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure will bring milder temperatures and some rain back
to the area through the rest of the weekend. An arctic cold
front will move through Sunday night bringing some dangerously
cold conditions mid week. In addition, there is an increasing
potential for some wintry precipitation late Tuesday into early
Wednesday and possibly again later in the week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Latest surface analysis shows a 1010 mb center of low pressure
located less than 200 miles ESE offshore of Wilmington, NC. This low
has brought the rain across the area today, aided by isentropic lift
from the shortwave aloft. This low has been pulling off to the ENE,
which is already starting to shut off the rain. Areas along and west
of I-95 have seen the end of the rain, for now.

Temperatures have been tricky this afternoon, as clouds and rain
have kept us cooler than expected. Visible channels from GOES-16 do
show some clearing that`s about to enter the Pee Dee region from the
west, roughly following the shortwave aloft. With this clearing on
the way, temperatures inland (i.e., along and west of I-95) stand a
good chance at ticking up a few degrees. Temperatures at the coast
should stay in the upper 40s to near 50 through the rest of this
afternoon, while highs may get up to near 55-57 as this clearing
pulls through.

This evening, we`ll see a lull in the activity, with nearly the
entire forecast area drying out for a few hours. As the night drags
on, an offshore warm front will pull northward, pumping more
moisture into the area once again. This sets the stage for rain to
spread out through the area from the southwest, aided by another
surface low to the west that drags through metro Atlanta and intro
the Carolina Piedmont. Lows tonight only dip down into mid-to-upper
40s at best, with the warm air advection preventing temperatures
from dropping significantly.

Rain continues early Sunday morning ahead of a cold front that will
be sweeping through the area by the early afternoon hours. This
front will start to bring mid-level dry air in from west to east,
gradually bringing an end to the rain chances by the afternoon. High
temperatures should be warmer than today, but how much warmer could
be tricky. The coastal areas should be locked in the warm sector for
much of the day, but thick cloud cover may limit just how far they
shoot up. Meanwhile, since drier, cooler air enters the inland areas
faster, highs should be a bit cooler there. Overall, look for a
temperature gradient across the area, ranging from the upper 50s to
near 60 in the Pee Dee region, to low-to-mid 60s at the coast.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Highlights:
*Very low risk of some black ice late Sun night
*Dry w/ below normal temps; wind chills near/below 15 degrees Mon
night

Confidence:
*Moderate to High

Details: No big changes to the previous forecast. Most of the rain
will have ended by the start of the period, although can`t rule out
a few light showers lingering into the early evening. Temps will be
falling pretty fast to the freezing point and thus any lingering wet
roads could freeze up leading to some black ice. The arctic air will
be strengthening its grip over the area Mon and especially Mon night
with highs barely reaching 40 degrees Mon and then likely falling
to 20 degrees or colder away from the coast Mon night w/ wind
chills at or below 15 degrees. Thus, a Cold Weather Advisory
will likely be needed.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Highlights:
*Well below normal temperatures through the period w/ near record
lows at times mid week, including an extended period of near/below
freezing temps likely for some
*Wintry precipitation possible Tue into Wed and again Thu night into
early Fri

Confidence:
*Moderate to High regarding temps; Low to Moderate regarding
precipitation

Details: No big changes with the latest forecast although confidence
is continuing to slowly increase in at least some wintry
precipitation late Tue into early Wed. Still a bit too early to
discuss snow/ice amounts but we are introducing very light snow
amounts Tue afternoon well inland. There are still questions
regarding how much warm air above the surface there will be which
makes the precip type/amounts quite tricky. Latest guidance seems to
be narrowing the window of snow potential a bit though with a few
inches possible. Dry/cold high pressure should then build back in
later Wednesday into early Thursday. However, another coastal low
may impact the area late week bringing the risk for more wintry
precipitation but more likely in the form of freezing rain given the
likely warmer air aloft.

We are still much more confident about the very cold temperatures
and wind chills through at least Thu. It`s even possible that temps
could be lower than forecast (into the single digits) as MOS
guidance is typically not as representative in such an abnormal
pattern and they don`t account for snow cover. We also want to point
out that some areas, especially inland, could see temps at or below
freezing for an extended period (on the order of days) so winter
safety precautions should be strongly considered prior to Monday
night. Cold Weather Advisories are likely for most areas much of the
time into Thursday morning. Wind chills of 5 degrees or less could
even occur, especially Tue/Wed nights, thus Extreme Cold Warnings
may be needed.
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&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Ceilings are bouncing between VFR and MVFR to open the 18Z TAF
period, with RA or +RA occasionally bringing IFR or MVFR
visibility restrictions. Low pressure is starting to pull
offshore, which has already brought an end to the rain at KFLO
and KLBT, and will end shortly for the coastal terminals. A
brief lull will continue until 00Z, where MVFR ceilings start to
overspread the area from the west. Rain comes back into the
picture after 06Z tonight, accompanied by a significant lowering
in visibilities and ceilings due to low stratus. Look for IFR
at best at this point, with some spots likely dipping down into
LIFR and VLIFR. This may last through much of the morning after
sunrise Sunday, though coverage in rain gradually decreases from
west to east. Restrictions may start to improve within the last
2-3 hours of the TAF period.

Extended Outlook...Gradual improvement expected after 18Z Sunday,
back to widespread VFR by that evening. Next chance for flight
restrictions comes late Tuesday into Wednesday, where a Gulf low
likely brings wintry precipitation to the area. Back to VFR
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Through Sunday...Southwesterly winds at around 10 kts will increase
late tonight as the gradient tightens ahead of a cold front. Winds
and seas will trigger a Small Craft Advisory at 6 AM EST Sunday
morning. As the front moves through the coastal waters Sunday
afternoon, winds will veer slightly to the west, and a few gusts up
to 30 kts are possible. Seas at 1-2 ft this evening will increase to
3-5 ft at the coast, 6-7 ft out 20 nm offshore by Sunday
afternoon.

Sunday night through Thursday night...Arctic high pressure will
prevail early to mid next week which will lead to elevated
winds/seas and the potential for Small Craft Advisory conditions Sun
night and again Tue through at least Wed. Wintry precipitation is
also possible Tue into Wed and again late Wed night into early
Thu.
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&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM EST Monday for
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...RJB/IGB