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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 260221
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1021 PM EDT Sun Apr 25 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will usher in clearing skies and seasonable
conditions into Tuesday. The high will slip offshore Tuesday
morning with temperatures warming through Friday. The next
chance of rain will come next weekend with the arrival of a cold
front.

&&

.UPDATE...
Water levels on the Cape Fear River have fallen below critical
thresholds, and therefore the advisory for inland New Hanover has
been cancelled.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Latest sfc analysis shows a cold front moving offshore with
high pressure stretching down from the Great Lakes to the
central Gulf coast. Dry wx through the Near Term period as this
high moves into and over the area. Light winds and good land
warming on Mon will allow for a decent sea breeze to develop,
but the column remains quite dry so no convection expected. High
temps range from the low 70s right at the coast to the mid/upr
70s inland. Winds turn southerly Mon night as the sfc high
shifts offshore, and could see some morning fog towards daybreak
near the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface and mid-level high pressure will be in control through the
middle of the week. Surface high will be just off the coast Tue
morning with mid-level subsidence increasing. Weak return flow on
Tue coupled with the subsidence will lead to highs near to slightly
above climo. Continued warming is expected Wed with highs running
well above climo. Very dry mid-levels, a result of the subsidence,
and lack of forcing will keep the region free of rainfall. May see
some high clouds from time to time, especially on Wed with moisture
increasing around 300mb. Southerly winds and increasing boundary
layer moisture each night will keep lows well above climo.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Long term will be a tale of 2 confidence levels. Mid-level ridge
will extend north from the Gulf of Mexico while 5h trough digs over
the Southwest Thu into Fri. Have high confidence surface and mid-
level ridging will keep region warm and dry into Fri. Confidence
takes a nose dive for the end of the week and the weekend. Cold
front is pushed across the area Fri or Fri night by 5h trough moving
into the Northeast. Front`s timing and location when it stalls are a
big question mark so for now will carry slight chance pop through
the weekend, especially given EC/GFS ensembles are on the dry side.

- Temperatures above climo Thu/Fri and near climo Sat/Sun.

- No rainfall Thu into Fri, but chances increase with cold
  front Fri or Fri night.

- Sat and Sun could end up dry with deep northwest flow and weak
  subsidence behind 5h trough axis.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours with scattered
skies and northerly winds.

Extended Outlook...VFR. A low pressure system approaches late
week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday Night:
Improving marine conditions during this timeframe as sfc high
pressure builds into the area. N winds pick up a bit late
tonight to ~15 kt, before decreasing into Mon morning before a
typical enhancement near the coast from a sea breeze. Light
southerly flow then for Mon night. As for seas, 3-5 footers late
this aftn drop to 2-3 ft for Mon/Mon night allowing for benign
marine conditions.

Tuesday through Friday:
Surface high off the coast Tue through Fri will maintain
southwest flow. A cold front will approach from the west-
northwest Fri, but timing of the front`s passage remains in
question. Light southwest flow on Tue will increase Wed through
Fri as gradient becomes more defined. Speeds around 10 kt Tue
increase to 10 to 15 kt Wed and 15 to 20 Thu and Fri. Seas will
respond to increasing winds, building from around 2 ft Tue and
Wed to 3 ft Thu and 3 to 5 ft Thu night and Fri.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MCK
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MCK
MARINE...MAS