Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 231126 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 726 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will move across the area this afternoon and evening bringing showers and thunderstorms some of which may be strong to severe. The front will also bring much cooler temperatures which will develop Wednesday and persist through much of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 400 AM Tuesday...A strong cold front will approach the area today and move across the area this evening. Much of the area will likely be dry through midday with the best chance in the very near term to see activity along the immediate coast and just offshore as prefrontal convergence sets up. Still on track for a fairly linear area of moderate to heavy showers and tstms to move SE across the area along and behind main frontal boundary from roughly 20z Tue-03Z Wed. SPC has the area in a Slight Risk of severe given sufficient instability, shear and forcing...with main threat being damaging wind gusts. Given progressive nature of system do not anticipate widespread flooding although some nuisance flooding not out of question. Main change for tonight and tomorrow was to trim back pops a bit especially inland areas with bulk of the guidance fairly dry after 6Z this evening outside of maybe some lingering activity near the coast. Still expecting considerably cooler weather tomorrow (low to mid 80s) too with anomalous N/NE winds around building high pressure, along with lower heights aloft. Regarding TD 3...significant impacts still not expected as the system is expected to get absorbed into the aforementioned front. Entrained moisture may enhance precip totals a bit next 24hrs and the system will likely enhance Sly winds aimed at the area to our south...which will keep rip current risk elevated into Wed. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM Tuesday...Kinda of an uncertain forecast for the short term period mainly via pops as guidance continues to waiver if and where any post frontal activity may be. The latest cycle shows more of a dry scenario and have adjusted pops in this (downward) direction. The bigger and more certain story will be the cooler temperatures with daytime highs in the middle 80s or so Thursday and overnight lows mainly in the 60s sans extreme coastal areas. The moisture in the form or clouds and or showers will certainly have something to say about this as well. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 400 AM Tuesday...The mid level trough that will have been responsible for the cool temperatures will be on the way out leaving a weak mid level and surface pattern for that matter. We are maintaining slight chance pops along mostly coastal and southern areas where the best moisture will reside. Some guidance has a glancing wave moving off the coast as well so that may complicate things. Temperatures and dewpoints will be on a somewhat deliberate increase. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 12Z...A few areas of showers are possible this morning along the coast as an area of pre-frontal convergence interacts with the sea breeze. This could be the focus for isolated showers and thunderstorms during the early afternoon. This evening, expect a cold front to approach from the west bringing with it widespread thunderstorms with the possibility of damaging winds. Convection should maintain a linear structure increasing our confidence in timing a bit. Knowing the exact impacts will be difficult until the line develops, but it is safe to say that every terminal will likely see a temporary category or two reduction due to heavy rainfall during the frontal passage. As the front moves east, it will stall along the coast. Along the stalled front, expect showers to interact with the marine BL and maintain their presence overnight. Moderate confidence in stratus on Wednesday morning in the wake of the cold front. The weather pattern then becomes more unsettled as TD3 begins to interact with the stalled boundary leading to an enhanced chance of rainfall and MVFR/IFR as a result. Limited effects from TD3 expected (mainly rain and gusty winds). Extended Outlook...Lingering MVFR to IFR Wed as TD3 interacts with a stalled frontal boundary. Becoming VFR Wed Eve into Thu as high pressure rebuilds from north. && .MARINE... As of 400 AM Tuesday... Have issued Small Craft Advisory late this afternoon and this evening for a period of gusty SW winds and seas right around 6ft in places. Short period nature of the seas will also enhance the risk a bit so leaned towards side of caution in issuing headline even though by definition winds/seas will be marginal advisory level. A few showers and thunderstorms expected to impact the waters this morning with prefrontal convergence, but still expecting a more defined line to move offshore from 01-06Z Wed. Some question on how it will hold together this timeframe, but still some potential for gusty winds and frequent lightning along and just behind main front. Significant marine impacts from TD 3 are not expected although Sly swell may linger a bit into Wed as the depression enhances fetch to our south. Northeast winds will be in place most of the period as surface high pressure resides in the Appalachians. Wind speeds are stable in a 10-15 knot range. The flow becomes onshore late in the period probably in the latter part of the weekend. As usual there could be an embedded surge or two that may briefly increase wind speeds. Significant seas are stable as well with a range of generally 2-3 feet. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054-056. NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108. High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NCZ110. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...MCW SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...21 MARINE...ILM

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