Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 252239 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 638 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A series of low pressure systems, will bring isolated showers this afternoon, and then a better chance of rain with isolated storms Thursday night. A drying trend is expected later in the weekend through the first part of next week, with below normal temperatures, as a Canadian High drops into the mid-Atlantic region. A warming trend is expected by the middle of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 325 PM Wednesday...Upper low rotating slowly across the Mid- Atlantic is producing steep lapse rates which are working together with highs in the 70s to produce instability and cu/showers. As is typically the case beneath these upper low, Cu has been extensive beneath the cold pool aloft, and showers/storms have developed. However, despite SBCape of 500-1000 J/kg, storms have been displaced north of the local area and even showers have struggled locally thanks to very dry air above 700mb and some weak subsidence aloft as well. Still carrying SCHC for NC zones through this evening, but any activity will be light and diurnally forced, so a quiet night is expected. As the upper low pulls away, it will drive a weak trough across the area, causing winds to shift to the NW ahead of a ridge of surface high pressure. At the same time, a secondary shortwave will be digging into the Arklatex region, and 850-500mb moisture begins to increase ahead of this feature. This will keep some mid- level cloudiness around through the night, so despite light winds, mins will stay elevated tonight falling into the upper 50s. On Thursday, the aforementioned upper low approaches which causes increasing diffluence, better column moisture, and an increasing chance for showers through the day. Guidance is slow with the surface reflection so expect only minimal shower chances through Thursday, but have shown low-chc near i-95 by the end of the period. Another seasonable day is forecast despite the clouds however, and highs will climb into the mid 70s, near 70 at the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 325 PM Wednesday...Closed 500 mb low and associated surface low centered over southeast TN and northern GA Thursday evening will open up and lift across the Mid-Atlantic states through Friday. A warm front is expected to be just north of the forecast area at 00Z Friday, with the cold front poised to enter the western zones around midnight. Marginal instability in the warm sector will lead to potential for isolated thunderstorms along with the scattered to numerous showers ahead of the frontal boundary. By 12Z Friday, most of the activity will be northeast of the area, however additional light showers may develop later Friday in lingering moisture below 700 mb, ahead of an approaching 700 mb trough. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 325 PM Wednesday...The next shortwave is progged to primarily pass south of the Carolinas during Saturday morning while the main upper low translates across the eastern Great Lakes Region. Thus not much in the way of lift for our part of the Carolinas and a rather dry column through the extended supports very little in the way of POPs. A dry frontal passage Saturday night will be followed by cool high pressure at the surface through the remainder of the weekend. Although temperatures will be cooler than normal Sunday and Monday the weather will be quite tolerable with highs generally in the lower 70s with clear skies. A warm-up is expected by mid-week as the high moves off the coast with as return flow develops. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 00Z...Clouds appear to be dissipating at this time, as these waning clouds are the result of an upper low, cold air aloft, which kicks off cumulus/stratocumulus in the afternoon. Upper low will have less influence tomorrow, but still a VFR ceiling is possible. Winds becoming light after 01Z, with a southeast gradient/resultant in the afternoon on Thursday. Extended outlook...Tempo MVFR Thu night through Sat. Otherwise VFR.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 325 PM Wednesday...Small Craft Advisory for NC waters remains in place through 8pm for residual 6 ft seas even as winds have fallen well below criteria. Winds will continue to ease and shift to the W/NW this evening as a trough moves overhead. This will push the remaining 6 ft seas out of the 20nm boundary, and the SCA should expire on time, if not be cancelled a bit early. Winds will become W/NW around 5 kts overnight, and then veer slowly to the NE and then E and finally the S on Thursday at around 10 kts in response to a retreating surface high and approaching weak low. These winds will keep seas at low amplitude, 2-4 ft. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 325 PM Wednesday...Surface low pressure will move up the Appalachians Friday, resulting in southerly flow across the waters during the day. The magnitude of the gradient will remain modest, with winds remaining 15 kts or less. Winds will veer to the southwest during the evening with the approach of a cold front, which will move off the coast after midnight Thursday night. Not much of a wind shift will occur behind the front, although it will be accompanied by scattered to numerous showers, and isolated thunderstorms. Winds will become more westerly by late Friday night as a weak surface trough approaches the coast from the west. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 325 PM Wednesday...A front will shift off the coast Saturday night followed by high pressure building in from the northwest through Sunday night. The high will build over the waters during Monday. Southwest winds ahead of the front Saturday will veer to a westerly direction Saturday evening, then turn northerly in the wake of the front by Sunday morning. Variable flow is expected Monday as the high builds overhead. Seas of 3 to 4 ft are possible during Sunday, otherwise they will subside to around 2 ft Monday with a weak pressure gradient overhead. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250- 252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SRP NEAR TERM...JDW SHORT TERM...CRM LONG TERM...SRP AVIATION...43 MARINE...

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