Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 232319 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 719 PM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in across the area through early Saturday. A quick moving system will cross the area late Saturday into Sunday. Strong High pressure will build in from the northeast for much of next week before a warming trend finally begins through mid week as high pressure shifts off the coast. A cold front should move through the Carolinas next Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 530 PM Friday...Latest high-res and hourly blended guidance indicates clouds may take until 3-6 AM Saturday morning to thicken appreciably across Southeastern North Carolina. This delay in cloud cover may allow for temperatures to fall a bit farther, and I`ve issued a freeze warning for inland Pender County, matching the freeze warning issued by the MHX office for Onslow County. Dewpoints should recover overnight into the upper 20s to around 30, which would boost relative humidity high enough for some patchy frost which has also been added to the forecast across a slightly wider area. Otherwise, no changes have been made to the overnight forecast. Discussion from 300 PM follows... Center of surface high slips southwest of the area this afternoon, shifting off the FL coast overnight. Although the 5h trough is off the coast and lifting away from the area, the mid- level pattern remains amplified. Shortwave and associated surface low starts dropping in from the northwest tonight, leading to a slow but steady increase in moisture and clouds aloft. Increasing and thickening clouds overnight will be key in determining how low overnight temperatures get. Although conditions will be less than ideal for radiational cooling, even without considering cloud cover, winds will be light and sheltered locations are likely to once again experience periods of calm winds. Biggest concern remains northern/colder portions of of Bladen and Pender counties. Although a freeze warning is not being considered portions of these counties could certainly flirt with 30 (and possibly lower) if cloud cover is slow to develop/thicken. Did drop low temp forecast for these areas a couple degrees. Frost is not out of the question for these locations as well, but will not be widespread enough for inclusion within the forecast. Forecast soundings show moisture continuing to increase Sat with the layer above 6k ft or so becoming saturated to almost 300 mb by midday. Despite the increasing moisture there is an overall lack of forcing for much of the day. Isentropic lift starts increasing during the afternoon hours, as a warm front lifts north. Boundary layer moisture gradually increases Sat afternoon with light to moderate rain eventually developing late in the period. Expect almost full cloud cover Sat with bases slowly lowering through the morning and afternoon. Combination of clouds and low level northerly flow will keep highs well below climo with mid 50s expected across the area. Rainfall will initially be light with the best lift over inland NC counties. Might see a tenth here while remainder of NC ends up with a little less. Farther south, in SC, little more than a few hundredths is expected through the end of the period as the limited lift will be displaced to the north. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM FRIDAY...Mid level low pressure will glide down the upper Mississippi Valley and basically phase with deep low pressure across the northeast through the period. All the while sharp ridging will setup over the Ohio Valley which will be the beginnings of an omega block. At the surface a warm front and overrunning precipitation will accompany the system Saturday night before a wedge cold front moves across early Sunday. Only minor tweaks to inherited pops with categorical values across the northern counties and chance pops to the south. With a colder airmass moving in Sunday plus clouds and light rain highs will be stuck in the lower 50s and even those numbers may be optimistic. Overnight lows Monday will perhaps be tempered by a somewhat mixed boundary layer and some residual clouds with mostly middle 30s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM FRIDAY...A cool start to the week as high pressure extends down from the north with a cool northerly flow in place. Any lingering clouds should get pushed south of the area and any pcp should remain to the south and west through Wed. Mid to upper ridge extending up from the GOM should help to maintain a dry forecast through mid week. The ridge will get nudged south and east by Wed allowing a deeper southerly return flow to develop late Wed into Thurs, bringing warmer and moister flow for Thurs and Fri. Should see an increase in clouds but pcp should hold off until the arrival of the next low pressure system which should sweep a cold front across the area on Fri. Increasing warm and unstable airmass on Friday will give way to showers and isolated thunderstorms. Pcp water values will reach up near 1.6 inches as moisture pools ahead of the cold front on Fri. Drier and cooler high pressure will build in behind it heading into Saturday. Highs will start out in the 50s on Monday and gradually warm, reaching into the 70s by Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 00Z...Light northwest winds this evening and will slowly veer to the northeast by morning as mid level clouds spread in from the west. Fog is not expected due to low dewpoints and cloud cover reducing radiational cooling. Sat areas of low pressure will be moving east along a frontal boundry to the south of the terminals. Northeast winds will become east to southeast. Cigs will lower but remain VFR this TAF period. Light rain will spread east across the terminals late morning/afternoon. VFR vsbys expected although tempo MVFR vsbys could occur at KLBT where rain will be more persistent. Extended outlook...Sat night, MVFR becoming IFR. Sun IFR becoming MVFR. VFR Mon-Wed.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Friday...Offshore flow this afternoon will weaken and become northerly as surface high passes southwest of the waters and then shifts off the FL coast tonight. Gradient remains weak into Sat afternoon before warm front lifting north starts enhancing the gradient. Significant increase in gradient is not likely during the period and winds veering to east- southeast my increase to 10 to 15 kt just as the period ends. Seas 2 to 3 ft this afternoon drop to 2 ft or less overnight and will remain 2 ft or less through the period. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM FRIDAY...For most of the period outside of a couple of hours early on a strong northeast flow will be in place. The ridge of high pressure responsible for this flow to the northeast will remain in place through early Tuesday. Wind speeds will be 20-25 knots with the northeast flow and possibly even a little higher overnight Sunday. These speeds certainly warrant a small craft advisory as do the expected significant seas of 5-8 feet with the stronger winds. Starting off seas will be somewhat lower. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM FRIDAY...High pressure extending down the east coast on Monday will shift east through mid week. This will allow northerly winds to shift around becoming more on shore and variable on Tues and then southerly late Wed into Thurs. Gusty NE winds up to 20 to 25 knots on Mon, will ease on Tues as they begin to slowly veer around to the E. These stronger winds will produce seas up to 6 to 7 ft in the outer waters with SCA conditions on Monday. Seas will subside to 3 to 5 ft through Tues into Wed but will increase late Wed in developing southerly flow. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ105. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...TRA/III SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...MRR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.