Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
526 FXUS62 KILM 060637 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 237 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical Storm Chantal will come ashore into South Carolina this morning. The largest impact on the Carolinas today will be locally heavy rainfall with the potential for isolated flooding, strong rip currents, and dangerous surf. Unsettled weather returns during the middle of the week after somewhat drier conditions Monday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Tropical Storm Chantal is currently east of Georgetown, forecasted to make landfall in northeast SC within the next couple of hours. Chantal will move across NE SC today, weakening to a tropical depression as it then moves across central/eastern NC tonight. The strongest winds will be across coastal areas, particularly south of Cape Fear, through this morning, though tropical storm force gusts will be possible through this evening as the storm moves across CWA. An isolated tornado or two can`t be ruled out on the east and northeast sides of Chantal. Heavy rain remains the primary threat from Chantal. The heavier rain moved onshore in the last hour or so, and will continue to impact the area through this evening. Focus will initially be across coastal areas, particularly near the state line where Flood Watch remains in effect, through this morning. Higher amounts possible, especially within the rainband currently approaching the coast. Rainfall focus shifts inland during the day as the storm moves into Pee Dee region, and will see a decrease in shower coverage across coastal counties this afternoon. Storm total QPF is around 2-4", with locally higher amounts possible - worth noting there will be places that only receive less than an inch within CWA depending on where the heavier rain sets up. Isolated flooding will be possible through this evening. As the storm moves north into central/eastern NC after sunset tonight, dry air on the backside of Chantal will decrease pops across the area with only lingering showers across northern areas. Depending on how quick clouds clear out, and if winds decrease enough, could see fog develop by Monday morning. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The remnants of Chantal move north of the area on Monday, leaving a warm and humid air mass in its wake. Despite favorable moisture profiles, not seeing much of a forcing mechanism to warrant higher than chance PoPs, with SW winds and a partly to mostly cloudy sky. A lot of 00Z guidance has trended drier actually, so PoPs may end up being lowered in future forecast updates. Temps right at normal for early July, with highs in the upr 80s to lwr 90s, and lows Monday night mainly in the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A more typical summertime pattern develops this week compared to the past couple days, with frequent chances for showers and thunderstorms due to transient shortwaves aloft, daily seabreezes, and ample moisture transport out of the S/SW. Expect above climo PoPs in this setup, with likely PoPs each day the second half of the week. Weak steering flow and saturated soils could quickly produce localized flooding, especially in the hardest hit areas. Will see high temps up to the low/mid 90s through the week, with heat indices close to or just shy of Heat Advisory criteria (105 degrees) Tuesday and Wednesday, slightly lower thereafter with the higher rain chances. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Predominantly sub-VFR conditions expected for most of today, primarily due to IFR/MVFR ceilings with intermittent low vsbys from heavy rain, as Tropical Storm Chantal makes landfall in northeast SC shortly before slowly moving north over land during the day. Cloud heights may bounce between IFR and low-end MVFR, and will likely see brief periods of VFR at some terminals during the day that will be hard to time. Winds will be strongest across coastal NE SC (MYR/CRE) through this morning, with easterly gusts of 40-45 kts possible. Winds will be gusty across rest of CWA as well during the day, with wind directions veering with tropical storm passage. Chance of thunder at coastal terminals through morning, and again across most of the area this afternoon. Skies are forecasted to become scattered/VFR, late this afternoon into this evening, though may remain broken across inland SE NC (LBT) through end of TAF period. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Tropical Storm Chantal is currently east of Georgetown and is expected to make landfall in northeast SC within the next one to two hours. The storm will move inland across NE SC today, moving across central/eastern NC tonight. Tropical storm conditions expected across majority of our coastal waters through midday today before slowly improving but remaining gusty. By tonight, winds over the waters are forecasted to be 15-20 kts out of the southwest. Recent buoy obs show 7-11 ft seas due to Chantal swells - these will slowly improve through morning after Chantal makes landfall. Seas 6-8 ft midday today are forecasted to lower to 4-5 ft by sunset, with a weak 1 ft 15 sec swell joining Chantal seas tonight. Monday through Thursday...Marine headlines are expected to be over by Monday. Fairly steady marine conditions each day this period, with Bermuda high pressure offshore and an inland thermal trough. Winds up to 15-20 kt each aftn/evening out of the SSW, with 2-4 ft seas. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Other - Rip Currents: Lingering large swell from Tropical Storm Chantal will lead to high surf heights and a high rip current risk today, with the high rip risk potentially continuing into Monday as well. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ106-108-110. Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ099-109-110. High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ106-108-110. High Surf Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110. SC...Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ054>056-058. Flood Watch through this evening for SCZ054-058-059. High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for SCZ054-056. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...VAO SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...VAO MARINE...MAS/VAO TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...