-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
814
FXUS62 KILM 071716
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
116 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The area will remain between an inland trough and Atlantic high
pressure into Thursday with unseasonably warm and humid
conditions expected. Mostly limited showers and storms expected
through Wednesday until a cold front moves through late in the
work week bringing a better chance of rain and even some
stronger storms. High pressure will then follow bringing drier
and cooler conditions into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
No significant changes with the latest update. Temps trying to
play catch up from all the morning clouds/rain. Still
anticipating isolated to widely scattered showers and storms
later this afternoon into early evening as instability peaks
and another shortwave approaches, mainly along mesoscale
boundaries from the sea breeze, differential heating and
convective outflows.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Ongoing scattered showers with isolated tstorms will be
traversing roughly the northern 1/2 of the ILM CWA this morning.
This in response to the mid-level s/w trof pushing across. Will
includes POPs in the low to mid chance categories specifically
for this pcpn. Otherwise, the s/w trof lifts E to NE of the FA
by midday taking the convection threat with it. Meanwhile, with
highs in the mid to upper 80s today, lower 80s at the beaches,
expect a sea breeze to develop and push not too far inland as
flow aloft will become W to NW. Have indicated a low chance for
convection along this sea breeze. Upper ridging to dominate
later today thru tonight with associated subsidence keeping
convection at bay tonight. Sfc pressure gradient should
tighten-some this aftn and remain thru tonight, keeping winds
active across the FA which should be enough to keep fog
potential to a minimum tonight. Lows tonight to remain closer
to summer-like with upper 60s to lower 70s commonplace.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The heat wave peaks on Wednesday with all places away from the
immediate coast topping 90. The mid level ridge axis will be
just offshore but it will still act to suppress all but
isolated convection. There will be quite a bit of instability
but with little to no forcing and fairly high LFC`s (approaching
5kft) once again convective coverage should be minimal. The
pattern starts to change on Thursday as a trough digs into the
Great Lakes pushing a cold front in our direction. This will
lead to a mainly late day increase in shower and storm coverage
as well as possibly their intensity.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
One last day of showers and storms on Friday before front moves
through and dry air arrives. Guidance is trending  a bit stronger
with the mid level wave driving the front possibly offering a
severe weather threat. The pattern shift is complete by
Saturday with the main upper trough in the East, allowing much
cooler and drier air to spill into the area. Expect a weekend
with seasonable highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the
mid 50s...much cooler than the mid week period but actually
quite close to normal. A secondary cool front may push through
on Monday. Any guidance showing precip with its arrival looks
highly suspect.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Moderate to high confidence for the 18Z TAFs across SE NC and NE
SC. Mainly isolated showers/storms expected this aftn,
especially near the coast driven by the sea breeze. However, not
enough to warrant mention in the TAFs. Otherwise, mostly dry
through the rest of the period with gusty S/SW flow at times,
especially during the aftn/eve near the coast due to the sea
breeze.

Extended Outlook...Looking at VFR dominating Wed into early Thu
with isolated convection. Threat of more widespread strong
convection and periodic flight restrictions later Thu into early
Fri ahead of a CFP. Clearing later Fri with VFR dominating thru
Sat with high pressure prevailing.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Sfc high centered offshore from the SE States
Coast, will get slide slightly further E and S this period. At
the same time, sfc trof across the central Carolinas becomes
better established while frontal systems remain across the Mid-
Atlantic States. This will result in a dynamic sfc pressure
pattern conducive of SW to WSW wind directions. A tightening sfc
pg will also be active resulting in 10-15 kt speeds increasing
to around 15 kt today, with a 15 to 20 kt range to occur
tonight. Seas generally in a 2 to 4 ft range with a few 5
footers. SSE-SSW wind waves at 5 second periods to dominate with
an underlying small 10+ second period Easterly swell.

Wednesday through Saturday Night...Southwesterly flow typical
of the warm season in place early in the period as high pressure
sits off the coast. The persistence of the fetch will add swell
energy to the wind waves and by Thursday we may attain SCA
criteria. Cold front moves through later Friday leading to
veering winds that will also abate in speed. The swell will
persist but also lessen. Wind gets all the way around to the
north on Saturday before backing kicks in as another weak
boundary approaches from the NW.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DCH
UPDATE...RJB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...DCH/MBB