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000
FXUS62 KILM 140203
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1003 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the area this weekend and will
persist through mid next week bringing mostly dry and unseasonably
warm conditions. A few disturbances and a cold front will then
bring a better chance for some rain later in the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
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Lowered lows for tonight due to calm conditions ongoing.
Otherwise no major changes made to the forecast at this time.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Quiet weather expected through the period. The gusty winds within
the cyclonic flow around the large system in the NE will relax this
evening as mixing settles and the storm continues to pull away.  The
light winds overnight will allow temperatures to radiate down to a
few degrees below climatology. Heading into Sunday high pressure to
our west sinks southward. The still light winds will acquire a
southerly component beneath some deeper layer WAA. This will push
locations away from the water to near 80 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Highlights:
*Much above normal temps

Confidence: High

Details: High pressure offshore and an inland trough will prevail
with some periodic weak disturbances aloft. A weak surface cold
front could even move into at least SE NC from the north Monday
night. Looks too dry to add any rain chances but can`t completely
rule out a few light showers. Temps should stay above normal, with
mid to possibly even upper 80s inland Monday, possibly even hitting
90 in a few spots for the first time this year!

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights:
*Much above normal temps through Friday

Confidence: Moderate to High

Details: High pressure should generally prevail through Wednesday
keeping it mainly dry and unseasonably warm, albeit a bit more
cloudy due to upper shortwave energy moving through. However, a few
features/disturbances could impact the area starting Wednesday night
bringing a better chance for some rain, although amounts through the
end of the week still shouldn`t be too heavy overall. Temperatures
should get into the 80s inland each afternoon through Friday,
possibly even reaching 90 degrees in some spots (especially Tue and
Thu). A decent cool down into the 70s is likely Saturday behind a
cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR through 00Z TAF period. Some occasional gusts can`t be ruled
out at the start of the period but decided to leave them out as
winds should considerable calm down after sunset. SSW winds pick
up again tomorrow aftn to 10-13 kts with gusts 20-25 kts. A sea
breeze will move through the coastal terminals around 15-16Z.

Extended Outlook...VFR is expected through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday...Westerly winds to continue abating as the
large low well to the northeast becomes increasingly distant and
high pressure is allowed to build. The center of this
anticyclone will be south of the region by Sunday turning winds
to the south. Seas are almost exclusively wind waves and so will
be abating the whole time.

Sunday night through Thursday...Should see elevated winds/seas much
of the period as the pressure gradient remains slightly enhanced
between offshore high pressure and inland low pressure. However, do
not anticipate the need for any Small Craft Advisories.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...LEW
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...RJB/MBB