Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 161449 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1049 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will settle south of the area and then move offshore Wednesday. It will be dry this week with cool temperatures today and Tuesday and then temperatures warming to above normal mid week. A cold front will move across the area Thursday night, bringing temperatures back to about normal late in the week and into the weekend. A frontal system will approach from the west Sunday bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1000 AM Monday...One shortwave trough is exiting offshore late this morning, taking the bulk of the clouds with it. However, satellite already shows stratocumulus filling in as sunshine gets to work on a chilly airmass and this trend will continue into the afternoon. CAA will keep 850 temps near 2c today. Some sunshine along with westerly downslope flow will help to offset the CAA a bit to produce temps in the mid 60s most places. Afternoon relative humidity will be as low as 25 to 30 percent and winds will be gusting to 25 to 30 mph. Wet ground from widespread significant rain Sun and Sun night should prevent any fire weather concerns today. The column cools and dries out further tonight as another trough pivots offshore, leaving a deep NW flow of dry and cool air. A secondary push of CAA tonight will bring 850 temps down to -3 to -4C. Looks like winds will be slow to diminish tonight, but do look like they will drop off to 2 to 4 mph toward morning. We are not expecting any freezing temps, mainly upper 30s to around 40. However, those traditionally cold spots will likely drop to the mid 30s for up to 3 or 4 hours around daybreak. Rather warm soil temps and dry low-levels in conjunction with the brevity of near critical temps should prevent the formation of frost. However, it can not be completely ruled out on a very isolated basis, again where temps drop to the mid 30s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Monday...Mid-level trough across New England will retreat as ridging begins to blossom across the Southeast downstream of another upper low which will dive into the Great Lakes Thursday. While this secondary feature will push a cold front towards the area Wednesday night, the mid-week period will feature dry conditions with warming temperatures as surface high pressure expands across FL and then shifts eastward. While there may be periods of high level cirrus as moisture streams overhead from the Pacific in fast flow, the rest of the column is forecast to be quite dry as PWATs fall to around 0.5 inches. This dry column combined with 850mb temps climbing to +12 to +15C by Wednesday supports temps well above climo the latter half of the period. Expect highs to soar into the 80s away from the coast and sea breeze Wednesday, after much cooler readings Tuesday around 70. The nocturnal mins will feature a similar pattern, with near normal lows in the upper 40s Tuesday night, dropping only to around 60 Wednesday night ahead of the next cold front. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Fair weather is expected through Saturday, despite the passage of a cold front on Thursday as moisture is forecast to be limited with the front. Cool high pressure will then control area weather into Sunday when another frontal system approaching from the west will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Max temperatures Thu will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s with upper 60s to lower 70s expected Fri through Sun. Mins in the upper 50s to lower 60s Wed night will cool to the upper 40s to lower 50s for the remainder of the long term period. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 12Z...The front is now well offshore with high pressure pouring into the state. Good cold air advection will keep winds quite gusty today, particularly around mid morning. A VFR strato cu ceiling is expected to form due to cold air aloft. The ceiling will dissipate later today with diminishing winds tonight. Extended outlook...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1000 AM Monday...The Gale Warning has been downgraded to a Small Craft Advisory. W to SW winds will be strongest through early afternoon, 25 to 30 kt before diminishing to 20 to 25 kt. A secondary surge of dry and chilly air will keep the environment well mixed tonight. Winds will veer to NW during the night and remain in the 20 to 25 kt range before diminishing to 15 to 20 kt toward morning. Seas will also be highest through early afternoon, up to 5 to 9 ft, subsiding to 4 to 7 ft this eve and to 3 to 5 ft by tue morning. We will issue a MWS for abnormally low water levels during the afternoon low tide. Water levels will drop as low as minus 1 to minus 1.5 ft MLLW before retracing higher after 3-4 pm. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Monday...High pressure will expand across the FL Gulf Coast before elongating E-W and shifting into the Atlantic Ocean through mid-week. With the surface feature remaining well south of the waters, the gradient will stay pinched so wind speeds will be elevated at 15-20 kt from the west Tuesday, increasing to 20-25 kt and backing to the SW late Wednesday and Wednesday night. This increase is due to the sharpening of the gradient in response to an approaching cold front late in the period, and will push seas up to 4-6 ft, likely necessitating an SCA. Before that occurs, seas are forecast to be 2-4 ft Tue/Wed as the offshore wind component limits wave amplitude. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM Sunday...High pressure will give way to a quick moving front that will cross the waters late on Thursday. Southwest winds 15 to 20 KT Thu will become W to NW after the frontal passage Thu night before shifting to the N and decreasing to 10 to 15 KT on Friday. There is a chance winds could reach 25 KT Wed night and Thu and a Small Craft Advisory may be required Wednesday night into Thursday. Seas 3 to 5 FT Thu will subside to 2 to 3 FT by late Fri.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254- 256.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...RJD/RGZ SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...RAN AVIATION...DL

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