Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 241703
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
103 PM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry high pressure will continue to build in from the
north through today with below normal temperatures expected.
The lingering front offshore will move inland on Friday with
increased chances of showers or thunderstorms through Saturday.
Typical summertime pattern is in store for early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Previous forecast remains on track. Hazardous surf conditions
continue at east-facing beaches. Coastal Flood Advisory issued
for NE SC and SE NC beaches, and Downtown Wilmington, for minor
flooding with this evening`s high tide.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Latest sfc analysis shows 1028 mb high pressure centered over the
Gulf of ME with a stalled frontal boundary positioned well off the
Carolina coast. The local area remains under the influence of the
high ridging in from the N today, and with dry air throughout the
entire column expect no rain with below normal temps...highs in the
low/mid 80s.

Front offshore starts to nudge towards the coast tonight, and with
an increase in moist low-level onshore flow expect scattered showers
over coastal areas overnight. Mainly light QPF expected with just a
slight chance of thunder as instability is lacking. Better chance of
rain arrives daytime Fri as the front moves over land and mid levels
finally moisten. PoPs 50-60% across the area, with rain chances
quite similar between the morning and aftn. Again, mainly light rain
with severe wx not anticipated. Temps higher than today but still a
bit below normal...highs near 85.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure from the sfc up through the mid to upper levels
shifts farther off the Northeast coast while extending back
over the Carolinas Fri night into the weekend. This will produce
a fairly deep E-SE onshore flow. Weak troughing along the coast
into early Sat should help to fuel some shwrs early in the day,
with best moisture and convergence pushing inland by Sat aftn.
Therefore expect chc of pcp to diminish along the coast through
the day, but remain inland. By late Sat into early Sun, drier
air will advect in from the east, perhaps some subsidence ahead
of tropical wave farther out in the Atlantic. This should help
limit clouds and shwrs for Sunday. A general summertime pattern
will exist with temps and dewpoints recovering leaving warmer
and more humid conditions. Overall, temps will be back near
normal with overnight lows near 70 and daytime highs in the mid
80s on Sat.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sfc high pressure will continue to shift farther off shore with
Bermuda high taking control leaving a deep E-SE flow from Sun
through midweek. In the mid to upper levels the ridge will
strengthen with the center just north over the Delmarva
Peninsula. Looking to the east this time of year, looks like
some drier air and subsidence will advect over the area through
Sunday into Mon ahead of a wave. Therefore expect limited clouds
and shwrs. By Mon night into Tues, moisture begins to stream
back in with increasing chc of shwrs. Looks like a wave like
feature will extend up the Southeast coast from Florida Gulf
region. This, combined with convergence along sea breeze
boundary should help fuel some convection Tues aftn. Flow
becomes more southerly into Wed. Overall, expect mainly diurnal
convective activity Tues through midweek in a more typical
warm and humid summertime airmass. Temps will run right around
normal with overnight lows in the low 70s most places and
daytime highs between 85 and 90 most places.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Satellite shows the stalled frontal boundary beginning to make
a northward push as a warm front which will continue this
afternoon and overnight. NE winds maintain 10-15 knots this
afternoon with a few isolated gusts up to 20 knots along the
immediate coast. Mid- level cloud deck will mark the arrival of
the front this evening becoming most evident along the coast and
in portions of SE NC. Could see a few isolated showers, but
coverage should be isolated enough to exclude from this TAF
cycle. Winds veer with the approaching front, becoming ENE or E
by early evening. Good chance of low-level stratus tomorrow
morning as surface dew points creep-up again into the upper 60s
or lower 70s in addition to the 10 knot BL winds. Expect
widespread IFR and MVFR, breaking through mid-morning. Humid
tomorrow with SCT/BKN cumulus developing into periodic MVFR
conditions.

Extended Outlook...Generally VFR during the daylight hours with
early morning MVFR/IFR chances. Showers and thunderstorms may
return Friday through Sunday with periodic (but brief)
restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday...The pressure gradient and resulting NE flow
weakens today as the influence of high pressure from the N
diminishes through the day. Tonight an offshore frontal boundary
slides towards the coast, with NE winds shifting to the E and
diminishing from 15-20 kt to 10-15 kt. SE winds 10-15 kt then
for Fri as the front slides onshore. As for wave heights, 3-5 ft
seas this morning decrease to 2-4 ft late today through Fri. As
a result of the high swell energy from distant storms, rough
waves are likely for area beaches, especially the east facing
ones.

Friday night through Monday...
High pressure will shift farther off the Northeast coast sagging
slowly south with a summertime Bermuda High pattern setting up
by early next week. This will maintain an E-SE flow through most
of the weekend into early next week. This persistent onshore
push will keep seas in the 3 to 4 ft range dominated by this SE
swell around 7 seconds. A weak long period SE swell will mix in
over the weekend.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for
     SCZ054-056.
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ106-108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to midnight EDT
     tonight for NCZ107.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...VAO
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...21
MARINE...MAS/RGZ


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