000
FXUS62 KILM 011711
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
110 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail through mid week keeping it dry with
seasonable temperatures. Rain chances may increase just a bit
late week as a cold front approaches.

&&

UPDATE/...
No changes to the forecast at this time.

&&


.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Area remains under the influence of the high pressure wedge with
quiet and dry weather with abundant dry air above 850mb (which will
sound like a broken record for most of this week). Outside of
possible low clouds over Cape Fear region this morning and some
diurnal cumulus clouds this afternoon, mostly sunny skies in store
for today. High temps around 80F with a nice northerly breeze.
Tonight will see lows in the upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Confidence: High
Main concerns: None

No major changes from the previous forecast. Surface high pressure
is expected to remain centered to the north with ridging southward
into the Carolinas which will maintain dry weather over SE NC and
NE SC. Temperatures should be near to below normal this period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Confidence: Moderate to High
Main concerns: None

No major changes from the previous forecast. Surface high pressure
centered to the north should maintain mostly dry conditions through
mid week, especially inland, with a bit more troughing offshore.
Although a shower or two could scrape the coastal areas mid week
we don`t expect any significant rain chances/amounts. However,
later in the week as high pressure weakens and deeper
troughing/moisture increase ahead of a cold front there could
be a few more showers and possible storms around but still not
looking too wet for now. Temperatures should start the period near
normal before getting back above normal later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR with clear skies and light NE winds brought to us by large high
pressure over NE/MidAtlantic regions.

Extended Aviation Outlook:  Confidence is high in mostly VFR
conditions prevailing Mon through Thu, although can`t rule out
mainly late night/early morning low clouds and/or fog mid week as
low-level moisture increases.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Gradient between high pressure wedge inland and
offshore low pressure system to the northeast will maintain breezy
NNE winds across the coastal waters through tonight. Gusts around 20
kts early this morning and again tonight. Seas will generally remain
in the 3-5 ft range during the near term period, combination of 3 ft
NNE wind wave and 2 ft 11 sec SE swell. There is also a 8-9 sec ENE
swell that looks to arrive later today, around 3-4 ft, generated by
the low moving away from the Mid-Atlantic.

Monday through Thursday...Forecast confidence is fairly high this
period as high pressure remains centered to the north which will
maintain enhanced north/northeast winds. Significant wave heights
will be elevated as well and the combination of winds and seas could
produce a marginal Small Craft Advisory.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The higher than normal astronomical tides due to the full moon
and lunar perigee combined with onshore (east/southeast) swells
and enhanced north/northeast winds (which enhance Ekman
transport toward the coast) will lead to minor tidal flooding
across coastal southeast North Carolina and northeast South
Carolina as well as along the lower Cape Fear River from around
downtown Wilmington south toward the coast. Saltwater inundation
is most likely during the morning high tides at the coast but
should continue during the morning and evening high tides in
tidal portions of the Cape Fear River.

The prolonged high tides and elevated surf could lead to some
beach erosion as well.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 2 PM ED this
afternoon for NCZ107.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...RJB/VAO