Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 072026
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
326 PM EST Sun Mar 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure will dominate the weather through the week
along with plenty of sunshine. Unseasonably cool temperatures
to start the week will reach near normal by Tuesday and
continue to warm to above normal through the mid to late week
period. A cold front should bring an end to our sunny and warm
weather late next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
5H s/w trof moving off the Carolina Coasts at the moment. This will
accelerate the movement of low pressure offshore from the GA/SC
Coasts to the well offshore Atl Waters off the NE States by Mon
daybreak. With NW flow aloft, Canadian high pressure will drop to
the SE, with it`s 1035mb center nearly overhead come sunset Mon and
temporarily hold that position during Mon night. The atm column will
remain quite dry thru this period given various model progged RH
time height series. This the result of  the dry airmass itself
combined with a NW downslope flow aloft that further scours out any
moisture that makes it across the Appalachian mountains before
reaching the FA. The lowest various model thickness schemes (1000-
500, 1000-850) bottom out this evening and into the overnight. Have
indicated some decoupling of winds across portions of the FA tonight
which will further enable Min temps to drop. Have indicated
widespread 20s to lower 30s at the beaches. Mon night will be more
of an excellent radiational cooling night, with winds decoupling
early. Have undercut MOS mins for Mon night by several degrees. Mon
highs should see the 60 degree mark broken across the majority of
the FA, except NE portions of the FA, but all still below the normal
mid 60s highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure nearly overhead Tues will begin to shift farther
offshore through midweek as ridge aloft builds up the Southeast
coast. A minor perturbation in the mid levels will pass across
the area overnight Tues into early Wed and may produce some
passing mid clouds, but overall expect a dry period with plenty
of sunshine. Variable winds will become more southerly by late
Wed into Wed night but will remain on the light side. The dry
air mass with light winds will allow for large diurnal swings.
Should see decent radiational cooling overnight, but passing sfc
dewpoints will rise through midweek keeping overnight lows on
an upward trend. Plenty of sunshine, height rises as ridge
builds aloft, and WAA will produce daytime temps above normal,
into the 70s, except at the beaches. Seabreeze during aftn
should keep temps cooler close to the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Southerly return flow will continue through much of the late
week period with a slow rise in dewpoints and moisture through
the column. Temps will run well above normal as WAA and plenty
of sunshine produce readings well into the 70s, except at the
beaches. As dewpoints rise into the 50s, may see some overnight
fog and some potential for sea fog as winds increase out of the
SW into the weekend.

Some uncertainty arises for the weekend forecast. GFS builds
stronger ridge up the east coast but ECMWF and Canadian weaken
the ridge allowing for a cold front to drop south into the
Carolinas Fri night into Saturday. The GFS keeps this backdoor
front well north of the area leaving the weekend warm and drier,
and brings cold front from the west late Sun into Sun night. For
now, will introduce some potential for clouds and pcp over the
latter half of the weekend. Could end up with more in the way of
clouds and potential for light pcp late Sat into Sun. This could
also affect the temps on Sun, potentially making for a cooler
day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions continue. Clear skies, with exception of a few
passing mid- clouds across Cape Fear region this afternoon.
Breezy northerly winds this afternoon will become calm
overnight, with light north-northwest winds tomorrow.

Extended Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday night...
The modest NNW-NNE surge this aftn will last thru tonight, finally
letting up as the center of high pressure drops to the SE, reaching
the Eastern Carolinas during Mon and hanging out across the waters
Mon night. Overall, winds peak in speed tonight and steadily
diminish during Mon becoming variable in direction Mon aftn and
night. Will identify a dominate direction in lieu of indicating VRBL
in the CWF. Seas will run 2 to 4 ft, with 4 footers occurring this
aftn into this evening, mainly outer waters off Cape Fear and
possibly Romain. This the result of the wind driven waves from the
surge combining with an underlying small easterly swell from the
exiting lows.

Tuesday through Friday...Light and variable winds on Tues will
start to come around as high pressure overhead migrates farther
offshore through mid to late week. Seas less than 3 ft will
start a slow and steady rise with a light onshore to southerly
flow developing. By Thurs eve seas will be between 2 and 4 ft,
with 3 to 4 ft more common by Fri into the weekend. The cool
ocean temps and unseasonably warm temps will create a healthy
sea breeze through much of the mid to late week period with
choppier seas late aftn into early evening. May also see some
patchy sea fog as the week wears on.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...DCH/RGZ


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