Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 281939
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
339 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty southerly winds will develop on Thursday as the remnants
of Zeta move across the southern Appalachians. A cold front
will sweep across the area very early Friday bringing scattered
showers. Cooler and drier weather will arrive on Saturday with
a slight chance of showers returning on Sunday ahead of the next
cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet weather expected tonight before things ramp up after day break
tomorrow. Partly cloudy skies tonight with low temps well above
normal in the upper 60s. Zeta is forecasted to move across the
western Carolinas tomorrow morning as a tropical storm, with
enhanced southerly flow increasing across our area during the day.
Temps approach mid-80s with dewpoints in the low 70s. With strong
winds just above the surface forecasted at 30-40 kts, decent mixing
during the day tomorrow will bring gusty winds across the area.
Strongest gusts expected across NW counties, where soundings and
some hi-res guidance is hinting at 40+ kts making it to the surface
late morning-early afternoon, and therefore a Wind Advisory has been
issued for Darlington, Marlboro, Dillon, Robeson and Bladen
counties.

Scattered precipitation expected tomorrow afternoon into evening
hours. Most of our area, excluding coastal NE SC, is in a marginal
risk for severe weather, with isolated strong convective wind gusts
and a tornado or two is possible. While wind fields will be
impressive, with 0-1 km SRH over 200 m2/s2, instability is going to
be limited due to warm temps aloft. Any storms that do develop will
have to watched. Cold front moves through the area overnight
Thursday into Friday, ushering in cooler and drier air.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Very dry air will work its way in with deep NW flow through Fri.
Pcp water values down near .60 inches will rebound slightly as
mid to upper trough swings through Fri morning. Soundings show
thin layer moisture stuck under strong subsidence inversion
which could produce a cu field Fri morning to early aftn that
will be eroded away by extremely dry air aloft, through the mid
levels of the atmosphere, leaving very cool and dry air mass in
place into the weekend.

Sunshine will fight against CAA on Fri leaving highs just
barely reaching 70, close to normal for this time of year. By
Fri night, temps will drop below 50 most places inland of
beaches and will only rebound into the 60s on Saturday with cool
and dry high pressure extending down from the north. Trick or
treaters will experience fall-like weather with cool northerly
winds diminishing through the day leaving clear skies for Sat
evening. More ideal radiational cooling conditions will allow
temps to drop fairly rapidly through the evening hours, down
into the 50s, and down into the 40s inland by Sun morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure at the surface will track farther off the New
England coast on Sunday as cold front follows behind it. The
winds will become more onshore and then southerly bringing an
increase in moisture and lift as winds aloft increase out of the
SW. Should see potential for some lower clouds and shwrs,
especially along the coast Sun morning. Then potential increases
slightly inland as cold front crosses the area later in the day.
Soundings also show a decent amount of upper level moisture
through the day on Sunday. Overall, expect some clouds and
warming on Sunday, with back to normal temps ahead of cold
front.

Canadian high pressure will build in behind cold front Sun night
into Mon with extremely dry air mass building in. Pcp water
values drop to near a tenth of an inch by Mon morning. And
models showing 850 temps down below 2c. The early Nov sunshine
will fight against the CAA to produce temps only in the 50s,
a relatively chilly day. This will lead to potential for frost
Mon night as winds drop off allowing temps to drop down into the
mid 30s inland for lows. It will be a chilly morning for those
going out to vote. Air mass will begin to modify slowly into mid
week as high pressure migrates across the Southeast. Better
radiational cooling on Tues night will once again produce temps
down near 40 most places.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the evening hours. An MVFR ceiling
is possible after midnight as return flow begins. Thursday, an
increasing southerly gradient throughout the day, with gusts over 20
knots by afternoon. Look for isolated showers at the end of the
forecast period.

Extended Outlook...Possible MVFR/IFR during the early morning
hrs Thu from ground fog and/or low stratus. For Thu thru Fri,
expect Zeta remnants to push across the Carolinas with rain
likely followed by a CFP and mainly dry wx for the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Thursday night: Quiet marine conditions tonight will
deteriorate quickly tomorrow as strong southerly winds develop
across the area with then Tropical Storm Zeta moving across the
western Carolinas. South winds 10-15 kt and seas 2-3 ft tonight will
both increase early tomorrow morning. By the afternoon, S winds of
25 kts with gusts around 30 kts will develop, pushing seas into
Small Craft Advisory criteria. Advisory in effect for coastal waters
beginning 10am Thursday, and seas 5-8 ft expected to dominate from
Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Seas predominantly a
building 8 sec S swell, with weak 1-2 ft SE swell mixed in. Frequent
wind gusts over 34 kts forecasted for Thursday night, and a Gale
Watch has been issued for midnight Thursday night through early
Friday morning.

Friday through Monday: Westerly flow early Fri will veer to NW
and then N as front moves farther off shore through Fri. Winds
and seas will diminish through Fri dropping below SCA thresholds
by early afternoon. Seas will range from 2 to 3 ft in offshore
northerly flow south of Cape Fear, and up to 5 ft in outer
waters north of Cape Fear on Fri. NE surge may push seas back
above minimal SCA thresholds once again on Sat into Sat night.

By Sun, winds diminish and veer as high pressure moves off the
New England coast and cold front approaches from the NW. Very
cool high pressure will build in behind cold front Sun night
into Mon with another northerly surge. Expect winds and seas
reaching SCA thresholds once again Sun night into Mon with
relatively chilly air rushing over the warmer waters, keeping
the marine layer well mixed with gusty winds through Mon night.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday for SCZ017-023-
     024.
NC...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ087-096.
MARINE...Gale Watch late Thursday night for AMZ250-252-254-256.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to midnight EDT
     Thursday night for AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43
MARINE...RGZ/VAO


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