Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 051939
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
339 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid conditions will continue with a greater chance
of thunderstorms into Friday. Slightly warmer temperatures are
expected this weekend and into early next week with a lower
chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Latest sfc analysis shows high pressure centered well offshore, with
a weak trough of low pressure over the central Carolinas. A very
moist profile is evident on cross sections this aftn, leading to iso-
sct convection across the area despite weak forcing. Expect the
coverage to slowly diminish this evening and overnight, with the
chance for shras/tstms returning once again Thu morning, potentially
similar to what happened this morning, with continued high moisture
below 700 mb. Rain chances (PoPs at 50%) continue into the aftn
areas as the sea breeze develops and weak shortwave energy passes
through the SW flow aloft. Severe wx not anticipated, but some
localized flooding in poor drainage areas is possible
especially with any slow-moving storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Mid to upper trough will shift eastward and lift northward on
Friday as shortwave rides across the Great Lakes, through the
Northeast CONUS and offshore by early Saturday. Looks like
better coverage earlier Fri, but storms should end up being more
favorable inland and north by late Fri aftn/eve in southerly
steering flow. Once the shortwave moves offshore and flow
flattens out through the mid to upper levels on Saturday, expect
better coverage closer to the coast in a more westerly steering
flow. Expect development closer to the coast associated with
lingering trough along the coast and sea breeze boundary. Warm
and humid weather will continue with daytime temps near normal
and overnight temps above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Ridge will be sprawled out across the deep south into the
Atlantic with flatter trough over northern CONUS through early
to midweek next week. May see some shortwave energy run down
into our area at times, but overall, expect mainly localized
and typical summertime convection with daily showers and
thunderstorms focused along sea breeze and trough inland. Hot
and humid weather will continue with daytime highs right around
90 and overnight lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Juicy airmass allowing convection to fire just about any time in the
next 24 hours. Outflows, along with the sea breeze boundary are good
spots for convection to form. Tonight convection will wane, but
there will probably be scattered showers through the nighttime hours,
with IFR stratus inland.

Extended Outlook...A trough pattern enters the area and brings
typical summertime conditions for the area midweek, including
the chances for afternoon convection and flight restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
Benign marine conditions expected through Thursday night, outside
of any TSTMs. With high pressure centered well offshore and a
persistent trough of low pressure inland, S/SW flow continues
around 10 kt, with a slight uptick in the aftn/evng as normal.
Significant seas 2-3 ft, mainly characterized by a SE 8-9 second
swell.

Expect a fairly typical summertime pattern with southerly winds
most days from Friday through early next week. Saturday may
have a bit more westerly flow as trough moves offshore. Winds
will lighten through early next week which will help to bring
seas down a bit. Overall, seas will be less than 3 ft with an
insignificant and slightly longer period SE swell mixing in.
May see a slight uptick in seas into midweek next week as
southerly winds pick up slightly.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Thursday for NCZ107.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43
MARINE...MAS/RGZ


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