Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 251843
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
243 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered off the Mid Atlantic coast will provide a
dry weekend with seasonably warm temperatures. A cold front will
reach the area Monday night into Tuesday bringing good chances
for showers and thunderstorms. The front will retreat northward
Wednesday, with scattered thunderstorms possible through late
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure continues to dominate, bringing clear skies and quiet
weather through the remainder of the weekend. Easterly winds become
calm overnight as the deep-mixing boundary layer decouples after
sunset. Dry air near the surface should limit the chance for any fog
overnight. Water bodies may be an exception for light ground fog.
The bulk of the area should radiate well tonight with a similar
forecast to yesterday evening with a degree or two taken off the
overnight low temperature. Lows in the mid to upper 60s and
remaining dry.

Warm again on Sunday, mitigated by dewpoint in the lower 60s.
Slightly cooler along the coast as a sea breeze develops and keeps
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The big 500 mb ridge centered over eastern TX will begin to
break down early next week as significant shortwave energy dives
southeastward across the Great Lakes region. Precipitable water
values will increase a bit more quickly than thought yesterday
and the subsidence inversion could dissipate inland Monday
morning. Monday afternoon`s forecast PoPs have been increased to
30-40 percent along/west of I-95 as scattered thunderstorms
could develop within a region of moist and unstable low and mid
level conditions advecting in from the west and southwest.

A surface cold front, pushed southeastward by high pressure
covering the Plains and Midwest, will move through the eastern
Carolinas Monday evening. The GFS is the fastest with this
feature, but even the slower models show the front stalling offshore
by late Monday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
develop along and behind the front, and forecast PoPs range
from 30 percent along the Grand Strand to 60 percent across
Darlington, Bennettsville, and Lumberton.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
On Tuesday the front should remain stalled just offshore, while
in the upper levels a longwave trough will extend from the
eastern Great Lakes to North Carolina. It`s not possible to
reliably time individual shortwaves at this time range, but the
odds for shower/thunderstorm activity look rather high Tuesday
into Tuesday night given the synoptic pattern and nearly 2.0
inch precipitable water value shown by the models. Forecast PoPs
are as high as 70 percent Tuesday.

The boundary should begin to lift back to the north Wednesday,
but a very humid airmass and lack of any capping inversion aloft
should still allow for plenty of shower and thunderstorm
activity to develop. Low and mid level wind speeds appear they
will remain light enough that the risk of any organized severe
weather is small.

The longwave trough will shift offshore Thursday, allowing upper
level ridges to begin to grow both offshore and west of the
Appalachians. Assuming the models are correct this could leave
enough of a weakness between the ridges to prevent a significant
subsidence inversion from redeveloping. Therefore we`re
maintaining scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and
t-storms in the forecast Thursday through Saturday, with
temperatures rising back toward normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR with a few cumulus clouds developing this afternoon. Winds
peak around 10 knots this afternoon with an easterly sea breeze.
Patchy ground fog is possible at our inland sites overnight, but
not expected at this time.

Extended Outlook...VFR through Monday with possible MVFR
conditions Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday...Easterly winds decrease after sunset with the
weakening sea breeze. High pressure maintains light NE/E winds
overnight and quiet weather. Onshore winds continue tomorrow,
becoming SE during the afternoon and evening. Seas 2-3 feet.

Sunday Night through Thursday...Light onshore winds Sunday night
will veer subtly to the south on Monday ahead of a cold front
approaching the Carolinas from the west. The latest GFS model
bring the front to the coastline Sunday evening while most
other models delay its arrival by another 6 hours. Eventually
the front will arrive accompanied by a shift to northeast winds
and a rapidly increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms.

With the front stalled just offshore Tuesday and Tuesday night,
showers and thunderstorms could be rather widespread. As the
front retreats northward on Wednesday the coverage of storms
should decrease, however the humid airmass south of the front
will likely produce scattered convective activity typical of
summertime weather here in the Carolinas. Seas through the
period should consist largely of a 2-foot 8-second easterly
swell, overlaid with occasional short period wind chop.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...21
MARINE...TRA/21


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