Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 030604
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
104 AM EST Fri Dec 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend
with no rain potential. Isolated showers may develop Monday
ahead of a cold front. Dry and cooler weather is expected on
Tuesday before shower chances increase Wednesday ahead of
another front.

&&

.UPDATE...
No significant changes were needed to the forecast. A light
southwest breeze this evening will die away late tonight as the
surface trough passes offshore. A little cirrus overhead now
should clear out by late this evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Surface trough will continue to push through central and
eastern North and South Carolina this evening with the remainder
of isolated thin cirrus dissipating. Clearing skies overnight
will accompany a light gradient of SW winds around 5 mph. Once
the trough emerges off of the Carolina coast, winds will become
NW just before sunrise. Temperatures overnight should radiate
fairly well with clear skies and dry soils. Mixing of the light
near-surface flow will be the only consideration. Have trended
toward overnight lows in the low to mid 40s, mid to upper 40s
along the coast. Dry and clear on Friday with NW flow aloft.
Temperatures should climb into the mid 70s easily with dry soils
and full sunshine. NW winds in the morning will become
northerly and SE just after sunset as a weak center of high
pressure drifts offshore. Friday afternoon soundings show an
excessive dry layer just above the boundary layer during the
late morning and early afternoon. If temperatures warm into the
low or mid 70s as they are forecast, this dry air should mix
down, causing RH to drop into the upper 20s inland. On Friday
night, southerly flow develops with increasing low-level
moisture. This should keep overnight lows in the upper 40s to
around 50 with potential for patchy fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Warm again on Saturday with highs a couple of degrees cooler
due to patchy mid and upper-level cloud cover. On Saturday
night, high pressure will traverse the Great Lakes from the
northern Plains and settle over New England. This will push the
remnants of a weak cold front through the area. Only a slight
cooldown into Sunday as the cooler air remains well north and
inland. Highs on Sunday in the mid to upper 60s. The brief
cooldown will be replaced by southerly flow increasing on Sunday
night ahead of an approaching cold front. Overnight lows around
50 or in the lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Southerly flow continues on Monday morning with the potential
development of a few isolated showers offshore. The pre-frontal
mid- level energy will interact with the low-level moisture
offshore. Given that the moisture over land will remain low,
showers are unlikely and if any develop, would be confined to
the immediate coastline (mainly NC with even lower chances along
the SC coast). A strong cold front will continue its journey
eastward on Monday, arriving in our area on Monday evening and
overnight. Shower chances remain low due to a combination of the
lifting trough and limited columnar moisture. The surface
convergence and mid-level vorticity may eek out a stray sprinkle
or two as it progresses eastward. Chances for a much needed
"drought-improving rainfall" are nearly zero at this time.
Cooler on Tuesday with high pressure bringing cold advection
throughout the day. This cold air will be shallow with the mid-
level pattern becoming zonal or pre-frontal by Tuesday
afternoon. The progressive pattern continues with high pressure
moving offshore Tuesday night and southerly flow returning head
of the next frontal boundary on Wednesday. Models not in
agreement at this moment on how the approaching cold front will
develop, but SW flow aloft should tap into some additional
moisture and could indicate rain chances during the middle of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR will dominate the 24 Taf period. The sfc trof will slide off
the Carolina Coasts by daybreak with SW winds veering to the NW
along with a diminishing trend as the sfc pg relaxes. Sfc
pressure pattern this aftn and evening becomes noisy but will
identify a dominate wind direction in lieu of going vrbl in
direction. No ceilings expected other than periodic FEW/SCT
thin cirrus.

Extended Outlook...VFR Fri night thru daytime Sat. Possible
MVFR/IFR due to lowered vsby from fog Sat night into early Sun
morning with a stalled frontal boundary in the vcnty. The front
will lift back north daytime Sun with VFR Sun thru Tue even with
a dry CFP slated Mon night to be followed by high pressure Tue.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday Night... Winds decrease this evening as a
surface trough pushes offshore by Friday morning. SW winds 15-20
knots will become westerly and NW early Friday morning, while
steadily decreasing. A few gusts this evening could reach 20-25
knots, but these will be isolated and infrequent. Northerly flow
on Friday will veer throughout the day, becoming SE by late
afternoon. SE flow will remain light on Friday night, below 10
knots.

Saturday through Tuesday... SW winds increase on Saturday as a
cold front approaches the area overnight into early Sunday. High
pressure settles over New England on Sunday with NE flow
increasing to 15-20 knots. High pressure exists for only a brief
period as a much stronger cold front approaches from the west
with southerly flow increasing Sunday night into Monday,
approaching 20 knots late Monday with higher gusts out of the
SW. Cold front moves through the area overnight with offshore
flow developing, but quickly abating after high pressure builds
into the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The state of North Carolina has issued a state-wide burn ban
in effect until further notice. This means outdoor open burning
is strictly prohibited. RH on Friday will drop to around 30%
inland, and between 30-40% along the coast as dry conditions
continue and fuel moistures remain excessively low.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
UPDATE...TRA
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...21
FIRE WEATHER...21


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