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075
FXUS62 KILM 140159
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
959 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will move further offshore tonight, allowing
continued Gulf moisture to spread northward. Widespread showers
should develop late tonight and be joined by thunderstorms and
areas of heavy rain on Tue morning as a warm front lifts
through. Scattered showers and storms will remain possible
through Wed, but dry weather is expected on Thu as high
pressure builds in. More rain chances could develop late Fri
into Sat as the next storm system approaches.
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&&

.UPDATE...
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Have tweaked temps up a degree or 2 along the ILM CWA coast due
to onshore flow across 70+ degree waters. Have continued the
trend of increasing POPs overnight with low level influx of
moisture evident via latest near term models and KLTX VWP.
Initially, showers moving northward will be low topped but may
become better organized into tstorm activity toward daybreak
Tue. An embedded s/w trof within 5h flow will past just south
of the FA come Tue morning but should enhance the pcpn coverage
and intensity especially across the ILM SC CWA and coastal
waters after daybreak Tue.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ejecting shortwave over the southeastern US will bring deep
moisture overnight. Increasing moisture and isentropic lift will
bring widespread showers by Tuesday morning, increasing in
intensity throughout the day. Periods of heavy rain are
possible, especially during the afternoon along the coast. Weak
instability may fuel a few isolated thunderstorms. Strong shear
and low level helicity could produce a tornado in the strongest
of these storms. Thick cloud cover will keep temperatures in the
upper 70s. Inland on the west side of the low, temperatures may
peak in the mid 70s. Showers become scattered during the late
afternoon as dry air filters in behind the exiting low.

Rainfall totals have decreased since the latest forecast
update. Models continue to waiver in how uniform precipitation
will be as it shifts north and east on Tuesday. Still, periods
of heavy rain area expected which could make travel difficult
for a brief period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
On the backside of the lead shortwave responsible for the
widespread shower activity on Tuesday, weak shortwave ridging
and the loss of any daytime heating should result in a relative
lull in shower activity during Tuesday evening. With another
impulse following close behind it and nocturnal cooling acting
to reduce instability, some guidance suggests a decaying line of
showers and thunderstorms may arrive in the western zones
around midnight and continue dissipating as it tracks across the
Pee Dee region. Whether or not this occurs, forcing provided by
the impulse should result in at least isolated to widely
scattered showers and storms during the overnight hours before a
cold front pushes through on Wednesday morning, especially with
pwats remaining 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal until
the frontal passage occurs. Overnight lows will remain quite
mild ahead of the cold front, with mid-upper 60s forecast.

On Wednesday, with the closed mid-level low and several
vorticity lobes rotating about it tracking eastward, this will
bring the potential for at least a couple waves of showers and
thunderstorms across the area, especially during the afternoon
and evening. Weak to moderate instability and modest but
sufficient effective shear remains evident on forecast
soundings, keeping at least a marginal risk (threat level 1 out
of 5) for severe weather in play, with the main threats being
large hail and damaging winds. High temperatures should reach
the low-mid 80s with mixed clouds and sun as cooler temperatures
aloft help to develop plenty of cumulus. Showers and storms
should dissipate late on Wednesday with the loss of daytime
heating. With passage of the mid-level low aloft, another cold
front is expected to slide through from the north, veering winds
to NNW overnight. Low temps will depend on how much cool
advection happens behind the front, with low-mid 60s presently
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mid-level ridging and surface high pressure will make for a dry
and pleasant Thursday into Friday morning with daytime highs in
the low-mid 80s and overnight lows in the low-mid 60s.

Dry weather will be short-lived as another upper system
approaches from the west and brings unsettled weather over the
weekend. Guidance continues to show some differences in the
timing and evolution of the mid-level features, which has
resulted in keeping PoPs in the chance range across the area for
this update. Temperatures are expected to stay above normal,
but of course these will be modulated by the extent of cloud
cover and showers. The storm system should move offshore by
Sunday with weak high pressure building in behind it for the
start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mid and upper level VFR ceilings to dominate this evening,
then after 05Z, look for periodic MVFR ceilings and vsby from
showers and fog to begin overspreading the area from SW to NE.
After daybreak, inland terminals may see dominate MVFR with
periodic IFR from the heavier showers and lowered ceilings.
Have also indicated Prob30 groups inland terminals for
thunderstorm potential. At the coastal terminals, will follow
inland terminals per se, but at a slower degradation pace with
respect to both ceilings and vsby. Nevertheless, periodic IFR
will likely occur at all terminals, with the inland terminals
the best chance. WFP will during Tue aftn/evening, with the
thunderstorm activity in the vicinity of this boundary. Winds
generally E-SE around 5 kt tonight, 10-15 kt (g20 kt at the
coastal terminals) daylight Tue, becoming SSE-S after the WFP.

Extended Outlook...Periodic flight restrictions may occur
Tue night thru Wed ahead of the next weather system. VFR
conditions to dominate Thu thru Fri. The next system with
potential flight restrictions approaches Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...
Onshore flow will increase tonight ahead of a developing low. SE
winds turn southerly by Tuesday morning and winds increase to
15-20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots at times. The existing
Small Craft Advisory has been extended to all nearshore waters
through early Wednesday, primarily for 4-7 foot seas. Showers
and thunderstorms on Tuesday could bring a strong wind gust or
isolated waterspout.

Tuesday night through Saturday...
SCA conditions due to seas are expected to continue through
Tuesday night while isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms continue ahead of a cold front. The cold front
will push offshore on Wednesday, however, unsettled weather
conditions due to additional showers and storms may linger into
Wednesday evening before high pressure finally builds across
the Carolinas for Thursday into Friday. Another storm system may
bring unsettled weather for late Friday through Saturday, but
winds and seas are currently expected to stay below SCA
thresholds.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: There is a high risk of rip currents for

Strong onshore winds will increase surf heights to as high as 4
ft Tuesday. Higher surf heights combined with long period
easterly swell will create conditions conducive to the
development of strong rip currents for the beaches of North
Carolina on Tuesday.

&&


.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday
     morning for NCZ106-108-110.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 9 AM EDT Wednesday
     for AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...21/ABW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TRL