-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
757
FXUS62 KILM 011805
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
205 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will continue to move through the
Carolinas today, bringing a few showers and isolated
thunderstorms to the area. Forecast dries out and temperatures
warm slightly Thursday and Friday. From there, a frontal
boundary brings scattered showers and storms to the area
throughout the weekend, with another drying trend due by the
beginning of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
No major changes from the ongoing forecast with this update.
Pop-up convection continues along the sea breeze. Brief
downpours, gusty winds, and isolated lightning strikes will be
the main hazards.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Lingering convection currently crossing the forecast area is
associated with a 5h shortwave poised to move offshore later
this morning. Although the wave pushes offshore before midday,
it is moving slow enough that afternoon convection will still be
possible. Forecast soundings show post-wave subsidence
increasing west of I-95 in the afternoon, but closer to the
coast profiles remain supportive of deeper convection. Mid-level
lapse rates are somewhat marginal, but temperatures above
normal will result in sea breeze development. Diurnal
instability and the sea breeze will be more than enough to
generate scattered afternoon convection. The mid-level
environment will gradually become less favorable just as surface
based instability is increasing, hence the limited rain
chances. Not expecting anything more than typical warm season
showers and thunderstorms today given the storm environment.

Any convection hanging around into late afternoon will quickly
come to an end as subsidence aloft increases and surface based
CAPE drops to near nothing. Fog will be a concern tonight with
boundary layer winds becoming light and variable to calm. Dense
fog will be possible in any areas that end up seeing rain later
today. Lows will run above climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Mostly quiet weather this period. Mid-level ridging pokes up
Thursday before sinking back southward and eventually shunted
offshore Friday. Ample subsidence over the area keeps a mostly
dry forecast in play, with highs each day in the mid 80s inland,
near 80 at the coast. Lows each night in the low-to-mid 60s.

Rain chances increase slightly from the west Friday night, with
a shortwave aloft associated with a frontal system approaching
the area. Even so, think this will manifest in mostly increased
cloud cover as opposed to rain chances.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Progression of the surface front has slowed down a good bit,
but with plenty of mid-level energy moving through aloft, it
doesn`t necessarily matter. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
possible Saturday, with the heaviest activity probably being
more inland, closer to the stalled out front. The front may try
to inch a bit closer to the forecast area Sunday, but still
likely lingers across the Piedmont and SC Upstate, due to lack
of steering flow aloft. Regardless, scattered showers and storms
continue throughout the weekend.

Front eventually washes out by the beginning of next week,
which does temper the rain chances a bit. Even so, isolated
showers and storms could be possible Monday and Tuesday
afternoon, due to more mesoscale factors in play.

Highs in the lower 80s Saturday and Sunday, due to clouds and
rain. Temperatures rebound back to the mid 80s Monday and
Tuesday with more sunshine. Lows each night in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR conditions are expected to prevail today outside of brief
MVFR to IFR cigs/vis if heavy showers or tstms move over the
terminals. Otherwise, expect skies to clear tonight as diurnal
cu collapse and debris clouds from earlier convection
dissipate. Without any notable push of dry air into the region
and a weak pressure gradient, expect winds to become calm
overnight, which will support considerable fog and low cig
development, especially where rainfall has occurred. Opted to
message this with LIFR conditions late in the night, which
carries moderate to high confidence at this time, particularly
for the coastal terminals.

Extended Outlook...Generally VFR through the period outside of
early morning mist/low cigs from Friday through Sunday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Overall decrease in wind speeds today with
weaker gradient in place over the waters. Lingering morning
convection will lift northeast as shortwave aloft exits the
region. Southerly flow will generally be under 10 kt away from
the coast. Closer to the coast 10-12kt is likely with gusts
around 15kt. Gusts will not be as strong as recent days. May see
some afternoon storms move over the waters after developing
along the sea breeze, but these would really only affect
nearshore waters. Seas 2-3 ft this morning drop around 2 ft in
the afternoon and overnight with the southerly wind wave
remaining dominant over the southeast to east swell.

Thursday through Sunday...Winds are likely more variable
earlier in the day Thursday, before developing a southeasterly
onshore component by the afternoon. By Thursday night, winds are
more consistently 5-10kts through Sunday, generally from the
south or south-southeast. Seas at 1-2ft through Saturday,
gradually building up to 2-3ft by Sunday. Two main swells are
out of the east at 9-12 seconds, and southeast at 5-7 seconds.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...ABW
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...III/IGB