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467
FXUS62 KILM 050030
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
830 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur this weekend
due to several upper level disturbances, diurnal heating, and
the daily sea breeze. Dry high pressure will build overhead by
Wednesday with well above normal temperatures likely during the
middle and late portions of next week. Rain chances increase
towards the end of next week due to an approaching frontal
system.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Scattered showers continue west of US 701, with a few embedded
thunderstorms across the Pee Dee region. This activity will
briefly diminish as we head into evening hours. The mid level
convergence and accompanying moisture axis currently inland
(aiding ongoing showers) will shift eastward towards the coast
overnight as ridging off to the east begins to move southward.
This will lead to widespread PWATs over 1.6" across the FA for
Sunday. Will see showers move onshore across northeast SC
overnight, spreading northward into Cape Fear region by morning.
Well above normal low temps tonight in the mid 60s due to
clouds and showers. Despite increased cloud coverage tomorrow
morning with ample low level moisture, there should be enough
sunshine tomorrow afternoon to lead to another day of diurnal
convection, including coastal counties this time along sea
breeze. High temps around 80F Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Unsettled weather continues through the short term period.
Moisture advection picks up Mon ahead of the next shortwave. The
higher PWATs paired with the more saturated soils due to
continued rain could support the threat of some localized
heavier downpours. The shortwave will move offshore by Tues
morning with ridging building in behind it. Lingering
instability and moisture support continued scattered showers and
storms through the day Tuesday. Highs in the low to mid 80s
with lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Quiet but hot weather through midweek as the ridge amplifies
aloft with drier mid level air and subsidence. Highs will
increase into the 90s with decent humidity. Still no heat
advisory concerns with the current forecast. Current forecast is
2 deg off the record high for Wilmington NC Wed, but high
clouds might make it hard to get any warmer. High clouds look to
also be overhead Thurs aftn, so didn`t go as high as the NBM
with highs. An approaching cold front increases rain chances
towards the weekend, the frontal passage currently expected
sometime Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR to start off the 00Z TAF period with showers also starting
to dissipate across the area. Still expect rain chances to
return Sunday morning however, along with MVFR ceilings
especially inland. Lower confidence near the coast...so kept it
VFR there for now Sunday, but will re-evaluate in future
updates. Slight chance of thunder as well Sunday with ~10 kt
southerly flow.

Extended Outlook...Scattered convection will bring periodic
visibility and ceiling restrictions Mon. Otherwise, looking at
VFR dominating outside the pcpn and becoming the mainstay Tue
into Wed.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday...Onshore flow strengthens a bit tonight into
Sunday as offshore high pressure shifts southward, with SSE
winds around 10- 15 kts and some sea breeze enhancement closer
to the coast Sunday afternoon. Scattered showers, with isolated
thunderstorms, will move in from the south across coastal waters
after midnight and continue through early Sunday before
diminishing. 2 ft seas this evening increase to 3 feet by
morning as SE wind wave builds, with weak E swell persisting.

Sunday Night through Thursday...SW flow 10-15 kts expected
through the period, with mild enhancement in the winds during
the afternoons due to the sea breeze. Seas 2-3 ft increasing to
3-5 ft through Wed into Thurs due to an increasing southerly
wind wave (3-5 ft at 5- 6 seconds) and a weaker long period
swell from the ENE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...VAO/LEW