Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FNUS52 KILM 190708
FWFILM

Fire Weather Planning Forecast
for Northeast South Carolina and Southeast North Carolina
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
308 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Tropical Storm Nestor in the Gulf of Mexico will track NE and
transition into an extratropical low as it moves across the Florida
Panhandle early today. This low will continue NE, tracking just
inland from both Carolina Coasts late this afternoon through Sunday morning,
reaching the Northern Outer Banks late Sunday afternoon. Expect
periods of heavy rain and gusty winds late tonight and overnight.
Weak high pressure will follow late Sunday into Monday.

Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.

Fog potential for tonight is Low.

NCZ105>110-192315-
Inland Pender-Coastal Pender-Inland New Hanover-Coastal New Hanover-
Inland Brunswick-Coastal Brunswick-
Including the cities of Burgaw, Surf City, Wilmington, Masonboro,
Myrtle Grove, Ogden, Carolina Beach, Seagate, Boiling Spring Lakes,
Leland, Shallotte, Oak Island, Long Beach, Southport,
and Sunset Beach
308 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

                      Today        Tonight      Sun

Cloud amount          Pcldy        Cloudy       Mcldy
Precip chc (%)        90           100          70
Precip type           Showers      Showers      Tstms
LAL                   1            2            2
Min/Max Temp          70           63           73
Wnd20ft/early(mph)    E  5         SE 12 G26    SW 10 G24
Wnd20ft/late(mph)     SE  9 G22    SE 13 G28    NW 10 G21
Precip amount         0.10         1.54         0.37
Precip duration       3            12           3
Inversion             60/1000      1700         68/0600
Dispersion                         Excellent
Max/Min RH (%)        51           98           68
DSI                   1                         1
Haines Index          4            2            2
Mixing hgt (ft-AGL)   4400                      3200
Transport wnd (mph)   SE 16                     W 18
Ventilation rate      70840                     58880
ADI early             43 Gen good  21 Fair      54 Gen good
ADI late              49 Gen good  21 Fair      61 Good
Max LVORI early       6            5            5
Max LVORI late        3            5            3

Remarks...Brotak Stack Present.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. Maximum RH
99 percent. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Minimum RH 65 percent.
Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. Maximum RH
100 percent. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Highs around 80.
Minimum RH 70 percent. Chance of showers 60 percent. South winds
10 to 15 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the mid 50s. Maximum RH 100 percent. West winds 10 to
15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Minimum RH 42 percent.
Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Maximum RH
84 percent. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Minimum RH 47 percent.
Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. Maximum RH
92 percent. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs in
the mid 70s. Minimum RH 64 percent. East winds 5 to 10 mph.

$$

NCZ087-096-099-192315-
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-
Including the cities of Lumberton, Elizabethtown, Bladenboro,
Whiteville, Tabor City, Chadbourn, and Lake Waccamaw
308 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

                      Today        Tonight      Sun

Cloud amount          Mcldy        Cloudy       Mcldy
Precip chc (%)        90           100          70
Precip type           Showers      Showers      Tstms
LAL                   1            2            2
Min/Max Temp          69           60           71
Wnd20ft/early(mph)    E  4         E 11 G20     NW  9
Wnd20ft/late(mph)     E  9         E 11 G20     NW  9
Precip amount         0.14         1.77         0.27
Precip duration       3            12           2
Inversion             59/1100      1700         67/1300
Dispersion                         Excellent
Max/Min RH (%)        46           100          67
DSI                   1                         1
Haines Index          4            2            2
Mixing hgt (ft-AGL)   3910                      3220
Transport wnd (mph)   SE 17                     W 15
Ventilation rate      67450                     48140
ADI early             36 Fair      17 Gen poor  48 Gen good
ADI late              49 Gen good  13 Gen poor  55 Gen good
Max LVORI early       7            5            5
Max LVORI late        3            7            4

Remarks...Brotak Stack Present.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. Maximum RH
100 percent. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Minimum RH 62 percent.
East winds around 5 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the lower 60s. Maximum RH 100 percent. Southeast winds
around 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Highs around 80.
Minimum RH 69 percent. Chance of showers 60 percent. South winds
5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Cooler. Lows in the lower 50s. Maximum RH 100 percent. West winds
5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny, cooler. Highs around 70. Minimum RH 41 percent.
Northwest winds around 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Maximum RH
88 percent. Northwest winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Minimum RH 44 percent.
Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. Maximum RH
93 percent. Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the lower 70s. Minimum RH 63 percent. East winds around 5 mph.

$$

SCZ054>056-058-059-192315-
Coastal Horry-Inland Georgetown-Coastal Georgetown-Central Horry-
Northern Horry-
Including the cities of Myrtle Beach, Socastee, North Myrtle Beach,
Garden City, Little River, Andrews, Georgetown, Murrells Inlet,
Conway, Longs, Bucksport, Loris, Green Sea, and Aynor
308 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

                      Today        Tonight      Sun

Cloud amount          Mcldy        Cloudy       Mcldy
Precip chc (%)        100          100          50
Precip type           Showers      Tstms        Showers
LAL                   1            2            2
Min/Max Temp          71           62           73
Wnd20ft/early(mph)    E  7         SE 14 G28    W  9 G23
Wnd20ft/late(mph)     E 12 G26     S 12 G27     NW  9 G20
Precip amount         0.36         1.98         0.12
Precip duration       5            12           1
Inversion             62/1000      1600         66/0600
Dispersion                         Excellent
Max/Min RH (%)        60           100          66
DSI                   1                         1
Haines Index          3            3            2
Mixing hgt (ft-AGL)   2550                      3110
Transport wnd (mph)   SE 18                     W 17
Ventilation rate      46920                     53650
ADI early             29 Fair      28 Fair      61 Good
ADI late              37 Fair      27 Fair      61 Good
Max LVORI early       6            5            4
Max LVORI late        4            5            4

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Maximum RH
99 percent. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Minimum RH 67 percent.
East winds around 5 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the mid 60s. Maximum RH 100 percent. Southeast winds 5 to
10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Highs around 80.
Minimum RH 69 percent. Chance of showers 60 percent. South winds
10 to 15 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Cooler. Lows in the lower 50s. Maximum RH 96 percent. West winds
10 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny, cooler. Highs around 70. Minimum RH 44 percent.
Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Maximum RH
85 percent. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Minimum RH 49 percent.
Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Maximum RH
91 percent. East winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the mid 70s. Minimum RH 66 percent. East winds 5 to 10 mph.

$$

SCZ024-032-033-039-192315-
Dillon-Florence-Marion-Williamsburg-
Including the cities of Dillon, Florence, Marion, Mullins,
and Kingstree
308 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

                      Today        Tonight      Sun

Cloud amount          Mcldy        Cloudy       Pcldy
Precip chc (%)        100          100          50
Precip type           Showers      Showers      Showers
LAL                   1            2            1
Min/Max Temp          68           60           73
Wnd20ft/early(mph)    E  6         E 12 G20     NW  9
Wnd20ft/late(mph)     E 11 G21     SW 10        NW  7
Precip amount         0.44         1.95         0.12
Precip duration       6            11           1
Inversion             63/1100      1500         66/0600
Dispersion                         Excellent
Max/Min RH (%)        54           99           64
DSI                   1                         1
Haines Index          3            3            3
Mixing hgt (ft-AGL)   2140                      3280
Transport wnd (mph)   E 17                      W 20
Ventilation rate      36920                     64120
ADI early             21 Fair      16 Gen poor  59 Gen good
ADI late              31 Fair      14 Gen poor  58 Gen good
Max LVORI early       6            5            5
Max LVORI late        4            5            4

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Maximum RH
100 percent. North winds around 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH
62 percent. East winds around 5 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the lower 60s. Maximum RH 100 percent. Southeast winds
around 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Highs around 80.
Minimum RH 66 percent. Chance of showers 60 percent. South winds
5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Cooler. Lows around 50. Maximum RH 92 percent. West winds 5 to
10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny, cooler. Highs around 70. Minimum RH 41 percent.
Northwest winds around 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Maximum RH
88 percent. North winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Minimum RH 47 percent.
Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. Maximum RH
92 percent. East winds around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the lower 70s. Minimum RH 65 percent. East winds around 5 mph.

$$

SCZ017-023-192315-
Marlboro-Darlington-
Including the cities of Bennettsville, McColl, Hartsville,
Darlington, and North Hartsville
308 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

                      Today        Tonight      Sun

Cloud amount          Mcldy        Cloudy       Pcldy
Precip chc (%)        100          100          50
Precip type           Showers      Showers      Showers
LAL                   1            1            1
Min/Max Temp          67           59           73
Wnd20ft/early(mph)    E  5         E 12 G21     N 10 G20
Wnd20ft/late(mph)     E 10 G21     N 11 G20     N  7
Precip amount         0.37         1.71         0.15
Precip duration       4            11           1
Inversion             57/1000      1600         64/1200
Dispersion                         Excellent
Max/Min RH (%)        49           100          62
DSI                   1                         1
Haines Index          4            3            2
Mixing hgt (ft-AGL)   2720                      3630
Transport wnd (mph)   E 18                      NW 18
Ventilation rate      50050                     66790
ADI early             29 Fair      17 Gen poor  52 Gen good
ADI late              39 Fair      17 Gen poor  60 Gen good
Max LVORI early       6            5            5
Max LVORI late        3            6            4

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Maximum RH
100 percent. Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH
60 percent. East winds around 5 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the lower 60s. Maximum RH 100 percent. Southeast winds
around 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Highs in the upper
70s. Minimum RH 65 percent. Chance of showers 60 percent. South
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Cooler. Lows around 50. Maximum RH 91 percent. West winds 5 to
10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Minimum RH 38 percent.
Northwest winds around 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Maximum RH
87 percent. Northwest winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Minimum RH 43 percent.
Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. Maximum RH
91 percent. East winds around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the lower 70s. Minimum RH 63 percent. East winds around 5 mph.

$$

.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...
Temperatures near normal.  Precipitation above normal.

$$


     SC USERS                               NC USERS
===================================================================
VENTILATION RATE         BURN CATEGORY  VENTILATION RATE
===================================================================
    0 TO 17249                 1             0 TO 33499
17250 TO 34499                 2         33500 TO 44999
34500 TO 51749                 3         45000 TO 59999
51750 TO 68999                 4         60000 TO 111999
69000 OR GREATER               5        112000 OR GREATER

     SC USERS                               NC USERS
===================================================================
FORECAST SURFACE WIND    DISPERSION    FORECAST SURFACE WIND
===================================================================
                         STAGNANT       NEAR CALM
CALM                     VERY POOR      2 TO 4 MPH
2 TO 5 MPH                 POOR         5 TO 8 MPH
6 TO 8 MPH                 FAIR         9 TO 12 MPH
9 TO 13 MPH                GOOD         GREATER THAN 12 MPH
14 MPH OR MORE           EXCELLENT

ADI is Atmospheric Dispersion Index by LAVDAS.
LVORI is Low Visibility Occurrence Risk Index.

$$


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