Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 241753 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 153 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure settling into the Great Lakes region will provide mild temperatures and dry conditions today with warmer temperatures and just a slight chance of a shower in the far south by Sunday evening. A warming trend will evolve towards the beginning of the workweek with increased precipitation chances Monday through Tuesday as a cold front progresses through the region by midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure will bring a dry and comfortable day to the region. Some scattered cumulus could work into west central and central Ohio this afternoon. Highs in the mid to upper 70s still look good. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... Lows tonight will again bottom out in the mid 50s (north) to around 60 degrees (south), with a fairly rapid drop-off in temps around and past sunset this evening. By Sunday, the aforementioned surface high will migrate further east of the region, allowing for southeasterly surface flow to become established by Sunday afternoon. This will help initiate better advection of moisture north into the Ohio Valley ahead of a digging trof across the mid-Missouri Valley. The arrival of this feature -- coupled with the subsequent passage of the low/mid level ridge axis -- will help initiate deep-layer moisture transport north into the region. However, it appears that as of right now, the best advection of such moisture will still be far enough south/west of the immediate local area that only a slight chance of an afternoon/evening shower will be possible across mainly the Tri-State area (and points further to the south/west). This slight chance of measurable precip will be coincident with the infiltration of higher surface dewpoints as the vertical profile gradually becomes more and more saturated (progressively from southwest to northeast during the day Sunday). Highs on Sunday will be noticeably warmer -- with temps topping out in the low to mid 80s with dewpoints reaching into the low/mid 60s by late in the day. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Mid level short wave energy will eject east northeast across the Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday. This is ahead of a broader and deeper upper level trough that will slowly shift east across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Region through mid to late week. The initial short wave will lead to an increasing chance of showers from the west Sunday night. A better chance of showers will then overspread the remainder of our area through the day on Monday. Instability appears to be fairly limited, so will only include a slight chance of an embedded thunderstorm, mainly for Monday afternoon. Highs on Monday will be in the 75 to 80 degree range. A secondary mid level short wave, along with an associated cold front, will the push across the region Late Monday night and into the day on Tuesday. This will bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday into Tuesday night. Highs on Tuesday will be mostly in the lower 80s. Surface high pressure and a drier airmass will then build east across the Ohio River Valley for mid to late in the week. This will lead to dry conditions for Wednesday through Friday with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Cumulus field has built farther south than expected, covering much of the fa, with the exception of a minimum running from from CVG/LUK up to ILN. Cumulus will begin to dissipate towards 00Z and clear skies are expected shortly after 00Z. Around 12Z Sunday, cirrus will be on the increase from the southwest. The cirrus will slowly spread northeast during the day. Meanwhile, scattered VFR cumulus is expected to develop around 15z. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Monday and Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KC NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Sites

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