Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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335 FXUS61 KILN 200538 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 138 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will prevail through the weekend with a gradual warming trend. More humid conditions will return next week along with chances of showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... No changes needed to the forecast tonight, as high pressure remains in place over the southern Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley. A swath of cirrus clouds is progressing into the area ahead of an upper level trough, but low-level moisture remains limited, with these relatively dry conditions expected to continue overnight. Dewpoints are low enough to preclude widespread fog, and the cirrus shield extends across most of the rougher terrain in the ILN forecast area. At most, could see some modest fog in protected valley locations if winds go calm. No change to min temps overnight. Previous discussion > Surface high pressure will extend across the southern Great Lakes tonight. Weak mid level energy moving east across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys will bring a bit of high clouds to locations along and southeast of the I-71 corridor. Otherwise, diurnal cumulus will dissipate with sunset, leaving locations northwest of the I-71 corridor with mostly clear skies. Dry northeast surface flow will allow temperatures to range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Surface high pressure will remain across the southern Great Lakes during the short term period. Meanwhile, weak mid level energy will continue to rotate east/northeast across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will bring mainly a mix of high level clouds and diurnal cumulus. However, there may be enough deep moisture creeping up into our extreme southeast zones for an isolated afternoon or early evening shower/storm. It will be seasonably warm in the 80s with overnight lows Saturday night falling into the lower to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Extended forecast period begins with high pressure across the Southern Great Lakes offering dry weather into Sunday. Active weather period begins early next week with the mid and upper air pattern characterized by a long wave mid level trof across the central CONUS placing the Ohio Valley in broad southwesterly flow. A quasi-stationary boundary will setup across the area with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Have enhanced threat for thunderstorms both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon with likely pops and the highest pops located across the south. Instability and shear values are marginal - so organized severe storm threat remains low - more typical for late July. However, moisture increases with fcst PWAT values approaching 2 inches - so can not rule out a localized flood threat. High temperatures Sunday look to range from the lower 80s north to the upper 80s south. Highs thru the week look to generally be between 80 and 85 - near or slightly below normal due to clouds and pcpn. Lows thru the period are generally in the mid and upper 60s. && .AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Outside of the potential for some mist/fog at KLUK before 12Z, VFR will continue to prevail. There will be some clouds in the 5-7kft deck about the area through much of the period, primarily few to scattered until after 00Z when a ceiling may develop into the Cincinnati area. Light northeast winds will back to north or even northwest during the day. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday through Wednesday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...Hatzos/Hickman SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...