


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --844 FXUS61 KILN 031758 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 158 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will prevail into the weekend. A weak cold front will drop into the area early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --Quiet weather continues through the rest of the near term period with only a slight chance (20%) for showers/isolated thunder across northern portions of the area (along and north of I-70). These PoPs are higher than the NBM with collaboration occurring between surrounding NWS offices resulting in this change. High pressure slowly drifts northeast into the region tonight and will remain into tomorrow. Watch for some patchy fog, especially in the river valleys to start the holiday. Low temperatures a couple degrees warming than this morning, in the mid to upper 60s.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --For Independence Day, surface high pressure drifts northeast up the Ohio River region. Winds are light and variable and mostly dry conditions are forecast. High temperatures will climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s but with dewpoint temperatures in the low to mid 60s, heat stress will be slightly improved from the heat wave last month. Still, abundant sunshine and calm winds support hot conditions. Once again, a slight chance for showers/isolated thunderstorms was added across the far north (north of I-70) in collaboration with surrounding NWS offices. With the rest of the area staying dry, the last thing to mention is the potential for lingering firework smoke Friday evening. Given the light winds and high pressure, smoke will be slow to clear. Temperatures drop into the lower 80s and upper 70s for the evening before dropping into the upper 60s to low 70s for Saturday morning.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Saturday dominated by strong ridging dominating the central CONUS and surface high pressure centered just east of the area, with dewpoints for the most part below 70 until later in the day. Some slight potential for heat index values in the upper 90s. A little uncertainty as to whether 70 dewpoints will coincide with peak heating, so for now, not seeing HIs at 100. High temperatures in the upper 80s to low/mid 90s. The ridge begins to break down starting Sunday, making way for a more zonal flow pattern. A weak surface front will approach the region from the NW late Sunday. With increase surface moisture and fewer clouds across the south, some potential for heat index values to reach 100. Slight chances for widely scattered storms in increasing instability begins late Sunday. The frontal boundary will be a focus of increased shower/thunderstorm chances Monday/Monday evening, with the front expected to pass south of the Ohio River late Monday night. As weak surface high pressure passing through the Great Lakes on Tuesday, could be a bit of a lull for areas near/north of I-70, with slightly better chances south of the river closer to the slow moving frontal boundary. The front eventually lifts north into the region for midweek, keeping a chance for showers and storms through the week, enhanced with diurnal heating. Temperatures generally near normal, with mid/upper 80s for highs and upper 60s for lows.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Prevailing VFR conditions with the exception of some patchy fog (only mentioned at LUK for now) Friday morning. Otherwise, scattered cumulus will form in the afternoon before dissipating in the evening. Winds out of the northwest today become light and variable tomorrow with high pressure over the region. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...-- Changed Discussion --OH...None. KY...None. IN...Air Quality Alert from midnight tonight to midnight EDT Friday night for INZ050-058-059-066.-- End Changed Discussion --&& $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...McGinnis SHORT TERM...McGinnis LONG TERM...JDR AVIATION...McGinnis