Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 271957 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 357 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Periods of rain expected through the midway point of Friday night before dissipating as the upper low pushes eastward. An extended period of dry weather is expected as an upper ridge builds over the Ohio Valley. This will provide a significant warmup in temperatures through the weekend, with summer like conditions persisting through the majority of the next work week.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
GOES-16 imagery shows the broad circulation associated with the upper low, which is centered near the Tristate this afternoon. This upper low will continue its slow, eastward progression today and keep the pattern unsettled. Radar imagery at 3:15 PM shows numerous rain showers spread throughout our fa, still lacking any thunder. Models still suggest the potential for thunder through this evening with increasing instability, but trends so far have been meager with the thunder activity. Have tapered back on the thunder wording in the grids with just mentioning isolated storms through 8 PM. Additionally, updated PoPs to mention coverage in showers as they will remain numerous to scattered through the late evening hours as broad ascent continues. By midnight, majority of the pcpn will have dissipated, but a few sprinkles may still be possible. Winds lighten and shift out of the NW overnight. Skies still expected to remain mostly cloudy however, so did not include any mention of fog yet. However, there could be pockets of some shallow fog forming similar to Friday morning given the highly saturated soils.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Energy from the upper low will have shifted east of our CWA Saturday morning, allowing the forecast to finally remain dry. Surface high pressure begins to build underneath a strengthening H5 ridge. The ridge is slow to amplify, so we won`t see a significant WAA regime quite yet. This will allow daytime highs to remain just below seasonal normals in the low to mid-70s, with skies gradually clearing from west to east throughout the day. Skies continue to clear out Saturday night, with mostly clear skies favored after midnight. This should aid in some of the radiative cooling processes, allowing lows to dip into the middle 50s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Ridging at the surface and aloft will result in dry conditions for the early part of the week with rising temperatures. Daytime readings will get into the upper 80s to lower 90s by Tuesday. As a short wave lifts from the Plains across the upper Great Lakes, it will take low pressure eastward with a trailing cold front sagging into the lower Great Lakes. Convection that develops along this front could possibly get into northern counties Wednesday afternoon. Better chance of showers and storms will come Thursday area wide as another short wave tracks up the Ohio Valley while the surface cold front pushes through the forecast area. High pressure will then build in for Friday with temperatures falling closer to normal.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Upper low is now positioned over the Tristate and will continue its eastward progression through the day. Episodes of light to moderate rain showers are forecast through the late evening as broad ascent from the low occurs. Models still want to introduce thunder this afternoon, but latest trends seem to indicate that these showers will struggle to produce any thunder. As such, kept a VCTS mention in for now with a prevailing -SHRA through the evening. With the scattered nature of the showers, did not include any vsby reductions as being prevailing, but brief periods of MVFR (with isolated IFR) possible in the heavier showers. Additionally, cannot rule out a few wind gusts from the WSW of about 20 kts through the early evening. After ~00z, coverage in showers will decrease and thunder potential will likely have diminished, so just have VCSH for a several hour window into the early overnight hours. Main impact overnight will be a reduction in CIGs, with majority of terminals observing IFR CIGs. Only site where confidence is lower is at KDAY, so just put in a TEMPO group for now. Overnight, winds gradually shift towards the WNW, but will remain light (~5 kts). CIGs begin to improve back to MVFR by the mid morning hours Saturday, with VFR likely near the end of the taf period. OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Clark NEAR TERM...Clark SHORT TERM...Clark LONG TERM... AVIATION...Clark

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.