Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 092358 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 658 PM EST Sun Dec 9 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure will build into the region early this week. This will lead to dry conditions and a gradual return to more normal like temperatures through Tuesday. A chance of precipitation will return through mid to late week as a series of weather disturbances affect the Ohio Valley. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Will hang on to some lower end pops across our far southeast through late afternoon to account for any lingering light rain/snow showers. Otherwise, cirrus across our area should continue to thin out as we head into tonight and surface high pressure builds east into the region. The 12Z NAM is considerably more moist in the low levels compared to the GFS and ECMWF for later tonight. We do seem to be fairly dry at the moment so would tend to think the NAM is overdone. However, it is tough to totally discount the NAM so will hedge a little and have at least some partly cloudy conditions across the north late tonight. If the NAM does end up being right, we could also have some fog issues across the north late, but will hold off on introducing that at this point. Overnight lows will generally be in the 15 to 20 degree range. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/... Surface high pressure will shift slowly south across the Ohio River Valley Monday into Monday night. The NAM is still hanging onto a good deal of low level moisture through much of the short term period. Again, thinking that this is overdone so will continue with mainly clear skies for Monday afternoon into Monday night. With a cool airmass still in place across the region, highs on Monday will range from the lower 30s in the north to the upper 30s across the south. Lows Monday night will be in the upper teens to lower 20s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Look for dry weather Tuesday with high pressure centered to the southwest and short wave energy confined to the north. Wednesday should be dry to start before moisture increases ahead of a closed upper low, producing a chance of rain and snow showers from late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. For Thursday night and Friday, potent low pressure to the south coming in phase with a northern stream trough will bring widespread rain showers, with snow possibly mixing in across northern counties. Showers may linger into Saturday until high pressure and a dry airmass arrive on Sunday. Temperatures are forecast to start slightly below normal Tuesday with highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s expected. After near normal reading around 40 are attained on Wednesday, above normal highs in the 40s are indicated for Thursday through Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Northwest flow aloft with a surface ridge of high pressure building into the area overnight. High level clouds associated with the departing system to our south will continue to thin out this evening. Low clouds over the Great Lakes to track south...perhaps encroaching into ILN/s far northern counties toward sunrise. NAM solution seems too aggressive with this moisture based on current location of clouds. Therefore, have followed a solution closer to GFS/ECMWF, allowing clouds and lower vsbys to stay north of the TAF sites. There still exists uncertainty and this will have to continue to be monitored overnight with KCMH/KLCK having the best chance of these IFR conditions. Light northeast winds will back northwest on Monday. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...AR

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