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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 271957
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
357 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
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Periods of rain expected through the midway point of Friday
night before dissipating as the upper low pushes eastward. An
extended period of dry weather is expected as an upper ridge
builds over the Ohio Valley. This will provide a significant
warmup in temperatures through the weekend, with summer like
conditions persisting through the majority of the next work
week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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GOES-16 imagery shows the broad circulation associated with the
upper low, which is centered near the Tristate this afternoon.
This upper low will continue its slow, eastward progression
today and keep the pattern unsettled. Radar imagery at 3:15 PM
shows numerous rain showers spread throughout our fa, still
lacking any thunder. Models still suggest the potential for
thunder through this evening with increasing instability, but
trends so far have been meager with the thunder activity. Have
tapered back on the thunder wording in the grids with just
mentioning isolated storms through 8 PM. Additionally, updated
PoPs to mention coverage in showers as they will remain numerous
to scattered through the late evening hours as broad ascent
continues.

By midnight, majority of the pcpn will have dissipated, but a
few sprinkles may still be possible. Winds lighten and shift out
of the NW overnight. Skies still expected to remain mostly
cloudy however, so did not include any mention of fog yet.
However, there could be pockets of some shallow fog forming
similar to Friday morning given the highly saturated soils.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Energy from the upper low will have shifted east of our CWA
Saturday morning, allowing the forecast to finally remain dry.
Surface high pressure begins to build underneath a strengthening
H5 ridge. The ridge is slow to amplify, so we won`t see a
significant WAA regime quite yet. This will allow daytime highs
to remain just below seasonal normals in the low to mid-70s,
with skies gradually clearing from west to east throughout the
day.

Skies continue to clear out Saturday night, with mostly clear
skies favored after midnight. This should aid in some of the
radiative cooling processes, allowing lows to dip into the
middle 50s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Ridging at the surface and aloft will result in dry conditions for
the early part of the week with rising temperatures. Daytime
readings will get into the upper 80s to lower 90s by Tuesday.

As a short wave lifts from the Plains across the upper Great Lakes,
it will take low pressure eastward with a trailing cold front
sagging into the lower Great Lakes. Convection that develops along
this front could possibly get into northern counties Wednesday
afternoon. Better chance of showers and storms will come Thursday
area wide as another short wave tracks up the Ohio Valley while the
surface cold front pushes through the forecast area.

High pressure will then build in for Friday with temperatures
falling closer to normal.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper low is now positioned over the Tristate and will continue
its eastward progression through the day. Episodes of light to
moderate rain showers are forecast through the late evening as
broad ascent from the low occurs. Models still want to introduce
thunder this afternoon, but latest trends seem to indicate that
these showers will struggle to produce any thunder. As such,
kept a VCTS mention in for now with a prevailing -SHRA through
the evening. With the scattered nature of the showers, did not
include any vsby reductions as being prevailing, but brief
periods of MVFR (with isolated IFR) possible in the heavier
showers. Additionally, cannot rule out a few wind gusts from
the WSW of about 20 kts through the early evening.

After ~00z, coverage in showers will decrease and thunder
potential will likely have diminished, so just have VCSH for a
several hour window into the early overnight hours. Main impact
overnight will be a reduction in CIGs, with majority of
terminals observing IFR CIGs. Only site where confidence is
lower is at KDAY, so just put in a TEMPO group for now.
Overnight, winds gradually shift towards the WNW, but will
remain light (~5 kts).

CIGs begin to improve back to MVFR by the mid morning hours
Saturday, with VFR likely near the end of the taf period.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clark
NEAR TERM...Clark
SHORT TERM...Clark
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Clark