Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 280750 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 350 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2023 .SYNOPSIS...
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Slow moving low pressure moves out of the region on Friday. High pressure and dry air are forecast to return for the weekend and is expected to continue through much of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Early this morning, repeated rounds of thunderstorms continue to impact north/northeast Kentucky and far southern Ohio. Over the rest of the area, very little convective activity has occurred leaving the southern portions of our area the big "winners" with regards to rainfall the last couple of days. There are pockets of lower visibility this morning, however, it is rather sporadic due to the influence of overnight clouds and thunderstorms. The upper level low has basically stalled over the tri-state (MI, IN, OH) with a relatively moist atmosphere in place over the area today. This will support additional shower development later this morning and afternoon even after the early morning activity decreases across the south. The weakening upper level low and lack of stronger jet dynamics likely results in rather tame showers/tstorm development this afternoon. Have highlighted the highest PoPs across eastern zones (east of I-75), but can`t rule out some slow moving showers closer to the apex of the 850mb inverted trough along and west of I-75. Shower activity increases and shifts east into the evening hours with the attention shifting to the potential for a rather potent fog/dense fog event begin in the late evening hours and last well through the Friday morning commute. In fact, confidence may become high enough during the evening to allow for a predictive dense fog advisory in advance of the worst conditions. Either way, much of the area is likely to see fog, with a vast majority seeing dense fog. Weak flow will struggle to clear fog through mid-morning so while school delays are likely, school closings are also probable in some areas.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As mentioned above, fog will be slow to clear with the potential for impacts up until the noon hour. Eventually, solar radiation will trigger enough turbulent mixing to break up the fog. The shortwave trough and upper level finally shift east of the region Friday afternoon, with mid-level height rises continuing through the evening and into the overnight. Shower activity may be gone, but lingering low level moisture will present another opportunity for fog into Saturday morning.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Amplified longwave pattern becomes well established this weekend with the 500 mb ridge axis over the region into early next week. This pattern will provide abundant sunshine and a gradual warming trend as high temperature return to the lower 80s. As the ridge shifts east into midweek, low level wind support the potential for high temperatures climbing into the mid 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. On Wednesday, the longwave trough over the western CONUS will be reinforced by the next shortwave. This will allow the trough (and next chance for rain) to potentially reach the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes regions by Thursday or Friday.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As mentioned in previous forecasts, the current weather situation across the area is difficult. Expect updates throughout the night as necessary. At this time, dense fog and LIFR CIGs are streaming northwestward toward ILN and DAY from the lower Scioto Valley. Shower and thunderstorm activity also continues across the area, avoiding the majority of area TAF sites. Will continue to monitor trends and adjust as necessary, but for now, have excluded thunder mention for everyone but CVG/LUK. Meanwhile, MVFR CIGs did not persist after initially developing in the CMH/LCK area. Given the overall setup, still have fairly high confidence of CIGs decreasing to at least IFR at most locations with LIFR currently advertised for ILN/DAY. CIGs are slow to improve between 12-16Z, but do eventually expect some scattering of clouds to MVFR or VFR. This break from the restrictions doesn`t last long as another round of IFR/LIFR VIS and CIGs are becoming more likely beyond 03Z Friday. These will be mentioned in the upcoming 12Z TAFs. Winds circulating counterclockwise around the low will be out of the east/southeast tonight before becoming more southerly/ southwesterly as the low approaches. Winds should remain under 10 knots through the period. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions likely Thursday night into Friday morning. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...McGinnis SHORT TERM...McGinnis LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...McGinnis

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