Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 250007 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 807 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system will continue to move southeast away from our region tonight. High pressure will then extend into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Sunday into Sunday night. Although warmer temperatures will return for the upcoming week, moisture will increase as well. This will bring a period of wet weather as we head through the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Precipitation band is beginning to weaken as forcing starts to come come to an end. Light wintry mixture will be possible over the next few hours until the band completely falls apart. Will hold onto to the winter headlines for a few more hours. The surface low will move away to our southeast overnight. This will allow high pressure to build in. Clouds will decrease from north to south after midnight. Winds will remain from the east, between 10 and 15 mph with some gusts between 20-25mph The wind should help to dry roads. Meanwhile temperature will stay up for through midnight, before falling. Between the wind and temperatures any refreezing of moisture will be limited.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... High pressure centered over northeast Canada will extend southeast into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Sunday. Mainly sunny skies are expected. Despite plentiful sunshine, temperatures will remain chilly for late March. In addition, stiff east/northeast winds will continue with gusts between 20 and 25 knots. This will make it feel a little colder. Highs will range from the lower 40s north to the mid/upper 40s south. For Sunday night, as the low level flow around the high veers to the east/southeast, low level moisture in the form of clouds will increase from the south/southeast to the north/northwest overnight. These clouds will mainly effect southern and southwestern areas. With some clouds and wind, temperatures will be somewhat non diurnal. Lows will range from the upper 20s north to the mid 30s southwest. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... No sweeping changes were made to the forecast this afternoon. Broad pattern shows return/warming flow setting up on Monday as high pressure moves east of the region. A weakening surface low in the Plains will track towards the Upper Midwest on Monday. Moisture on southerly winds will increase in the Ohio Valley, and the H5 ridge in place will move east in favor of zonal sw flow by Monday night. This zonal flow will permit embedded disturbances to swing northeast through the region and wring out showers overnight and into Tuesday. This will be more noticeable in the northwest and have a lesser chance of occurrence in the southeast. Tuesday will see a cold front approach the region from the northwest, with showers becoming more likely ahead of it given a continued stream of moisture through the lower atmosphere. Currently, models have this front passing east over the region on Wednesday. While the front moves east late in the week, a broad digging upper level trough in the central U.S. will continue to permit disturbances to continue a threat for showers over the area for the remainder of the period, though it should not be by any means a rainy period, just an increased chance. Temperatures will be at or just below climatological normals for the period. They will gradually rise through mid-week, possibly nosing to just above normal on Wednesday, and then drop towards the end of the week. Models diverge significantly beyond Thursday with a corresponding decrease in forecast confidence. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Band of snow that has been affecting CVG/LUK is beginning to weaken as frontogenetic forcing is coming to an end. Conditions are rising to VFR, but for the next few hours there could be a fall back to MVFR cigs and vsbys until the lift completely comes to an end. The H5 s/w and sfc low that have been driving the pcpn will be dropping se and weakening this evening. As this occurs, the pcpn will end. High clouds will linger through about 06Z, before becoming scattered in the nrn tafs. They could last a few hours more in CVG/LUK. As the surface low passes to the south of the region winds will pick up. East-northeast winds of 12-15kt with gusts to 25kt gusts. The winds will linger into the day on Sunday. As H5 ridge builds on Saturday, some cirrus is expected to affect the tafs. After 00Z Monday, models are showing some return moisture at H8 which would bring in a broken 4-5kft ceiling. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible Monday and Tuesday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for OHZ070-078-079-081-088. Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for OHZ077. KY...Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>100. IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for INZ058-059. Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for INZ066- 073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman/Sites NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...Sites is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.