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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 092358
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
658 PM EST Sun Dec 9 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will build into the region early this
week. This will lead to dry conditions and a gradual return to
more normal like temperatures through Tuesday. A chance of
precipitation will return through mid to late week as a  series
of weather disturbances affect the Ohio Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Will hang on to some lower end pops across our far southeast
through late afternoon to account for any lingering light
rain/snow showers. Otherwise, cirrus across our area should
continue to thin out as we head into tonight and surface high
pressure builds east into the region. The 12Z NAM is
considerably more moist in the low levels compared to the GFS
and ECMWF for later tonight. We do seem to be fairly dry at the
moment so would tend to think the NAM is overdone. However, it
is tough to totally discount the NAM so will hedge a little and
have at least some partly cloudy conditions across the north
late tonight. If the NAM does end up being right, we could also
have some fog issues across the north late, but will hold off on
introducing that at this point. Overnight lows will generally
be in the 15 to 20 degree range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will shift slowly south across the Ohio
River Valley Monday into Monday night. The NAM is still hanging
onto a good deal of low level moisture through much of the short
term period. Again, thinking that this is overdone so will
continue with mainly clear skies for Monday afternoon into
Monday night. With a cool airmass still in place across the
region, highs on Monday will range from the lower 30s in the
north to the upper 30s across the south. Lows Monday night will
be in the upper teens to lower 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Look for dry weather Tuesday with high pressure centered to the
southwest and short wave energy confined to the north. Wednesday
should be dry to start before moisture increases ahead of a closed
upper low, producing a chance of rain and snow showers from late
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.

For Thursday night and Friday, potent low pressure to the south
coming in phase with a northern stream trough will bring widespread
rain showers, with snow possibly mixing in across northern counties.
Showers may linger into Saturday until high pressure and a dry
airmass arrive on Sunday.

Temperatures are forecast to start slightly below normal Tuesday
with highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s expected. After near normal
reading around 40 are attained on Wednesday, above normal highs in
the 40s are indicated for Thursday through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Northwest flow aloft with a surface ridge of high pressure
building into the area overnight. High level clouds associated
with the departing system to our south will continue to thin
out this evening.

Low clouds over the Great Lakes to track south...perhaps
encroaching into ILN/s far northern counties toward sunrise.
NAM solution seems too aggressive with this moisture based on
current location of clouds. Therefore, have followed a solution
closer to GFS/ECMWF, allowing clouds and lower vsbys to stay
north of the TAF sites. There still exists uncertainty and this
will have to continue to be monitored overnight with KCMH/KLCK
having the best chance of these IFR conditions.

Light northeast winds will back northwest on Monday.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...AR