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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 280750
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
350 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
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Slow moving low pressure moves out of the region on Friday.
High pressure and dry air are forecast to return for the
weekend and is expected to continue through much of next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Early this morning, repeated rounds of thunderstorms continue to
impact north/northeast Kentucky and far southern Ohio. Over the
rest of the area, very little convective activity has occurred
leaving the southern portions of our area the big "winners" with
regards to rainfall the last couple of days. There are pockets
of lower visibility this morning, however, it is rather sporadic
due to the influence of overnight clouds and thunderstorms.

The upper level low has basically stalled over the tri-state
(MI, IN, OH) with a relatively moist atmosphere in place over
the area today. This will support additional shower development
later this morning and afternoon even after the early morning
activity decreases across the south. The weakening upper level
low and lack of stronger jet dynamics likely results in rather
tame showers/tstorm development this afternoon. Have highlighted
the highest PoPs across eastern zones (east of I-75), but can`t
rule out some slow moving showers closer to the apex of the
850mb inverted trough along and west of I-75.

Shower activity increases and shifts east into the evening hours
with the attention shifting to the potential for a rather potent
fog/dense fog event begin in the late evening hours and last
well through the Friday morning commute. In fact, confidence may
become high enough during the evening to allow for a predictive
dense fog advisory in advance of the worst conditions. Either
way, much of the area is likely to see fog, with a vast majority
seeing dense fog. Weak flow will struggle to clear fog through
mid-morning so while school delays are likely, school closings
are also probable in some areas.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As mentioned above, fog will be slow to clear with the
potential for impacts up until the noon hour. Eventually, solar
radiation will trigger enough turbulent mixing to break up the
fog.

The shortwave trough and upper level finally shift east of the
region Friday afternoon, with mid-level height rises continuing
through the evening and into the overnight. Shower activity may
be gone, but lingering low level moisture will present another
opportunity for fog into Saturday morning.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Amplified longwave pattern becomes well established this
weekend with the 500 mb ridge axis over the region into early
next week. This pattern will provide abundant sunshine and a
gradual warming trend as high temperature return to the lower
80s. As the ridge shifts east into midweek, low level wind
support the potential for high temperatures climbing into the
mid 80s Tuesday and Wednesday.

On Wednesday, the longwave trough over the western CONUS will be
reinforced by the next shortwave. This will allow the trough
(and next chance for rain) to potentially reach the Ohio Valley
and Great Lakes regions by Thursday or Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As mentioned in previous forecasts, the current weather
situation across the area is difficult. Expect updates
throughout the night as necessary.

At this time, dense fog and LIFR CIGs are streaming
northwestward toward ILN and DAY from the lower Scioto Valley.
Shower and thunderstorm activity also continues across the area,
avoiding the majority of area TAF sites. Will continue to
monitor trends and adjust as necessary, but for now, have
excluded thunder mention for everyone but CVG/LUK. Meanwhile,
MVFR CIGs did not persist after initially developing in the
CMH/LCK area. Given the overall setup, still have fairly high
confidence of CIGs decreasing to at least IFR at most locations
with LIFR currently advertised for ILN/DAY.

CIGs are slow to improve between 12-16Z, but do eventually
expect some scattering of clouds to MVFR or VFR. This break from
the restrictions doesn`t last long as another round of IFR/LIFR
VIS and CIGs are becoming more likely beyond 03Z Friday. These
will be mentioned in the upcoming 12Z TAFs.

Winds circulating counterclockwise around the low will be out of
the east/southeast tonight before becoming more southerly/
southwesterly as the low approaches. Winds should remain under
10 knots through the period.


OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions likely Thursday night into Friday
morning.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...McGinnis
SHORT TERM...McGinnis
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...McGinnis