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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 290505
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
105 AM EDT Mon May 29 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A large upper level low will pass to the southeast of the area
through Monday. High pressure will then become prevalent through
the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Not too many changes made to the ongoing fcst this evening as
patches of mid/high level clouds at multiple levels continue to
pivot around the broader-scale low centered off to the SE of the
OH Vly. Skies will vary from partly to mostly cloudy through the
near term period, with temps dipping into the mid/upper 50s by
daybreak.

Any pcpn chances will be fairly slim outside the far SE,
with the best coverage focused primarily across NE KY and the
lower Scioto Valley. Additional rainfall in these areas will be
on the order of several hundredths to a tenth of an inch or so.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
On Monday, the low will continue to the east toward the North
Carolina coast. Some wrap around showers will be possible across
our southeast zones, but this threat should be decreasing as we
head into the afternoon. Highs will range from the mid 70s far
southeast to the lower 80s elsewhere.

For Monday night, as the low continues to drift east off the
mid Atlantic coast, high pressure will build into the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley. Clouds will decrease overnight. Lows will
fall into the 55 to 60 degree range.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Still some resemblance of a Rex blocking pattern on Tuesday,
with the primary upper low now just off the coast of North
Carolina. This will allow for the surface high to our north to
be the primary weather driver across the Ohio Valley. Most of
the fa should remain dry Tuesday, but a pop-up shower/storm
still cannot be completely ruled out, especially towards
southern OH.

Winds aloft begin to weaken as we progress through the work
week. The H5 ridge still persists over much of the eastern CONUS
through the work week, but the shape/orientation becomes
modified with the weaker wind flow. In this flow regime, the ILN
fa will be in a warming trend, with highs back into the middle
80s by Wednesday, approaching the 90 degree mark by the end of
the work week. Still some uncertainty with regards to PoPs, but
it does still appear that diurnally driven pcpn remains a
possibility for most days in the extended forecast period.

Long range solutions suggest that there will be a cold frontal
passage around the Friday night to Saturday timeframe. This will
likely provide higher PoPs, but still quite a bit of
uncertainty into timing and evolution of this fropa.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Scattered
high and mid level clouds will remain in place over the area
through the next 24 hours, with some breaks and clearing from
time to time as well.

This afternoon, some showers are expected, mainly south and east
of the TAF sites. On the unlikely chance that a shower moves
closer to the TAF sites, the showers would likely be very light,
with negligible impacts.

Winds through the period will generally be out of the ENE at
about 10 knots or less.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...KC/Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...Hatzos