-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
952
FXUS61 KILN 122324
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
724 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are possible through Sunday, particularly
in the afternoon and evening before drier conditions returns for the
start of the workweek. Warm temperatures drop closer to normal on
Sunday and Monday, with warmer and more humid air returning by
midweek. Several rounds of showers and storms will be possible
midweek and beyond with a return to a more active pattern.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A lead mid level shortwave lifts northeast from the mid MS Valley
into the Great Lakes today getting absorbed into a larger/deeper
trough digging southeast into the Great Lakes. The Ohio Valley is in
a warm southwesterly flow which supports hot and humid conditions
with increasing instability to support storms this afternoon into
this evening.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed in the unstable
airmass where SBCAPE values of 2000-2500 J/KG exist. With initial
shortwave pivoting into the Great Lakes - better wind flow will
remain north of the area. Deep-layer shear will be weak, with
effective shear around 15 kts, so storm organization should be
limited. DCAPE values of 1000-1200 J/kg suggest that gusty to
damaging winds will be possible due to downburst/outflow with the
strongest storms thru early evening. Locally heavy rain and isolated
flooding is also possible due to PWat values around 125% of seasonal
normal.

Regarding coverage - initial scattered activity will push off to the
east before another area of storms moves into the west late day into
this evening and weaken as they track east due to loss of heating.

Can not rule out isolated lingering showers or even a thunderstorm
into the overnight hours with surface front moving into the area
toward sunrise.

Warm and muggy conditions will continue tonight with lows in the
in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A southwest flow aloft continues over the area until mid level
trof axis pivots thru the Great Lakes Sunday night. Slow moving front
slips into the area Sunday and stalls out and washes out Sunday
night. Although forcing is weak expect some isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop, with the best coverage
southeast of I-71 where the best instby will develop in the 1000-1500
J/KG range. Highs to top out in the mid and upper 80s.

Have mainly a dry forecast Sunday night but confidence is rather low
with some members producing pcpn ahead of an embedded shortwave trof
axis. Lows are expected in the mid and upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weak high pressure pushes southeast into the middle Ohio Valley on
Monday and will drift a bit to the east on Tuesday. With the old cold
front to our south, most of the precipitation should stay in that
direction, with only a slight chance due to spatial differences in
the models. This sporadic convection continues Tuesday afternoon as
moisture begins to return on the back side of the surface high.

Mid-level heights will increase Wednesday in response to an
approaching shortwave across the upper Midwest into the upper Great
Lakes. Even so, there could be disturbances ejecting ahead of the
wave. In the hot and humid boundary layer, expecting an increase in
showers and storms both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon.

A cold front will arrive into the lower Great Lakes or Ohio Valley
Friday, so storm chances will continue this day. As the front sags
south, we could keep a chance for storms southeast of I-71 into
Saturday. Temperatures will generally be above normal through the
extended period with perhaps slightly cooler conditions by week`s
end if the cold front clears our area.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Scattered thunderstorms developed this aftn in the warm and unstable
airmass ahead of cold front. A few of the stronger storms have
produced strong winds. An axis of moderate instability was continuing
to support an axis of thunderstorms along the I-corridor. Overall
weakening trend observed and will continue with this activity
decreasing  with the loss of heating as it pushes east across the
TAF sites early this evening. Can not rule out an isold shower or
thunderstorm thru the overnight hours with the front moving into the
area late and washing out.

VFR conditions drop to MVFR past 06z through daybreak Sunday before
lifting/scattering once again by 15z. Some MVFR VSBYs in fog cannot
be ruled out tonight. Additional shower and thunderstorm development
possible Sunday with the best coverage over the east. Have limited
any mention to prob30 at KCMH/KLCK. There is a signal for fog
development Sunday night but with expected clouds forecast have
omitted the mention at 30 hour KCVG TAF thru 06Z at this time.

Southwest winds around 10kts decrease this evening and veer to the
west by daybreak Sunday. West winds at less than 10 kts expected
Sunday.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR