Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 161522 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1122 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A series of upper level disturbances will push east across the region through mid week. These will combine with a lingering surface boundary over the Ohio Valley to result in occasional showers and thunderstorms for the next several days. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Quick AFD this morning with the busy weather. Cluster of thunderstorms moving through the Cinci Tri-State this morning should continue to work east. Kept the Flash Flood Watch going from Ripley Co over to Brown (including Boone, Kenton and Campbell KY counties) until 4 PM to cover this threat. Elsewhere dropped the watch. As for the rest of the day, instability increases as temperatures increase along with dewpoints. Developed PoPs over the area during the afternoon in response. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Broad southwest low level flow will persist across the region tonight into Monday. The low level jet will be more muted tonight though so this will likely help keep showers and storms more scattered overnight. Additional mid level energy will push east across the region through the day on Monday. This coupled with the lingering boundary and a possible surface wave riding east along it, will lead to a continued chance of showers and storms through the day. Highs on Monday will range from the mid 70s north to around 80 degrees across the far south. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The active pattern will continue through much of the work week as we remain in zonal flow aloft. Numerous rounds of mid level energy/embedded short waves will ride east across the region through as least Thursday. Thus will continue with fairly high pops through mid week. There are some hints of some weak ridging pushing quickly east across the area on Friday so will just hang on to some slight chance pops then, before another short wave brings some better chances of pcpn for the weekend. High temperatures will generally be in the middle 70s to lower 80s through the long term period. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A convective complex will push east across the region through mid morning but should gradually weaken as it does. Will allow for a few hours of prevailing shra and at least a VCTS to start off the TAF period. Beyond that, models are suggesting a lull in pcpn from late morning into mid to late afternoon. As we destabilize through mid to late afternoon, suppose a few isolated showers or storms will be possible. As we get into tonight and the low level jet starts to strengthen, coverage may become a little better during the overnight hours. Some MVFR cigs this morning should lift into VFR through the afternoon hours. Will then continue with VFR conditions through the remainder of the period, although some lower cigs/vsbys will be possible with any of the storms. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible through Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flash Flood Watch until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for OHZ077>079. KY...Flash Flood Watch until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for KYZ091>093. IN...Flash Flood Watch until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for INZ073>075- 080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...JGL

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