Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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027 FXUS61 KILN 260739 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 339 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure building across the Great Lakes will keep dry weather conditions over the area today. A weak cold front may bring some showers on Friday. Showers will be possible Saturday, before drier weather returns to the area for Sunday through Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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A upper level low will be pushing east across Arkansas today and then towards Georgia by this afternoon. The upper level low will remain south of the area with the main impacts being cirrus overspreading the area. A very weak gradient across the area today will also keep winds light with high temperatures in the low to mid 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
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Thursday night into Friday the upper level low and corresponding surface low will pull northeast out of North Carolina staying southeast of Ohio. Clouds will thicken and lower though (esp. south of the Ohio river) allowing low temperatures to only fall into the upper 40s across the southeast. During the day Friday the next upper level shortwave will dive south out of Ontario. This will allow a cold front to push through the area Friday afternoon. PWATs ahead of the front pool to around 0.70" (GFS is slightly more robust with moisture than the NAM) with upper level support being weak (little PVA and immediately under the trough axis). Looking at both NAM and GFS forecast soundings do reveal instability forming ahead of the front across our eastern counties. There is dry air above 500 mb in the soundings, so dry air entrainment will definitely be in play to limit development. Either way, have nudged PoPs up across the east to chance given the forecast soundings.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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An upper level low pressure system will drift east across the Great Lakes and over toward New England through the weekend. A series of embedded short waves will rotate around the low Friday night into Saturday, leading to a chance of showers, especially across northern/eastern portions of our area. It will also lead to a secondary shot of CAA as we head into the weekend with 850 mb temperatures dropping down into the -2 to -4 degree Celsius range through the day on Saturday. As a result, expect highs on Saturday only ranging from the low 50s in the north to the mid to possibly upper 50s across our south. Surface high pressure will begin to build in from the west Saturday night into Sunday, leading to dry conditions heading into early next week. However, an unseasonable cool airmass will remain in place across the region through the weekend. Lows Saturday night will fall into the low to mid 30s, leading to the possibility of fairly widespread frost. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid to upper 50s. The ridge will build to our southeast through mid week and as it does, we will begin to see increasing southwesterly flow across our area. This will lead to developing WAA and a warmup through the remainder of the long term period. Highs on Monday will be in the mid to upper 60s, with highs Tuesday and Wednesday well into the 70s. There remain some model differences with just how fast the high will begin to be suppressed off to the southeast by mid to late week and as a result, just how fast the trough over the central United States works east toward our area. However, it does look like it may be fast enough to at least warrant some lower chance pops for thunderstorms by Wednesday.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... All TAF sites are VFR this morning with surface analysis revealing extremely weak flow. The next upper level disturbance is currently over the Oklahoma/ Arkansas border with a widespread cirrus canopy across the south. The main concern with the forecast will be the potential for some reduced visibilities across the area. The widespread cirrus across the south will likely hinder fog development, with the weak flow helping to aid in fog development. Surface analyses reveals a weak trough axis across central Ohio and this is what high res models appear to be focusing on. The tempo group at KILN and KLCK seem like a great way to go and have kept them going. Think KCVG/ KLUK/ KCMH will all be a tad to displaced from the trough axis to see much in the way of visibility restrictions. High clouds will continue across the south today, but VFR conditions will prevail. Light east winds will back more northerly by the end of the taf issuance, but will be very light (perhaps light and variable at times). OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible Saturday morning. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Haines SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Haines

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