Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 231718 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 118 PM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move east of the area today, as conditions begin to warm. Though dry conditions are expected for most locations today and tomorrow, chances of storms will return to the forecast on Friday and into the weekend, with a warm and humid weather pattern expected. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Radar imagery at 1330z shows weak echoes returning NW of our CWA. Based on the latest CAMs and obs trends, decided to keep the messaging the same for today with the potential for a few sprinkles in the forecast today for our northwestern counties. There is a low chance that measurable precipitation will be produced from these sprinkles, as much of this rain is being produced by mid-level clouds (8000-10000 ft AGL) and falling through drier air near the surface. Nonetheless, cloud coverage will remain much thicker for counties west of I-71 today, with nearly overcast conditions at times for portions of west-central OH into eastern IN. Might be able to observe some virga across these counties as well. The surface high pressure system will continue to slide eastward today and head towards the Atlantic coast. Return flow on the backside of the high will usher in slightly warmer and more humid air into the Ohio Valley compared to yesterday. However, won`t feel too much of a change in humidity levels outdoors as dewpoints still hang around the upper 40s to lower 50s, while high temperatures climb back into the middle to upper 70s today. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... As the 700mb wave moves away, the middle Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes will largely be in an area of nil forcing and little in the way of cloud cover. Conditions tonight will not be as calm as this current morning, so min temps will be a little warmer, but middle to upper 50s will still be a bit below normal. Dry conditions should persist on Thursday as well, though the southerly flow pattern (at least through about 850mb) will be a little more pronounced, leading to increasing warmth and moisture. This is just the start of a trend that will continue into the weekend. However, with a 500mb high over the lower Mississippi Valley, the downstream mid-level pattern over the Ohio Valley will be somewhat weak and ill defined. A sizable jump in max temps is expected (mid 80s) but with no chance for precipitation owing to the lack of forcing. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Upper level ridging over the Eastern Seaboard will keep the upper level trough over the central CONUS from making much of an eastward push through the weekend and into early next week. This will keep much of the Ohio Valley region positioned in a warm and moist southwesterly flow pattern through the long term period. Better forcing and moisture will initially be centered off to our west/northwest, but this will make a gradual push eastward as we head into early next week and the trough axis and some embedded short wave energy begins to push slowly eastward, closer to our area. This will lead to a gradual increase in chances for showers and thunderstorms for Friday into Saturday, especially across northwest portions of our area. The better chances for pcpn will then shift slowly east across the remainder of our area through the first part of the upcoming week. With PWs pushing up into the 1.75 to 2 inch range across our northwest Friday into Saturday and then eventually possibly shifting east across much of the rest of our area through the remainder of the period, the possibility for locally heavy rainfall and possible flooding concerns will need to be monitored as we progress through the long term period. High temperatures will be mainly in the 80s each day. In the warm and humid airmass, there may be some diurnal enhancement to the pcpn chances each day. && .AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Prevailing VFR conditions are forecast through the taf period. Winds will primarily remain out of the southeast this afternoon, at or below 10 kts. Cloud coverage will thin out through the evening, leaving mainly clear skies across the area tonight. Winds will weaken below 5 kts this evening before increasing Thursday morning and veering towards the south-southwest. Sustained winds will eventually increase to 10-15 kts on Thursday, with gusts up to 20-25 kts possible later in the afternoon. SCT cu development also likely by the late morning hours on Thursday across all taf sites. .OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hatzos NEAR TERM...Clark SHORT TERM...Hatzos LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Clark

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