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000
FXUS61 KILN 290823
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
423 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the area early this morning. In
the wake of the front, it will become windy today. Then much
cooler air will filter into the area with below normal
temperatures Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Cold front tracking across Indiana will push through the forecast
area by 9 am. There may still be a few showers out ahead of
this boundary, but any additional rainfall will be spotty and
light. Skies will clear after the front moves through, but
stratocumulus will spread across the area with the most extensive
cloud cover across northwest counties. More importantly, winds
will increase substantially in the wake of the cold front,
initially with the surge of cold air advection and the later a
tightening pressure gradient. Have continued with the wind
advisory across all counties except those along and south of the
Ohio River. Sunshine will counteract the cold air advection for
much of the area today to the point where readings will be
nearly steady after frontal passage. The exception will be in
the northwest where more extensive cloud cover is forecast and
then readings will drop a bit there.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Winds will slowly diminish this evening, although not completely
subside as the pressure gradient remains relatively strong.
Gradient relaxes a bit on Monday but mixing will result in gusty
winds, however not nearly as strong as what will occur today.
Stratocumulus will decrease tonight. But a short wave passing
across the Great Lakes on Monday will bring an increase in
clouds again for all but far southern counties. Lows will drop
into the 40s areawide tonight. Where clouds are more extensive
in the north on Monday, temperatures will struggle with only a 3
to 7 degree diurnal rise. Where there is more insolation in the
south, temperatures will be able to get into the upper 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Long term period begins with a surface high pressure ridge extending
southeast into the region from the upper Mississippi Valley. It
looks like the clouds will linger overnight.

A fast moving H5 s/w will swing out of the southern plains into the
Tennessee Valley. The northern edge of the pcpn shield will work
into the southern sections of the fa Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening. Highs on Tuesday will only be 45 to 50 degrees.

The s/w pushes off into the Appalachians Tuesday night. This allows
the surface ridge to build back into the region. However models
continue to linger clouds across the region into Wednesday. As the
ridge axis works into the fa Wednesday night the clouds finally
start to scatter.

With a H5 ridge building over the Ohio Valley Thursday, 00Z models
have dried out the region. Highs on Thursday will be around normal
ranging between 55 and 60 degrees.

Extended models diverge Friday into the weekend with the timing of a
upper level s/w and cold front moving through the northern plains.
The 12Z ECMWF is the quickest with the system pushing pcpn into the
area Friday night. The GFS and CMC are slower waiting until the
weekend to bring the system in. Went with slight chance PoPs for the
last few days of the extended due to the uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front will move across the terminals between 10Z and 13Z.
Cannot rule out a few showers or thunderstorms out ahead of this
but at this point any precipitation looks pretty spotty. There
are some MVFR ceilings out ahead of the front, so may well see
that briefly impact the TAFs. Winds will become southwest and
increase substantially after the front passes. Strong gusty
winds will continue through the day and gradually subside around
or after 00Z. Some stratocumulus will occur during the day but
expect any ceilings to be VFR.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible Tuesday into Tuesday
night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-080.
KY...None.
IN...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for INZ050-058-059-066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Sites
AVIATION...