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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
027
FXUS61 KILN 260739
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
339 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure building across the Great Lakes will keep dry
weather conditions over the area today. A weak cold front may
bring some showers on Friday. Showers will be possible Saturday,
before drier weather returns to the area for Sunday through
Tuesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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A upper level low will be pushing east across Arkansas today and
then towards Georgia by this afternoon. The upper level low will
remain south of the area with the main impacts being cirrus
overspreading the area. A very weak gradient across the area
today will also keep winds light with high temperatures in the
low to mid 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
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Thursday night into Friday the upper level low and corresponding
surface low will pull northeast out of North Carolina staying
southeast of Ohio. Clouds will thicken and lower though (esp.
south of the Ohio river) allowing low temperatures to only fall
into the upper 40s across the southeast. During the day Friday
the next upper level shortwave will dive south out of Ontario.
This will allow a cold front to push through the area Friday
afternoon. PWATs ahead of the front pool to around 0.70" (GFS is
slightly more robust with moisture than the NAM) with upper
level support being weak (little PVA and immediately under the
trough axis). Looking at both NAM and GFS forecast soundings do
reveal instability forming ahead of the front across our eastern
counties. There is dry air above 500 mb in the soundings, so dry
air entrainment will definitely be in play to limit
development. Either way, have nudged PoPs up across the east to
chance given the forecast soundings.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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An upper level low pressure system will drift east across the Great
Lakes and over toward New England through the weekend. A series of
embedded short waves will rotate around the low Friday night into
Saturday, leading to a chance of showers, especially across
northern/eastern portions of our area. It will also lead to a
secondary shot of CAA as we head into the weekend with 850 mb
temperatures dropping down into the -2 to -4 degree Celsius range
through the day on Saturday. As a result, expect highs on Saturday
only ranging from the low 50s in the north to the mid to possibly
upper 50s across our south.

Surface high pressure will begin to build in from the west Saturday
night into Sunday, leading to dry conditions heading into early next
week. However, an unseasonable cool airmass will remain in place
across the region through the weekend. Lows Saturday night will fall
into the low to mid 30s, leading to the possibility of fairly
widespread frost. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid to upper 50s.

The ridge will build to our southeast through mid week and as it
does, we will begin to see increasing southwesterly flow across our
area. This will lead to developing WAA and a warmup through the
remainder of the long term period. Highs on Monday will be in the
mid to upper 60s, with highs Tuesday and Wednesday well into the
70s. There remain some model differences with just how fast the high
will begin to be suppressed off to the southeast by mid to late week
and as a result, just how fast the trough over the central United
States works east toward our area. However, it does look like it may
be fast enough to at least warrant some lower chance pops for
thunderstorms by Wednesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
All TAF sites are VFR this morning with surface analysis
revealing extremely weak flow. The next upper level disturbance
is currently over the Oklahoma/ Arkansas border with a
widespread cirrus canopy across the south. The main concern with
the forecast will be the potential for some reduced visibilities
across the area. The widespread cirrus across the south will
likely hinder fog development, with the weak flow helping to aid
in fog development. Surface analyses reveals a weak trough axis
across central Ohio and this is what high res models appear to
be focusing on. The tempo group at KILN and KLCK seem like a
great way to go and have kept them going. Think KCVG/ KLUK/ KCMH
will all be a tad to displaced from the trough axis to see much
in the way of visibility restrictions.

High clouds will continue across the south today, but VFR
conditions will prevail. Light east winds will back more
northerly by the end of the taf issuance, but will be very light
(perhaps light and variable at times).

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible Saturday morning.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haines
NEAR TERM...Haines
SHORT TERM...Haines
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Haines