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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 250533
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
133 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will move east across the Ohio Valley
tonight through Monday, bringing occasional showers to the
region. A cooler airmass will settle into the area behind the
system Monday night and Tuesday. However, temperatures will
moderate through mid to late week as high pressure builds back
across the Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Isentropic forced rain has shifted east this evening leaving
ILN/s FA in a temporary lull.

Weakening sfc low and mid level s/w will drop southeast from the
Mid MS Vly into the lower Ohio Valley overnight and into the TN
Valley Monday. An axis of favorable low level convergence will
develop across ILN/s southern FA overnight ahead of this feature.
Will allow pops to ramp back up to categorical across the south
in response to this forcing. Convection over southwest Indiana
will weaken as pcpn moves toward ILN/s FA. While a few rumbles
of thunder over the far southwest are psbl...with minimal instby
at best will continue to omit the mention of thunder.

As pressure gradient increases acrs the area (north of the
low)...cooler air will advect in from the north overnight with
lows ranging from the mid 30s in the north to the upper 40s in
the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
The surface low will continue to push off to the east southeast
and weaken through Monday morning. Some rain showers will
likely linger through the morning hours, particularly across
our south. It should then taper off from the west through the
afternoon hours. Highs on Monday will be on the cool side for
this time of year, with highs in the 40s. Surface high pressure
will begin to build down from the north Monday night with skies
becoming mostly clear. Lows Monday night will be in the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
To start the period, a very large area of surface high pressure will
be forming under the confluent upper flow on the eastern periphery
of a broad upper ridge. This will bring dry weather Tuesday and
Wednesday as the area experiences sunny days and clear nights in
the dry airmass and subsidence surrounding the massive anticyclone.

A gradual breakdown of the surface and upper high should be observed
on Thursday when geopotential heights may show a slight decrease in
response to short wave energy in Southern Canada, while a surface
frontal boundary develops to the northwest. Showers are forecast to
enter the picture Thursday night as moisture advection increases
along the front. The risk for showers will continue to increase
through Friday, before showers become likely on Saturday ahead of
surface low pressure forming in advance of a deepening upper trough.
Shower chances diminish Sunday beneath a closed upper low, and a few
wet snowflakes may briefly mix in at northern locations on Sunday
morning.

Temperatures are expected to exhibit a warming trend Tuesday through
Thursday, with highs rising from the 40s Tuesday to the 50s
Wednesday, then into the 60s Thursday and Friday. A retreat back to
the 40s and 50s is expected by Sunday due to cold advection on a
northerly flow.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The main concern for the TAFs is the area of rain moving into
the region as of now. This rain contains some embedded moderate
to heavy rain, which may bring visibilities to MVFR or even IFR
levels. In addition, there is a chance of thunder at the
Cincinnati TAF sites over the next hour or two. It is less
certain if thunder will be able to make it to the other
airports.

Ceilings are expected to generally be in the MVFR category,
though with some variations -- possibly to VFR, and possibly to
IFR. The most likely chance for IFR ceilings will be at the
Cincinnati airports between 12Z-16Z, and this may need to be
added into the TAF if confidence increases.

Rain is expected to come to an end at the TAF sites during the
late morning / early afternoon. Winds from the northeast will
increase, with gusts into the 20-25 knot range. There should
also be a fairly quick transition to clear skies and VFR
conditions.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are possible on Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Hatzos