Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 081934 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 334 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will push slowly southeast across the region through the weekend, leading to dry conditions and a gradual warming trend. A chance of showers and thunderstorms will return for the first part of the work week as a cold front approaches from the northwest. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... High pressure over the region this afternoon will move slowly east into the Appalachians tonight. Deck of cumulus clouds over the eastern counties should begin to dissipate during the late afternoon or early evening hours. This should leave just some high clouds for much of the overnight. Low temperatures tonight will creep up a little from the past few days, ranging between 60 and 65 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... On Sunday a H5 s/w ridge builds back over the region. This should provide enough subsidence to keep the region dry. Cumulus coverage should be lower as we lose some of the H8 moisture. Highs for Sunday will warm to a few degrees above normal, ranging from between 85-90 degrees. For Sunday night, there is good agreement amongst the models in dropping a H5 s/w from Missouri down into western Kentucky Sunday. The features kicks off a cluster of thunderstorms. The NAM and the Canadian bring the convection through central Kentucky Sunday night, brushing the nrn Kentucky counties by late Sunday night. Carried slight chance PoPs. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Weak flow aloft will permit upper level energy to track eastward and possibly spark some shower and thunderstorm activity in the afternoon and overnight. The better chance of storms will reside on Tuesday and Wednesday as the southwest flow brings in dewpoints around 70 and an approaching stronger shortwave becomes apparent on Wednesday. European is supporting an earlier shortwave getting stalled over the CWA by a deepening cutoff low that is over central IL by early Saturday. GFS is drier in-between these systems as it allows the earlier one to move east and high pressure briefly gives a break between rain events Thurs night through Fri night. Adding the Canadian model to try to mediate between the other solutions just adds another layer of uncertainty. Some chance of thunderstorms will have to reside in the whole of the extended forecast, maximized in the southwest on Tues and Wed. Surface pattern is just as mixed of a result and this is apparent after a warm start Mon through Tues night evolving to forecast just above climo. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s from Wed onward and lows will be in the upper 60s to around 70, both of which are about 5-8 deg above seasonal norms. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure over the region today will slip gradually east into the Appalachians overnight. VFR cumulus has developed and is mainly se of I-71 corridor. There are some broken ceilings within this cu field. Cu will dissipate by sunset, leaving just some high clouds overnight. With light winds tonight. river valley fog will be possible. Included MVFR fog at LUK from 07-12Z and IFR fog between 09-11Z. Fog will burn off shortly after 12Z. Scattered cu development is then forecast for Sunday afternoon. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Monday through Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...Sites

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