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000
FXUS61 KILN 081934
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
334 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will push slowly southeast across the region
through the weekend, leading to dry conditions and a gradual
warming trend. A chance of showers and thunderstorms will return
for the first part of the work week as a cold front approaches
from the northwest.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
High pressure over the region this afternoon will move
slowly east into the Appalachians tonight. Deck of cumulus
clouds over the eastern counties should begin to dissipate
during the late afternoon or early evening hours. This should
leave just some high clouds for much of the overnight. Low
temperatures tonight will creep up a little from the past few
days, ranging between 60 and 65 degrees.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
On Sunday a H5 s/w ridge builds back over the region. This should
provide enough subsidence to keep the region dry. Cumulus coverage
should be lower as we lose some of the H8 moisture. Highs for Sunday
will warm to a few degrees above normal, ranging from between 85-90
degrees.

For Sunday night, there is good agreement amongst the models in
dropping a H5 s/w from Missouri down into western Kentucky Sunday.
The features kicks off a cluster of thunderstorms. The NAM and the
Canadian bring the convection through central Kentucky Sunday
night, brushing the nrn Kentucky counties by late Sunday night.
Carried slight chance PoPs.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weak flow aloft will permit upper level energy to track eastward and
possibly spark some shower and thunderstorm activity in the afternoon
and overnight. The better chance of storms will reside on Tuesday and
Wednesday as the southwest flow brings in dewpoints around 70 and an
approaching stronger shortwave becomes apparent on Wednesday. European
is supporting an earlier shortwave getting stalled over the CWA by a
deepening cutoff low that is over central IL by early Saturday. GFS is
drier in-between these systems as it allows the earlier one to move
east and high pressure briefly gives a break between rain events Thurs
night through Fri night. Adding the Canadian model to try to mediate
between the other solutions just adds another layer of uncertainty.

Some chance of thunderstorms will have to reside in the whole of the
extended forecast, maximized in the southwest on Tues and Wed. Surface
pattern is just as mixed of a result and this is apparent after a warm
start Mon through Tues night evolving to forecast just above climo.
Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s from Wed onward and lows will be
in the upper 60s to around 70, both of which are about 5-8 deg above
seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure over the region today will slip gradually east
into the Appalachians overnight. VFR cumulus has developed and
is mainly se of I-71 corridor. There are some broken ceilings
within this cu field. Cu will dissipate by sunset, leaving just
some high clouds overnight.

With light winds tonight. river valley fog will be possible.
Included MVFR fog at LUK from 07-12Z and IFR fog between
09-11Z. Fog will burn off shortly after 12Z. Scattered cu
development is then forecast for Sunday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Monday through
Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...Sites
SHORT TERM...Sites
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...Sites