Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 072059 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 359 PM EST Sun Mar 7 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure will track southeast of the region tonight. Winds will then become southerly and mark a warming trend for the week, culminating in breezy conditions with increased clouds that spread across the area Wed and Thurs. This is in advance of a frontal system that will pass through and bring a good shot of rain late Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Generally clear skies with a few passing cirrus clouds this evening will be found as high pressure settles over the region. This high will move southeast overnight and a return to southerly flow will begin to bring in warmer air versus the past few days of cold advection on northerly flow. Lows will dip into the mid 20s for one more night in the east, but western portions of the CWA will only drop to around 30. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Generally sunny skies will be found again, as high temperatures rise to the 60-65 degree range, warmest in the northwest where slightly stronger winds will bring in warmer air. Winds will lighten overnight, but remain southerly and help keep temperatures from dropping below freezing for the first time this month. Lows will range from the lower 40s in the northwest to the mid and upper 30s in the southeast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The long term period will feature somewhat of a dichotomy of a forecast across the region, with the first several days featuring tranquil weather, warm temperatures and not much (if any) in the way of pcpn while the end of the workweek into this weekend will be much more unsettled and cooler. Broad surface high pressure centered to the southeast of the Ohio Valley will position the region in broad southwesterly flow at the surface, and to a lesser extent, aloft as well. A quick-moving mid/upper level S/W will bring some cloud cover to the area on Tuesday, but no rain is expected. However, it may end up being more partly sunny than mostly sunny as this disturbance moves east through the region during the daytime period. And despite the increased cloud cover Tuesday, still expect highs to reach into the 60s just about everywhere. Recent NBM guidance has been going much too cool on daytime highs, likely influenced at least somewhat by the cooler-than-normal conditions over the past 60-day BC training period. Either way, decided to trend more toward the 75th percentile NBM maxT for both Tuesday and Wednesday, despite the anticipation for some cloud cover on both days. The warmer temps on Wednesday will be aided at least somewhat by the fact that a slightly tighter pressure gradient will be positioned in the Ohio Valley by midweek, with indications for favorable diurnal mixing Wednesday and even again on Thursday. This will be in spite of some moisture advection NE into the region, courtesy of the stiffer southwesterly LL flow that will become established. Will see SW winds of 15-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH Wednesday with highs generally in the mid/upper 60s. If the pcpn can hold off through the daytime on Thursday, the tightened pressure gradient and favorable mixing in the open pre-frontal warm sector would suggest gusts to 35- 40 MPH are possible Thursday late morning/afternoon/early evening. Will begin to highlight this wind potential in the HWO. By Thursday, with expansive mid/upper level ridging centered over the Gulf and a digging mid/upper level low west of the Four Corners region, broad southwesterly flow aloft will become established near/east of the mid-Mississippi River Valley, with the general trof axis stretching from the upper Midwest to California. At the surface, an area of low pressure will race from the upper midwest to north of the Great Lakes, leaving in its wake a trailing cold front which will slowly progress southeast through the region Thursday into Thursday night. High confidence remains in widespread rain impacting the ILN FA Thursday night into Friday morning. Past this juncture, the solutions begin to diverge and the uncertainty in the evolution of the pattern increases rather substantially as we progress into next weekend. The divergence in longer-range model solutions stems from , in part, the difference in the handling of how fast to eject the mid/upper level low over the Four Corners region east into the plains and eventually MS/OH Rvr Valleys. The ECWMF and CMC continue to show solutions suggesting the mid/upper level low cutting off from the main flow, allowing it to meander about the Four Corners region through the weekend. Meanwhile, the GFS brings this feature east much quicker, which would enable the attendant lee-side low to develop faster and would stunt the southward progression of the front through the OH/TN Valleys to a much greater extent. The faster ejection of the mid/upper level low into the central plains would certainly spell a wetter scenario for the Ohio Valley as it would not allow the front to clear the OH Vly for the entire stretch of Thursday night through Sunday night. Meanwhile, the CMC and ECMWF continue to show the ILN FA getting in the post-frontal environment Saturday/Sunday (due to the digging nature of the S/W energy into the interior NE US Saturday) before ultimately rain chances increase again on Monday with the delayed arrival of the "Four Corners" system. With all of this being said, it does seem like there is a subtle trend by the CMC/ECMWF to show a solution slightly more in-line with what the GFS has been showing, which also would indicate a shorter "dry" stretch between the sagging front on Thursday/Friday/Friday night and the system due to arrive Sunday/Sunday night/Monday. Still quite a bit to be ironed out with the evolution of the pattern late week. However, confidence remains high in widespread rain Thursday night into Friday, potentially lingering Friday night closer to the Ohio River as a weak surface impulse translates along the stalling/increasingly zonal-oriented baroclinic zone. Cooler temps will evolve Friday into Saturday with ample clouds, some precipitation, and the potential to be in a post-frontal environment. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions will persist with some cirrus spilling into the region from the west on Monday. Northerly winds under 10kt this afternoon will quickly die down or go calm as they change direction to southerly for Monday. South-southwest winds will see speeds increase in the late morning to over 10kt. OUTLOOK...Wind gusts up to 30 kt possible on Wednesday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible on Thursday and Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...Franks SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...Franks FIRE WEATHER...

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