Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 290505 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 105 AM EDT Mon May 29 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A large upper level low will pass to the southeast of the area through Monday. High pressure will then become prevalent through the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Not too many changes made to the ongoing fcst this evening as patches of mid/high level clouds at multiple levels continue to pivot around the broader-scale low centered off to the SE of the OH Vly. Skies will vary from partly to mostly cloudy through the near term period, with temps dipping into the mid/upper 50s by daybreak. Any pcpn chances will be fairly slim outside the far SE, with the best coverage focused primarily across NE KY and the lower Scioto Valley. Additional rainfall in these areas will be on the order of several hundredths to a tenth of an inch or so. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... On Monday, the low will continue to the east toward the North Carolina coast. Some wrap around showers will be possible across our southeast zones, but this threat should be decreasing as we head into the afternoon. Highs will range from the mid 70s far southeast to the lower 80s elsewhere. For Monday night, as the low continues to drift east off the mid Atlantic coast, high pressure will build into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Clouds will decrease overnight. Lows will fall into the 55 to 60 degree range. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Still some resemblance of a Rex blocking pattern on Tuesday, with the primary upper low now just off the coast of North Carolina. This will allow for the surface high to our north to be the primary weather driver across the Ohio Valley. Most of the fa should remain dry Tuesday, but a pop-up shower/storm still cannot be completely ruled out, especially towards southern OH. Winds aloft begin to weaken as we progress through the work week. The H5 ridge still persists over much of the eastern CONUS through the work week, but the shape/orientation becomes modified with the weaker wind flow. In this flow regime, the ILN fa will be in a warming trend, with highs back into the middle 80s by Wednesday, approaching the 90 degree mark by the end of the work week. Still some uncertainty with regards to PoPs, but it does still appear that diurnally driven pcpn remains a possibility for most days in the extended forecast period. Long range solutions suggest that there will be a cold frontal passage around the Friday night to Saturday timeframe. This will likely provide higher PoPs, but still quite a bit of uncertainty into timing and evolution of this fropa. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Scattered high and mid level clouds will remain in place over the area through the next 24 hours, with some breaks and clearing from time to time as well. This afternoon, some showers are expected, mainly south and east of the TAF sites. On the unlikely chance that a shower moves closer to the TAF sites, the showers would likely be very light, with negligible impacts. Winds through the period will generally be out of the ENE at about 10 knots or less. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...KC/Hickman SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...Clark AVIATION...Hatzos is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.