Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 250533 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 133 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system will move east across the Ohio Valley tonight through Monday, bringing occasional showers to the region. A cooler airmass will settle into the area behind the system Monday night and Tuesday. However, temperatures will moderate through mid to late week as high pressure builds back across the Great Lakes. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Isentropic forced rain has shifted east this evening leaving ILN/s FA in a temporary lull. Weakening sfc low and mid level s/w will drop southeast from the Mid MS Vly into the lower Ohio Valley overnight and into the TN Valley Monday. An axis of favorable low level convergence will develop across ILN/s southern FA overnight ahead of this feature. Will allow pops to ramp back up to categorical across the south in response to this forcing. Convection over southwest Indiana will weaken as pcpn moves toward ILN/s FA. While a few rumbles of thunder over the far southwest are psbl...with minimal instby at best will continue to omit the mention of thunder. As pressure gradient increases acrs the area (north of the low)...cooler air will advect in from the north overnight with lows ranging from the mid 30s in the north to the upper 40s in the south. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... The surface low will continue to push off to the east southeast and weaken through Monday morning. Some rain showers will likely linger through the morning hours, particularly across our south. It should then taper off from the west through the afternoon hours. Highs on Monday will be on the cool side for this time of year, with highs in the 40s. Surface high pressure will begin to build down from the north Monday night with skies becoming mostly clear. Lows Monday night will be in the 20s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... To start the period, a very large area of surface high pressure will be forming under the confluent upper flow on the eastern periphery of a broad upper ridge. This will bring dry weather Tuesday and Wednesday as the area experiences sunny days and clear nights in the dry airmass and subsidence surrounding the massive anticyclone. A gradual breakdown of the surface and upper high should be observed on Thursday when geopotential heights may show a slight decrease in response to short wave energy in Southern Canada, while a surface frontal boundary develops to the northwest. Showers are forecast to enter the picture Thursday night as moisture advection increases along the front. The risk for showers will continue to increase through Friday, before showers become likely on Saturday ahead of surface low pressure forming in advance of a deepening upper trough. Shower chances diminish Sunday beneath a closed upper low, and a few wet snowflakes may briefly mix in at northern locations on Sunday morning. Temperatures are expected to exhibit a warming trend Tuesday through Thursday, with highs rising from the 40s Tuesday to the 50s Wednesday, then into the 60s Thursday and Friday. A retreat back to the 40s and 50s is expected by Sunday due to cold advection on a northerly flow. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The main concern for the TAFs is the area of rain moving into the region as of now. This rain contains some embedded moderate to heavy rain, which may bring visibilities to MVFR or even IFR levels. In addition, there is a chance of thunder at the Cincinnati TAF sites over the next hour or two. It is less certain if thunder will be able to make it to the other airports. Ceilings are expected to generally be in the MVFR category, though with some variations -- possibly to VFR, and possibly to IFR. The most likely chance for IFR ceilings will be at the Cincinnati airports between 12Z-16Z, and this may need to be added into the TAF if confidence increases. Rain is expected to come to an end at the TAF sites during the late morning / early afternoon. Winds from the northeast will increase, with gusts into the 20-25 knot range. There should also be a fairly quick transition to clear skies and VFR conditions. OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are possible on Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...Hatzos

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