Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 042018 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 318 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will slowly drift southeast across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Tuesday into Tuesday night, leading to chances for showers and a few thunderstorms. Clouds and some showers will then linger into Wednesday behind the front. Temperatures will cool down by Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Skies will start out mostly clear this evening as southerly flow ahead of a slow-moving cold front to our west persists. Clouds will increase/gather late tonight from the southwest as some moist lift occur. Could be a spotty shower develop west. It will be warm with lows ranging from the lower to mid 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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For Tuesday into Tuesday night, a cold front will continue to slowly move southeast across our area. Low level forcing appears weak, and upper support is weak as well. This is showing up in some of the CAMs as scattered convection versus higher coverage. Have lowered PoPs some out of concern that the forcing is much weaker than what previous model runs had been advertising. The best chance will likely be in the afternoon and evening when some diurnal instability will be at play. Highs will range from the mid 60s northwest to the mid 70s southeast. Lows will range from the lower 40s northwest to the mid 50s southeast. On Wednesday, a mid level s/wv and surface low will pass just off to our southeast as they rotate toward the mid Atlantic. For our area, clouds and some linger showers can be expected. It will be much cooler with highs ranging from the upper 40s north to near 60 south.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Dry conditions will start out the long term Wednesday night with a system just exiting the area. With cooler air in place Wednesday night temperatures will drop down into the middle 30s to middle 40s. Temperatures will rebound on Thursday up into the 50s and 60s. The next system will start to move into the region on Friday. There are some slight timing differences, however in general expect precipitation chances to start increasing through the day on Friday, continuing on Saturday, and then exiting on Sunday. Temperatures will be warm on Friday with highs in the 60s across many locations, however as colder air starts to work in on Saturday, lows Saturday night, Sunday night, and Monday night will see some sub-freezing temperatures.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Lower clouds across the region are scattering and slowly rising, returning VFR conditions to the terminals. Southerly flow will continue this afternoon with winds from the south 10 to 15 knots with local gusts between 15 and 20 knots. For tonight, we will remain under a low level southerly flow between high pressure to the east and a slow-moving cold front moving into the central Great Lakes and lower Ohio Valley. Much of the region should remain dry with VFR conditions as precipitation associated with the cold front makes a slow advance to the east/southeast. On Tuesday, the cold front will slowly move into the northwest forecast area during the afternoon. The combination of increasing moisture, weak low and upper level lift, and some diurnal heating will bring an increasing chance for showers, perhaps a few thunderstorms, as we head into the afternoon hours. It looks like more widespread lower conditions will hold off until behind the front, but certainly some MVFR/isolated IFR conditions could occur in a shower/thunderstorm. Winds will remain out of the south/southwest between 10 and 15 with local gusts between 15 and 20 knots. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities likely Tuesday night into Wednesday. Thunderstorms possible Tuesday night. MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities possible Friday into Saturday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...Hickman SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM... AVIATION...Hickman

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