Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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248 FXUS61 KILN 220508 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 108 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will sweep east though the Ohio Valley overnight, bringing showers and gusty winds. Cooler and blustery conditions will occur on Tuesday as strong low pressure persists over Ontario. High pressure over the middle Tennessee Valley will build in on Wednesday, offering dry weather and near seasonable temperatures. Southerly flow will bring warmer temperatures for Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Deep stacked low over the Upper MS Vly to lift into the western Great Lakes overnight. Ahead of this system southwest low level jet was offering moist ascent resulting in a band of showers. This band of showers has shifted east into ILN/s eastern counties. Surface cold front evident on radar mosaic and over Indiana. Additional scattered showers to develop along and ahead of this front as it pushes east across ILN/s FA between 05Z and 10Z. Wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph will be possible -- especially across West Central Ohio. Sharp clearing behind this front, drier air advecting into the region with sfc dewpoints dropping into the lower 40s. Expect lows from the upper 40s west to the mid 50s east. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... As the front exits to the east Tuesday morning, low level moisture exits with it, so likely will see quick decrease in cloud cover. However, H8 moisture returns quickly, especially to the north and west, so cumulus will be present in the late morning through afternoon hours. Tight gradient will lead to a quite blustery day, with gusts reaching 25-30 knots in the CAA once mixing commences. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Period starts with surface high pressure forming under a confluent westerly flow aloft. While the high makes its way across the SE CONUS, the subsident circulation around this large anticyclone will provide dry weather conditions Wednesday through the daylight hours on Thursday. For Thursday night and Friday, a boundary setting up from the Great Lakes to the Mississippi Valley will bring a modest amount of lift and moisture convergence, leading to a low chance of showers. High pressure and a dry airmass are forecast to return Saturday. A low pressure system developing under a potent mid level short wave exhibiting divergence aloft should provide a better chance for showers Sunday into Monday. High temperatures will warm from the low 60s Wednesday to the mid and upper 60s Thursday in warm advection and insolation around the surface high. A retreat down to the 50s is expected Friday and Saturday under cloud cover and decreasing geopotential heights before readings rebound back to the 60s Sunday and Monday due to another round of warm advection ahead of the low. && .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Light showers still occurring over the eastern TAF sites as the cold front slowly moves through eastern Indiana. Observations near the front indicate a brief shift to 250-270 with the frontal passage before shifting back to 200-230 with the mean flow. Ceilings are mainly MVFR but there have been a few temporary improvements for some TAF sites. After the frontal passage, expecting more significant improvements to cloud cover as dry air moves in tonight. Winds will diminish some overnight to around 12 to 15 kts and then gust up to 25 kts on Tuesday as the cold air filters into the region. VFR ceilings around 5000 feet are likely Tuesday aftn, especially across the northern TAF sites. OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible again on Friday with the next cold front. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hogue/AR NEAR TERM...Hogue SHORT TERM...Hogue LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...McGinnis

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