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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 231718
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
118 PM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move east of the area today, as conditions
begin to warm. Though dry conditions are expected for most
locations today and tomorrow, chances of storms will return to
the forecast on Friday and into the weekend, with a warm and
humid weather pattern expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Radar imagery at 1330z shows weak echoes returning NW of our
CWA. Based on the latest CAMs and obs trends, decided to keep
the messaging the same for today with the potential for a few
sprinkles in the forecast today for our northwestern counties.
There is a low chance that measurable precipitation will be
produced from these sprinkles, as much of this rain is being
produced by mid-level clouds (8000-10000 ft AGL) and falling
through drier air near the surface. Nonetheless, cloud coverage
will remain much thicker for counties west of I-71 today, with
nearly overcast conditions at times for portions of west-central
OH into eastern IN. Might be able to observe some virga across
these counties as well.

The surface high pressure system will continue to slide eastward
today and head towards the Atlantic coast. Return flow on the
backside of the high will usher in slightly warmer and more
humid air into the Ohio Valley compared to yesterday. However,
won`t feel too much of a change in humidity levels outdoors as
dewpoints still hang around the upper 40s to lower 50s, while
high temperatures climb back into the middle to upper 70s today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
As the 700mb wave moves away, the middle Ohio Valley and
southern Great Lakes will largely be in an area of nil forcing
and little in the way of cloud cover. Conditions tonight will
not be as calm as this current morning, so min temps will be a
little warmer, but middle to upper 50s will still be a bit below
normal.

Dry conditions should persist on Thursday as well, though the
southerly flow pattern (at least through about 850mb) will be a
little more pronounced, leading to increasing warmth and
moisture. This is just the start of a trend that will continue
into the weekend. However, with a 500mb high over the lower
Mississippi Valley, the downstream mid-level pattern over the
Ohio Valley will be somewhat weak and ill defined. A sizable
jump in max temps is expected (mid 80s) but with no chance for
precipitation owing to the lack of forcing.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper level ridging over the Eastern Seaboard will keep the
upper level trough over the central CONUS from making much of an
eastward push through the weekend and into early next week.
This will keep much of the Ohio Valley region positioned in a
warm and moist southwesterly flow pattern through the long term
period. Better forcing and moisture will initially be centered
off to our west/northwest, but this will make a gradual push
eastward as we head into early next week and the trough axis and
some embedded short wave energy begins to push slowly eastward,
closer to our area. This will lead to a gradual increase in
chances for showers and thunderstorms for Friday into Saturday,
especially across northwest portions of our area. The better
chances for pcpn will then shift slowly east across the
remainder of our area through the first part of the upcoming
week. With PWs pushing up into the 1.75 to 2 inch range across
our northwest Friday into Saturday and then eventually possibly
shifting east across much of the rest of our area through the
remainder of the period, the possibility for locally heavy
rainfall and possible flooding concerns will need to be
monitored as we progress through the long term period. High
temperatures will be mainly in the 80s each day. In the warm and
humid airmass, there may be some diurnal enhancement to the
pcpn chances each day.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Prevailing VFR conditions are forecast through the taf period.
Winds will primarily remain out of the southeast this afternoon,
at or below 10 kts. Cloud coverage will thin out through the
evening, leaving mainly clear skies across the area tonight.
Winds will weaken below 5 kts this evening before increasing
Thursday morning and veering towards the south-southwest.
Sustained winds will eventually increase to 10-15 kts on
Thursday, with gusts up to 20-25 kts possible later in the
afternoon. SCT cu development also likely by the late morning
hours on Thursday across all taf sites.

.OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Friday, Saturday, and
Sunday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hatzos
NEAR TERM...Clark
SHORT TERM...Hatzos
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Clark