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000
FXUS61 KILN 161522
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1122 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of upper level disturbances will push east across the
region through mid week. These will combine with a lingering
surface boundary over the Ohio Valley to result in occasional
showers and thunderstorms for the next several days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Quick AFD this morning with the busy weather. Cluster of
thunderstorms moving through the Cinci Tri-State this morning
should continue to work east. Kept the Flash Flood Watch going
from Ripley Co over to Brown (including Boone, Kenton and
Campbell KY counties) until 4 PM to cover this threat. Elsewhere
dropped the watch.

As for the rest of the day, instability increases as
temperatures increase along with dewpoints. Developed PoPs over
the area during the afternoon in response.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Broad southwest low level flow will persist across the region
tonight into Monday. The low level jet will be more muted
tonight though so this will likely help keep showers and storms
more scattered overnight. Additional mid level energy will push
east across the region through the day on Monday. This coupled
with the lingering boundary and a possible surface wave riding
east along it, will lead to a continued chance of showers and
storms through the day. Highs on Monday will range from the mid
70s north to around 80 degrees across the far south.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The active pattern will continue through much of the work week
as we remain in zonal flow aloft. Numerous rounds of mid level
energy/embedded short waves will ride east across the region
through as least Thursday. Thus will continue with fairly high
pops through mid week. There are some hints of some weak
ridging pushing quickly east across the area on Friday so will
just hang on to some slight chance pops then, before another
short wave brings some better chances of pcpn for the weekend.
High temperatures will generally be in the middle 70s to lower
80s through the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A convective complex will push east across the region through
mid morning but should gradually weaken as it does. Will allow
for a few hours of prevailing shra and at least a VCTS to start
off the TAF period. Beyond that, models are suggesting a lull
in pcpn from late morning into mid to late afternoon. As we
destabilize through mid to late afternoon, suppose a few
isolated showers or storms will be possible. As we get into
tonight and the low level jet starts to strengthen, coverage
may become a little better during the overnight hours. Some MVFR
cigs this morning should lift into VFR through the afternoon
hours. Will then continue with VFR conditions through the
remainder of the period, although some lower cigs/vsbys will be
possible with any of the storms.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible through Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flash Flood Watch until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for OHZ077>079.
KY...Flash Flood Watch until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for KYZ091>093.
IN...Flash Flood Watch until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for INZ073>075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...Sites
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...JGL