Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 190211 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1011 PM EDT Sat Aug 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will slip south of the Ohio River tonight. Quiet weather is expected on Sunday as high pressure wedges into the region. The next cold front will move through the area Monday night and Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. Cooler and drier air will settle in behind the front for the latter part of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Convection has waned this evening with the loss of day time instability. An isolated shower/storm could still occur across our southeast through midnight, but that should be about it as a weak cold front continues south. Much of the area will then see mostly clear skies, except the southeast where stratus may develop. In addition, much of the region will likely develop patchy to areas of fog, especially where rain recently fell and in the typical river valleys. Lows will range from the lower 60s north to the mid/upper 60s south. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Weak surface high pressure will build in from the north with mid/upper level weakness over the Great Lakes. Fog will improve quickly early Sunday. Although there will be weak s/w energy across the north, drier air and surface high pressure should keep the area dry. Expect a good amount of sunshine with scattered cumulus Sunday aftn. Temperatures look to be close to normal with highs Sunday in the lower and middle 80s. Surface high pressure to drift east Sunday night with a warm front developing to our south. Expect mainly clear skies with an increase in high level moisture toward sunrise. Expect Sunday nights lows to range from the lower 60s northeast to the upper 60s southwest. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... At the start of the extended forecast period on Monday morning, a small mid-level ridge will be in place over the Ohio Valley, with surface high pressure departing to the east off the New England coast. A generally-progressive mid-level trough will be moving out of the plains states, heading east across the Ohio Valley through Tuesday. This will represent the greatest chance for precipitation through the rest of the forecast, particularly on Monday night ahead of the initial trough. The timing for the onset of precipitation is a little bit slower in this forecast on Monday afternoon, but otherwise the rest of the forecast has not been changed appreciably for this weather system. The timing change on Monday does allow for a slightly warmer temperature forecast as well, especially where warm advection will be maximized over southern Ohio and northeast Kentucky. Max temps are now expected to range from the lower 80s (NW CWA) to upper 80s (SE CWA). In terms of rain and convective potential, showers and storms may be widespread during the peak of the system on Monday night, with strengthening low-level moisture convergence and another round of high precipitable water values (pushing toward 2 inches). Unfavorable diurnal timing, weak deep-layer shear, and a lack of focused low-level forcing would suggest the threat for heavy rain (which looks decent though not outlandish) is greater than the threat for severe weather (which looks marginal at most). With the surface cold front lagging the initial trough, and some evidence of a weak secondary mid-level trough also showing up on the GFS, PoPs will be held on through Tuesday, with even a slight chance in the far southeastern ILN CWA into Wednesday. The surface front will move through some time Tuesday evening into the overnight hours, bringing cooler temperatures once it does so. From Wednesday night onward through the rest of the week, dry high pressure and broad mid-level ridging will remain in place, providing a fairly quiet forecast -- with temperatures gradually warming from the mid 70s back into the lower 80s by Friday. Any signal for precipitation on Saturday on the back side of the high appears very muted at this point. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A weak cold front will continue to sag south of the Ohio River while a weak ridge of high pressure builds in from the north. Scattered showers/storms should wane this evening with the loss of day time heating and the movement of the front away from our area. Mostly clear skies will follow for the terminals. Patchy to areas of fog will be possible where it rained recently and where rivers are located. Worst conditions are slated for KLUK where some locally dense fog will be possible. Other sites will generally have MVFR visbilities, with some IFR visbilities possible (KILN and KLCK). KDAY may remain without mist/fog overnight. On Sunday, mist/fog will burn off between 12Z and 14Z. Otherwise, surface high pressure will extend into the Ohio Valley. FEW cumulus clouds will likely form after 16Z. Winds will be from the northeast between 5 and 10 knots. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Monday night into Tuesday evening. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman/AR NEAR TERM...Hickman/AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...Hickman

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