Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 240809 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 409 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build across the Great Lakes offering dry weather today into Friday. Moisture will begin to increase mainly south of the Ohio River on Friday, and expand north Saturday and Sunday. This will bring a return to muggy conditions with scattered showers and thunderstorms for the holiday weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Mid level ridge to build into the western Great Lakes today as surface high pressure slides east across the area. Mainly clear skies and light winds will likely lead to some shallow valley fog early this morning. This fog to improve quickly early this morning and in relatively dry airmass only expect some thin high level clouds today. With plenty of sunshine temperatures will warm to highs in the lower 80s and middle 80s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
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Low level flow becomes southerly on the back side of retreating high pressure. This will allow for moisture to begin to increase tonight. Temperatures will not be as cool as this morning with Friday mornings lows from the upper 50s north to the lower 60s south. Moisture increases with boundary layer capes of 1000-1500 j/kg developing over ILN/s far southeast counties over south central Ohio and northeast KY. Some weak 925 mb convergence is evident in the model solutions but overall forcing is weak. Therefore, will continue low chance pops for showers and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon over the southeast. Warm temperatures to continue with Fridays highs in the middle and upper 80s.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Overall pattern indicates continued warm and humid conditions, featuring above normal temperatures, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms part of the time. There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday when instability will rise as mid level short waves interact with an increasingly humid airmass advecting on a southerly flow. Somewhat drier weather will be possible Monday and Tuesday due to high pressure building across the Great Lakes at the surface and aloft, yielding an environment that lacks short wave forcing. Thunderstorms may return Wednesday as lapse rates increase again ahead of an upper trough approaching from the southwest. High temperatures reaching the mid and upper 80s will be over 10 degrees above normal. As we near the end of the month, this persistent warm spell will result in near record warmth for May 2018, with each day of this month staying above 30 year normals.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will build east across the Great Lakes today offering dry weather. In this relatively dry airmass expect to only observe some high level cirrus clouds. Clear skies and light winds may allow river valley fog to result in MVFR vsby restrictions at KLUK toward daybreak. KILN may also see a brief period of MVFR fog prior to sunrise. Otherwise...expect VFR conditions through the day with east winds at less than 10 kts. OUTLOOK...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible Saturday through Monday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...AR

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