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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 220532
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1232 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the mid-Mississippi Valley will slide east
tomorrow into Sunday. This will lead to dry conditions through
the weekend. A deepening upper trough over the plains will eject
a series of disturbances, first on Monday, then again on
Wednesday, increasing the chances for precipitation each day.
Temperatures will be above normal through mid week, with much
colder air arriving behind a front for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A very quiet near term period is in store with no clouds, no
visibility restrictions, and seasonably cold conditions expected
through daybreak. Temps will drop into the upper teens and
lower 20s just about everywhere, with parts of west-central Ohio
being the warmest as the pressure gradient remains a bit
tighter near/north of I-70, allowing for the winds to stay up a
bit more in these spots than in other locales.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
High pressure continues to dominate the weather this afternoon
and tonight with clear skies and light winds. Weak warm air
advection is expected via light westerly flow this evening.
This will provide a bit of resistance to what will otherwise be an
ideal night for radiational cooling. Lows should range from the
upper teens to lower 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Surface high will slowly shift to the east, with winds shifting
from the west to the southwest. Otherwise, guidance suggests
continued moderation in surface temps with highs rising into the
mid 40s and lows dipping into the mid to upper 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Models continue to trend a little slower with the next weather
system to affect the region Monday into Tuesday. Thus, for Sunday,
we are still expecting mostly sunny skies to start with increasing
clouds later in the day. Southerly flow and a modified airmass will
boost temperatures into the lower to mid 50s. For Sunday night, have
slowed down the pcpn chances in advance of the aforementioned
weather system. However, with increasing low level moist
ascent/convergence, rain should develop and move into
southern/southwestern areas in the later overnight hours. Lows will
generally range between 35 and 40 degrees. Short wave energy is
still expected to eject from the southern Plains to the middle
Mississippi/lower Ohio Valleys on Monday. Associated low pressure
will also take a similar path. Increasing dynamics and ascent will
result in rain across the region through the day and into the
evening. Highs will be in the 40s. For Monday night into Tuesday,
the short wave is expected to move northeast to the Great Lakes.
This will push the low northeast across our area with a cold front
moving east on Tuesday. Pcpn chances are expected to decrease in the
wake of the low and front during the day Tuesday. It will be
relatively mild with highs ranging from the mid 40s to the lower
50s.

For the period Tuesday night into Wednesday, a large scale mid level
trough will develop/dig east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
Embedded short wave energy moving through this trough will increase
the likelihood of rain through this period. CAA will develop late in
the day Wednesday, allowing for some snow to mix in across the
northwest. Temperatures will rise some during Tuesday followed by a
downward trend.

For Wednesday night into Thursday, the large scale mid level trough
will set up across the CWFA. CAA and a modified Arctic airmass will
bring back much colder temperatures with the chance of rain/snow
Wednesday night transitioning to a chance of snow showers on
Thursday. Highs on Thursday will range from the upper 20s to the
lower 30s. These readings will be about 15 degrees colder than
normal for late February.

Finally for Thursday night into Friday, the mid level trough is
progged to make a slow movement to the northeast. Inconsistency in
the models continue in terms of timing and strength of potential
embedded short waves digging across the region on the back side of
the departing trough. Considerable cloudiness should remain, but
gave kept the forecast dry for now given inconsistencies. It will
remain cold for late February with highs once again in the upper 20s
to the lower/mid 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR will continue with just a bit of cirrus passing across the
region. South winds will increase to 10 to 15 kt during the day
and then diminish after 00Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings may develop Sunday night. MVFR to IFR
ceilings and visibilities likely Monday into Tuesday. MVFR
ceilings and visibilities may then persist into Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hogue
NEAR TERM...KC/Hogue
SHORT TERM...Hogue
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...