Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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844 FXUS61 KILN 221954 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 354 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will approach the area tonight and move through on Monday. High pressure will build in for Tuesday and Wednesday. Heat will build back into the region at the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... A cold front will approach the area tonight. Clouds will increase, especially after midnight. Showers will spread into the area as well. It looks like coverage will be greater across the Whitewater and Miami Valleys. Cannot rule out a rumble of thunder. Tightening pressure gradient will keep winds up through the night. This will help keep low temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Prefrontal showers will diminish as they continue east across the forecast area early in the day. Another band of showers and possibly a storm may accompany the actual cold front which will move through the area between 12Z and 18z. Clouds will decrease in the afternoon and early evening but there will be some gusty post frontal winds for a period of time. High pressure will build in late in the period. There will be a limited rise in temperatures where the front moves through early in the day with some heating still possible ahead of the front in southeast counties. So highs will range from the mid 70s to around 80. Lows will be able to drop off to closer to normal Monday night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The FROPA through the region on Monday will allow for drier air to infiltrate the Ohio Valley for the start of the long term period -- with near normal to slightly above normal temperatures from Tuesday through Thursday. This will occur coincident with surface high pressure briefly building into the region followed by a secondary weak frontal passage Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. While certainly this secondary/midweek FROPA could deliver another round of isolated to scattered showers to the area -- as of right now, it does appear that the forcing and moisture availability will be rather meager. Only right along/ahead of the front is the moisture return likely to be sufficient enough to support a few showers -- but this corridor/stripe of better moisture will be rather narrow and transient. This would tend to suggest for the front to progress through the area with just some chance PoPs at best before drier conditions once again return by Thursday afternoon. The front will be accompanied by a more noticeable return of dry air opposed to inherently cooler air. In fact, dewpoints will fall again into the lower/mid 50s by late Thursday with clearing conditions through the day. By the end of the workweek into the upcoming weekend, longer range guidance remains in very good agreement showing fairly strong quasi- zonal mid/upper level flow transitioning to anomalously expansive ridging initially across the southeastern U.S./Carolinas late in the workweek before overspreading pretty much all of the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys by next weekend. This will occur coincident with digging S/W energy into the Pac NW and an ejecting system from the desert southwestern U.S. -- both of which will act to amplify the overall flow pattern across the rest of the U.S. The increasing meridional pattern /aided in part by the rapid deepening of the upper low along the west coast/ will induce tremendous height rises along/east of the Mississippi River Valley by this upcoming weekend with corresponding troughing across much of the west. While there are some natural discrepancies that exist in longer range solutions -- specifically as they relate to exact positioning of the center of the ridge -- there remains above normal confidence in another period of very warm temperatures setting up by the end of the long term period and even into the first part of the next week. The persistence of several/many deterministic and ensemble solutions showing this highly-amplified pattern lends itself to high confidence in above to even much-above normal temperatures to close out the month next weekend into the following week. In fact, EPS mean H5 heights approaching 2 standard deviations continue to be advertised across the Tennessee Valley about 7 days from now, with H8 temps 8C to even 10 C+ above normal. Many solutions show some of the most robust/anomalous heights/temps setting up squarely over the OH/TN Valleys. And it should be mentioned that this type of pattern, should it evolve in such a manner, would suggest the potential for record or near record temperatures to close out the month. Of course, the specifics of the pattern which will ultimately dictate the sensible weather locally will still be coming into better focus in the coming days. However, confidence is increasing in the potential for several days with daily temperatures 15+ degrees above normal for the final part of September -- with even some more 90- degree days not out of the realm of possibilities. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Gusty south southwest winds will diminish towards 00Z. It will be VFR with just a few cumulus. Clouds will increase ahead of a cold front but remain VFR until around 09Z. Scattered showers will occur and ceilings will fall to MVFR, likely getting below 2000 ft. A cold front will cross the terminals between 12Z and 18Z. Ceilings will lift above 2000 ft and perhaps even become VFR very late in the period at some locations. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings may linger into Monday afternoon. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...

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