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546
FXUS61 KILN 131755
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
155 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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A frontal boundary will oscillate across the area keeping the threat
for showers and storms in the forecast through the week. A
seasonably warm and humid pattern to continue through the week as
well. The active pattern toward the end of the week may bring
the potential for episodes of heavy rain and flooding.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Mean mid level trof to remain over the Great Lakes with trof axis
moving into the area toward sunrise Monday. Latest visible satellite
imagery shows low clouds breaking up from the northwest as a slow
moving front and slightly drier air slips in to the area. Moderate
instability develops with BL CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/KG this
aftn. With weak forcing a few showers and thunderstorms will be
possible with the best coverage across the eastern counties.

Embedded shortwave to pivot into the area overnight into Monday with
PWat values approaching 2 inches.

Model solution consensus indicates a thunderstorm complex will move
in from the west - with the best coverage across eastern Indiana and
southwest Ohio thru the evening. Additional thunderstorms move into
the region from the southwest overnight. PWat values approaching 2
inches are greater than 150 percent of normal - with heavy rain
being the main concern with tonights storms.

Some isolated locations may observe 1 to 2 inches of rainfall which
may lead to localized flooding.

In the moist environment temperatures will remain mild with lows
around 70.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Mid level shortwave trof axis and ongoing convection across the area
at sunrise Monday. A very moist environment to exist with PWat
values approaching 2 inches.  Although primary shortwave shifts off
to the east thru the morning but an elongated hang back trof keeps
shower and thunderstorm threat thru the afternoon and into evening.
The best coverage looks to be across the south.

Additional threat of heavy rain and localized flooding can be
expected. Highs on Monday are expected in the lower and middle 80s
with lows Monday night in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The longwave pattern on Tuesday has a ridge centered over the
eastern United States with a low-amplitude trough across the west.
Weak shortwave energy will continue to ripple from west to east from
the trough into the ridge, while a stronger piece of energy
traverses across the northern tier. With slightly drier air and weak
forcing over the middle Ohio Valley on Tuesday, showers and storms
will remain isolated.

The stronger shortwave will begin to flatten the eastern ridge on
Wednesday and Thursday. Low-level flow will pick up some and become
southwesterly, with moisture and instability increasing. Convective
details are still uncertain at this range; but overall, forcing
appears weak so despite pretty high coverage of showers and storms,
the activity may remain disorganized.

By Friday, a cold front looks to be dropping slowly south into the
lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will provide a focus for
storms along and ahead of the front. Guidance shows this front
dropping to our south for next weekend. If this occurs, we may quiet
weather for a couple of days at that time.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Latest visible satellite imagery shows low clouds breaking up from
the northwest and lifting to a cumulus cloud field as a slow moving
front and slightly drier air slips in to the area. This has allowed
conditions to improve to VFR at all TAF sites.

Moderate instability develops with BL CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/KG
this aftn. With weak forcing a few showers and thunderstorms will be
possible but mainly southeast of the TAF sites. Have VFR conditions
with only a prob30 mention of thunder at KCMH and KLCK this afternoon.

Thunderstorm complex to our west to begin to move into the area from
the west this evening with thunderstorm chances increasing. Mean mid
level trof to remain over the Great Lakes with trof axis moving into
the area toward sunrise Monday allowing the coverage of thunderstorms
to increase overnight across the TAF sites. VFR conditions to drop
to MVFR to IFR at times in thunderstorms this evening with widespread
MVFR ceilings developing late tonight into early Monday across all
the TAF sites.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday through Friday.
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&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR