Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 220532 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1232 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the mid-Mississippi Valley will slide east tomorrow into Sunday. This will lead to dry conditions through the weekend. A deepening upper trough over the plains will eject a series of disturbances, first on Monday, then again on Wednesday, increasing the chances for precipitation each day. Temperatures will be above normal through mid week, with much colder air arriving behind a front for Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... A very quiet near term period is in store with no clouds, no visibility restrictions, and seasonably cold conditions expected through daybreak. Temps will drop into the upper teens and lower 20s just about everywhere, with parts of west-central Ohio being the warmest as the pressure gradient remains a bit tighter near/north of I-70, allowing for the winds to stay up a bit more in these spots than in other locales. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... High pressure continues to dominate the weather this afternoon and tonight with clear skies and light winds. Weak warm air advection is expected via light westerly flow this evening. This will provide a bit of resistance to what will otherwise be an ideal night for radiational cooling. Lows should range from the upper teens to lower 20s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Surface high will slowly shift to the east, with winds shifting from the west to the southwest. Otherwise, guidance suggests continued moderation in surface temps with highs rising into the mid 40s and lows dipping into the mid to upper 20s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Models continue to trend a little slower with the next weather system to affect the region Monday into Tuesday. Thus, for Sunday, we are still expecting mostly sunny skies to start with increasing clouds later in the day. Southerly flow and a modified airmass will boost temperatures into the lower to mid 50s. For Sunday night, have slowed down the pcpn chances in advance of the aforementioned weather system. However, with increasing low level moist ascent/convergence, rain should develop and move into southern/southwestern areas in the later overnight hours. Lows will generally range between 35 and 40 degrees. Short wave energy is still expected to eject from the southern Plains to the middle Mississippi/lower Ohio Valleys on Monday. Associated low pressure will also take a similar path. Increasing dynamics and ascent will result in rain across the region through the day and into the evening. Highs will be in the 40s. For Monday night into Tuesday, the short wave is expected to move northeast to the Great Lakes. This will push the low northeast across our area with a cold front moving east on Tuesday. Pcpn chances are expected to decrease in the wake of the low and front during the day Tuesday. It will be relatively mild with highs ranging from the mid 40s to the lower 50s. For the period Tuesday night into Wednesday, a large scale mid level trough will develop/dig east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Embedded short wave energy moving through this trough will increase the likelihood of rain through this period. CAA will develop late in the day Wednesday, allowing for some snow to mix in across the northwest. Temperatures will rise some during Tuesday followed by a downward trend. For Wednesday night into Thursday, the large scale mid level trough will set up across the CWFA. CAA and a modified Arctic airmass will bring back much colder temperatures with the chance of rain/snow Wednesday night transitioning to a chance of snow showers on Thursday. Highs on Thursday will range from the upper 20s to the lower 30s. These readings will be about 15 degrees colder than normal for late February. Finally for Thursday night into Friday, the mid level trough is progged to make a slow movement to the northeast. Inconsistency in the models continue in terms of timing and strength of potential embedded short waves digging across the region on the back side of the departing trough. Considerable cloudiness should remain, but gave kept the forecast dry for now given inconsistencies. It will remain cold for late February with highs once again in the upper 20s to the lower/mid 30s. && .AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR will continue with just a bit of cirrus passing across the region. South winds will increase to 10 to 15 kt during the day and then diminish after 00Z. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings may develop Sunday night. MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities likely Monday into Tuesday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities may then persist into Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hogue NEAR TERM...KC/Hogue SHORT TERM...Hogue LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...

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