Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 181927 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 327 PM EDT Thu Oct 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure and cool dry weather will persist tonight to early Friday. Later on Friday through Friday night, showers will develop in increasing moisture ahead of a cold front arriving from the west. Cool and unsettled weather will continue on Saturday in the brisk westerly flow behind the cold front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... With the center of high pressure crossing the area, containing very dry air and light winds, there will be no precip tonight, and little to no cloud cover. Under these conditions that are favorable for radiational cooling, freezing to near freezing temperatures can be expected by 6 am, as suggested by blended model guidance. Went with a freeze warning over four far eastern counties where below 33 readings are most likely. Rest of southern counties where frost freeze program is still active may not experience temps quite that low, being in weak warm advection on the back side of the high later tonight. Kept mention of frost across the rest of the area where frost freeze program has been terminated. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Once Frost/Freeze headlines expire at 10 am, area will have increasing southerly winds and a gradual increase in clouds ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. We may even see a few showers develop in the afternoon, mainly over western locations. Highs will reach the upper 50s most locations, with lower 60s possible far south. Showers are forecast to overspread the area Friday night with cold frontal passage. Showers will be accompanied by gusty winds triggered by a 40 knot 850 mb jet. Kept thunder out in an environment that will contain around 100 J/KG CAPE and cloud tops around 15 kft. Expect overnight lows in the mid and upper 40s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A weak trough at the surface over northern Ohio and Indiana will couple with shortwave energy at the base of an upper trough on Saturday to bring a threat of rain showers to the region. The upper trough axis crosses east in the late day/early evening and essentially turns off any lingering threat for rain late in the day. Surface high pressure builds in the midwest and ushers in cooler and drier air to the Ohio Valley, with Sunday`s highs about 10 deg cooler than Saturday`s. Temperatures will rebound about 8 degrees on Monday with generally clear skies and a return to southwest flow. Tuesday will flirt with 60 degrees but be hampered a little in the north with cold advection wrapping around a surface high centered over Wisconsin. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 30s most of the period, with the exception of the upper 30s to around 40 expected Monday night. Numerical guidance is much warmer with lower 40s, but it has to be overdoing the southwest flow, which will not be strong enough to scour out the near-surface cooler temperatures. The next threat of rain comes at the tail end of the forecast as shortwave energy noses into the Ohio Valley from the midsection of the country. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Expect VFR to continue under high pressure and a very dry airmass, except at LUK where BR may reduce visibility late tonight. Skies will stay clear until cirrus invade near the end of the forecast ahead of the next cold front. Winds starting near calm tonight will increase Friday with speeds reaching around 10 knots out of the south to southwest. CVG may see showers in the vicinity and gusty winds near the end of their 30 hour TAF. OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are possible from Friday evening into Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Friday for OHZ077>079-081. Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Friday for OHZ073-074-082-088. KY...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Friday for KYZ089>100. IN...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Friday for INZ073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...Coniglio

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