Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 211801 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 201 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop today in the warm and humid airmass ahead of low pressure centered to the west. More showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday when the low is forecast to travel to the Great Lakes. Look for dry weather to arrive with high pressure Wednesday through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Isolated to scattered storms continue to occur and develop across eastern part of the forecast area in weak moisture convergence. Warm front extends northwest to southeast across the region and will slowly push east through the rest of the day. Expect additional development along this boundary, particularly in the northern counties. Cannot rule out a few storms forming elsewhere in areas of weaker forcing. Storms will have the potential to become severe with damaging winds and perhaps hail.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Low pressure continuing its northeastward progression will reach Northern Indiana tonight, before crossing Lake Erie on Tuesday. This will place the ILN area in a region of persistent moist ascent ahead of the slowly moving low. Instability decreasing during the overnight hours will allow thunderstorms to weaken at night, but shower chances will persist in the humid airmass aided by PVA. Thunderstorms will then reignite on Tuesday, with storm organization enhanced by increasing jet stream energy, though CAPE at around 1000 J/KG may be lower than on Monday. Eastern locations may see more intense thunderstorms in a zone of greater moisture convergence and lift. Highs near 80 are expected again. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Surface front to drop southeast through the Ohio Valley Tuesday evening allowing for a lingering chance of showers and thunderstorms. Northwest flow aloft to develop with surface high pressure building into the Great Lakes at mid week. Expect mainly dry weather with only a very slim chance of a shower early in the far southeast. Expect highs Wednesday in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The surface high will build southeast with continued dry weather Thursday. Above normal temperatures with highs from near 80 north to the lower/middle 80s south. As the high slides off to the east a southerly low level flow will develop with mid level ridging building into the Ohio Valley. Continued dry weather during the day on Friday. Temperatures will warm up with highs in the lower 80s north to the upper 80s south. Mid level flow backs ahead of a developing northern trof moving into the Great Lakes and a southern low over the Gulf states. Model spread exists regarding strength of the southern low, phasing and timing. Trends are a little slower, so will limit pops to chance across the west Friday night and then spread chance pops across the entire area Saturday. Will increase pops to high chance Sunday as a front associated with the Great Lakes trof comes into play. Temperatures to continue to warm with highs Saturday in the middle and upper 80s. Clouds and pcpn may mute temperatures a bit Sunday with highs generally in the lower 80s. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Cumulus field will develop into scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon and this evening. Have highlighted time of greatest potential for thunderstorms with tempo group with visibilities reduced to MVFR for now, although a brief reduction to IFR is possible. Once storms pass through the terminals, there could be some lingering showers before precipitation ends. Have kept conditions VFR although there is some chance that lower ceilings may occur around 12Z. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon and evening.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...

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