Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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000
FXUS61 KILN 250613
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
213 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
The region will remain under the influence of high pressure
centered to the east through Monday. Showers will spread across
the area Monday night ahead of a large storm system. Additional
showers and thunderstorms will occur Tuesday into Tuesday night
until a cold front passes.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Some mid and high level clouds will be possible at times
overnight as surface high pressure moves off to our east. Lows
tonight will be in the 35 to 40 degree range.
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.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Dry low level southeasterly flow will continue through Monday.
Pressure gradient will tighten a bit as a large storm system in
the center part of the country move east. This will lead to
winds a bit stronger than Sunday, both sustained and gusts.
Mixing will allow dew points to fall, especially across the
eastern part of the forecast area. Meanwhile, temperatures will
warm into the 60s under varying amount of mid to high clouds.
This will all lead to low relative humidities which may lead to
elevated fire danger.
Substantial short wave will lift out of the mid South and cross
the region on Monday night. Winds will be persistent, if not
increase a bit during the night. Strong moisture transport and
dynamic forcing will result in showers moving across the
forecast area, mainly after midnight. While wind fields aloft
are strong, expect mixing to be limited due to a nocturnal
inversion. But some higher gusts are possible with the onset of
the showers. Temperatures will only fall into the mid to upper
40s.
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.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
On Tuesday morning, an amplified weather pattern will be set up
across the eastern half of the CONUS. A deep trough will be ejecting
out of the central plains and into the midwest, with a narrow ridge
of high pressure still persisting across the southeastern states. At
the surface, a low pressure center will move through Wisconsin and
into northern Ontario, while a stretched-out surface front will
slowly move east through the Ohio Valley. Ahead of these features,
deep-layer southerly flow will help bring a period of wet weather to
the ILN CWA on Tuesday, and some storms on Tuesday afternoon and
evening.
Precipitation will likely be ongoing on Tuesday morning, with
significant moisture advection overrunning a cool boundary layer.
This inversion will keep wind gusts somewhat limited (30 MPH or
lower) on Tuesday morning, though as conditions mix a little more on
Tuesday afternoon, some gusts of 35-40 MPH could be possible. The
initial precipitation will largely be forced by the approaching
shortwave, along with some upper divergence. The overall setup has a
very meridional component to the wind flow, so forward (eastward)
progress will be slow. A very narrow warm sector will get into the
area on Tuesday afternoon, perhaps with a dry period behind the
initial rain, and some clearing of skies. This is when max temps in
the upper 50s to upper 60s (warmest with southwestward extent) will
likely occur. Some weak instability will likely develop, bringing a
chance of thunderstorms to the area by late afternoon and early
evening. These chances will end after the passage of the cold front
later in the evening, although some showers could persist through
Wednesday morning.
While not a classic hazardous weather setup due to the overall
orientation of the system, the overall parameter space appears to
support a low-end chance of some strong storms, which for the ILN
CWA would be maximized in the western sections of the forecast area.
Instability may be weak, but shear magnitude is sufficient for some
severe, especially if lapse rates in the low levels can steepen up
in the expected dry slot.
Temperatures will cool down for Wednesday and Thursday, as dry high
pressure moves across the area. Warmer conditions are expected
Friday and the weekend, with some potential for precipitation as the
flow pattern becomes a little more progressive. Confidence remains
low regarding any specifics for next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Conditions will remain VFR with showers holding off until late
tonight.
Mid and high level moisture to increase across the area as the
flow backs ahead of storm system taking shape over the nations
mid section. Southerly low level jet will begin to affect the
area tonight offering a period of low level wind shear after
03Z. Favorable isentropic lift develops late tonight and have a
mention of showers after 08Z at the 30 hour KCVG TAF site.
East winds around 10 kts this morning to become southeast at 12
to 15 kts with gusts of 20 to 25kts today and then to further
increase to 15 to 18 kts with gusts near 30 kts tonight.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible late Monday
night into Tuesday evening. Wind gusts up to 30 kt possible
Tuesday mainly during the afternoon and evening.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...AR