Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 250613 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 213 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The region will remain under the influence of high pressure centered to the east through Monday. Showers will spread across the area Monday night ahead of a large storm system. Additional showers and thunderstorms will occur Tuesday into Tuesday night until a cold front passes. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Some mid and high level clouds will be possible at times overnight as surface high pressure moves off to our east. Lows tonight will be in the 35 to 40 degree range. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Dry low level southeasterly flow will continue through Monday. Pressure gradient will tighten a bit as a large storm system in the center part of the country move east. This will lead to winds a bit stronger than Sunday, both sustained and gusts. Mixing will allow dew points to fall, especially across the eastern part of the forecast area. Meanwhile, temperatures will warm into the 60s under varying amount of mid to high clouds. This will all lead to low relative humidities which may lead to elevated fire danger. Substantial short wave will lift out of the mid South and cross the region on Monday night. Winds will be persistent, if not increase a bit during the night. Strong moisture transport and dynamic forcing will result in showers moving across the forecast area, mainly after midnight. While wind fields aloft are strong, expect mixing to be limited due to a nocturnal inversion. But some higher gusts are possible with the onset of the showers. Temperatures will only fall into the mid to upper 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... On Tuesday morning, an amplified weather pattern will be set up across the eastern half of the CONUS. A deep trough will be ejecting out of the central plains and into the midwest, with a narrow ridge of high pressure still persisting across the southeastern states. At the surface, a low pressure center will move through Wisconsin and into northern Ontario, while a stretched-out surface front will slowly move east through the Ohio Valley. Ahead of these features, deep-layer southerly flow will help bring a period of wet weather to the ILN CWA on Tuesday, and some storms on Tuesday afternoon and evening. Precipitation will likely be ongoing on Tuesday morning, with significant moisture advection overrunning a cool boundary layer. This inversion will keep wind gusts somewhat limited (30 MPH or lower) on Tuesday morning, though as conditions mix a little more on Tuesday afternoon, some gusts of 35-40 MPH could be possible. The initial precipitation will largely be forced by the approaching shortwave, along with some upper divergence. The overall setup has a very meridional component to the wind flow, so forward (eastward) progress will be slow. A very narrow warm sector will get into the area on Tuesday afternoon, perhaps with a dry period behind the initial rain, and some clearing of skies. This is when max temps in the upper 50s to upper 60s (warmest with southwestward extent) will likely occur. Some weak instability will likely develop, bringing a chance of thunderstorms to the area by late afternoon and early evening. These chances will end after the passage of the cold front later in the evening, although some showers could persist through Wednesday morning. While not a classic hazardous weather setup due to the overall orientation of the system, the overall parameter space appears to support a low-end chance of some strong storms, which for the ILN CWA would be maximized in the western sections of the forecast area. Instability may be weak, but shear magnitude is sufficient for some severe, especially if lapse rates in the low levels can steepen up in the expected dry slot. Temperatures will cool down for Wednesday and Thursday, as dry high pressure moves across the area. Warmer conditions are expected Friday and the weekend, with some potential for precipitation as the flow pattern becomes a little more progressive. Confidence remains low regarding any specifics for next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Conditions will remain VFR with showers holding off until late tonight. Mid and high level moisture to increase across the area as the flow backs ahead of storm system taking shape over the nations mid section. Southerly low level jet will begin to affect the area tonight offering a period of low level wind shear after 03Z. Favorable isentropic lift develops late tonight and have a mention of showers after 08Z at the 30 hour KCVG TAF site. East winds around 10 kts this morning to become southeast at 12 to 15 kts with gusts of 20 to 25kts today and then to further increase to 15 to 18 kts with gusts near 30 kts tonight. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible late Monday night into Tuesday evening. Wind gusts up to 30 kt possible Tuesday mainly during the afternoon and evening.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...AR

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