Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 241749 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 149 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system will move southeast across the lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley through this evening. This system will bring a mix of precipitation to parts of the region. High pressure and dry conditions will be present for Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Pcpn has remained snow so far for most of the precipitating region this afternoon. We should still see a little rain mix in mid to late afternoon or a little sleet. Temperatures in the pcpn have been held down a degree or two from previous max forecast highs, and these should remain quasi-stationary for the remainder of the day. Despite this, warm road temperatures and March sun angle are limiting road impacts, and much of the snow is accumulating on grassy surfaces. As such, will keep forecast snow totals going, i.e., 1-3" in the Advisory and 2-4" in the Warning with local higher amounts still possible. Previous Discussion---> Snow is occurring across our western and southern areas this morning. This is being generated at the nose of a low level jet. As we head into the afternoon hours, low pressure will move southeast across the lower Ohio Valley. Strong frontogenetic forcing to the northeast of the low and its associated surface warm front will bring another round of enhanced precipitation. The frontogenetic forcing (deformation) will continue the sharp cutoff to where it precipitates and where it does not. With temperatures warming some, snow will mix with rain and sleet at times in our western/southern zones, with perhaps a little bit of rain/snow just on the northern periphery of this region. Although qpfs will be substantial, the March sun angle and above freezing road temps will limit impacts on roadways outside of heavier snow bursts. Thus, accumulations of a wet snow, mixing with rain/sleet at times, will limit accumulations. Will keep current headlines as is: Winter Storm Warnings generally near and south of the Ohio River with a tier of counties in a Winter Weather Advisory just north of the Warnings. Thus, 2-4" (local higher amounts) in the Warning and 1-3" in the Advisory will continue. With a modest pressure gradient, gusty east winds can be expected. Highs today will be limited by pcpn and clouds and will range from the lower 40s north and northeast to the mid 30s in the southwest. Precipitation will gradually decrease and move out of the area tonight as the low pressure moves away to the southeast. Gusty easterly winds will continue. Lows will range from the lower 20s north to the lower 30s south of the Ohio River. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... High pressure and dry conditions will be present for Sunday. Went close to the superblend for temperatures. Some wind gusts generally around 20 to 30 mph will be possible. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure centered in eastern Canada will continue to extend into the Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday. A developing warm front will lift out of mid Mississippi Valley into the lower Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday. This will cause showers to spread across the region, marking the beginning of a wet period. Moist southerly flow will occur in advance of a slow-moving cold front that will cross the area late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Periodic showers are forecast until the front passes. But this front will not get much beyond the forecast area before stalling. This is in response to a wave of low pressure that will travel up the boundary Thursday. Precipitation will spread back across at least the eastern part of the forecast area in response to this wave. Once the low passes, the front will move far enough away to allow for some drying late in the week. Temperatures will start out the week below normal but on a warming trend. Highs will be near normal mid week although low will be above normal. Temperatures will drop back Thursday night and Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Benign VFR conditions are expected northeast of a DAY-ILN line, encompassing CMH and LCK TAFs over the next 24 hours. A brief VFR flurry may be possible at KILN but this will be falling from a 6-8kft deck if it does occur. A scant 40 miles southwest of ILN has LUK and CVG in a significantly different wx pattern with snow over the next few hours, creating LIFR conditions at times, with prevailing IFR conditions through about 21-22z. After this time, enough warming of the column will be occurring and rain will mix in with the snow, improving both cigs and vsbys. Expect all precip to be over btwn 1-3z this evening with rapidly improving sky cover and a gradual clearing trend overnight at all locations. East-northeast winds 12-15kt will see some higher 25kt gusts in the clearing that is found between precip at CVG and to a lesser extent LUK. DAY and ILN may see some gusts to 20kt overnight, while CMH and LCK may only gust during the daylight hours on Sunday. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible Monday and Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for OHZ070-078- 079-081-088. Winter Storm Warning until 2 AM EDT Sunday for OHZ077. KY...Winter Storm Warning until 2 AM EDT Sunday for KYZ089>100. IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for INZ058-059. Winter Storm Warning until 2 AM EDT Sunday for INZ066-073>075- 080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman/Novak NEAR TERM...Hickman/Novak SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM... AVIATION...Franks is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.