Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 161422 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1022 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... The area will be under a cold and somewhat moist westerly flow today and tonight behind departing low pressure. High pressure and dry air will build in for Tuesday. Low pressure crossing the Great Lakes is forecast to provide a chance of showers Wednesday and Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Upper low over northern Indiana will track due east through the day. This will keep cloudy and brisk conditions across the region. Looks like there will be little movement to temperatures through the day. Scattered snow showers will occur with better coverage in southern counties early and then the focus shifts into northern counties late. Amounts will be quite light and with radiation getting through clouds due to high sun angle, not expecting any accumulation unless more intense echoes develop, in which case a light coating on grassy surfaces is possible.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... A few snow showers are expected to linger tonight in the persistently cold and marginally moist westerly flow. Low temperatures are forecast to fall just below freezing. Have issued freeze warning for counties where growing season has started. Mitigating factors that may prevent a sharp drop off in temps include clouds and winds, so confidence in below freezing readings is a bit less than average. For Tuesday, weak high pressure forming under a northwesterly upper flow is forecast to bring dry weather conditions. Temperatures will rebound back toward normal while remaining below normal, with highs expected to range from the mid 40s north to the mid 50s south. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Surface high pressure to build across the area Tuesday night, offering dry weather. Surface and upper low to track through the Great Lakes Wednesday/Thursday time frame. Moisture is limited with this system, so will limit pops to chance category with the best chance across the north. Temperatures to warm up to readings close to or a little above normal. Expect highs from near 60 north to near 70 south. Model solutions have trended more amplified and slower with pcpn moving out. Will hang onto chance pops across the northeast through Thursday afternoon. Temperatures look to be 10 to 15 degrees below normal with highs Thursday from the upper 40s north to the mid 50s south. Surface high pressure to build across the area offering a return to dry weather for the end of the week into the first part of next weekend. Temperatures to moderate some but still remain below normal with highs Friday from the lower 50s north to the upper 50s south. Models have trended toward the ECMWF being more amplified and slower with upper level low over the southern plains next weekend. Will maintain a dry forecast Saturday and then limit pops to chance across the south Sunday. Temperatures to moderate a little closer to normal with highs Saturday and Sunday from the upper 50s north to the lower 60s south. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Aviation will be affected by lingering shallow moisture, producing MVFR ceilings and scattered snow showers. Gusty winds will also be evident, with speeds as high as 30 knots this afternoon out of the west. VFR will be possible around 01z, except farther east at CMH and LCK where MVFR may persist through the end of the forecast. Winds will continue to gust over 20 knots at CVG near the end of their 30 hour TAF. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Thursday and Thursday night. Wind gusts 25 kt or higher possible Thursday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for OHZ060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for KYZ089>100. IN...Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for INZ058-059-066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Coniglio

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