Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 191716 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 116 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level disturbance and secondary cold front will bring scattered rain and snow showers to the area this morning. Skies will clear out with many locations observing temperatures below freezing Friday morning. Surface high pressure will build into the area Friday through the weekend, offering dry weather conditions with a warming trend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As a trough axis at 700mb passes through the ILN forecast area this morning, a shift toward drier flow is occurring, and the cloud base is beginning to erode from the northwest. The main focus for this forecast update was to adjust the timing of this cloud erosion, and to provide a sunnier forecast for parts of the forecast area (especially in the northwestern corner). Temperatures were also adjusted upward slightly because of this. Elsewhere in the forecast area, some light snow is continuing east of Wilmington (and very light precipitation has occurred in the past half hour at the office). However, this should come to an end in the next couple hours, with dry conditions expected through the remainder of the period. Previous discussion > Sharp mid level trof to pivot east through Ohio this morning as secondary front drops south through the Ohio Valley. An area of snow showers observed on radar mosaic over ne IN and nw OH will swing through the area early today. The best coverage of pcpn will occur across the northern counties where some minor snow accumulation is likely on grassy areas. In the wake of this trof clouds will begin to break up with clearing taking place this afternoon from the west. Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees below normal today with highs from the mid 40s northeast to the lower 50s southwest. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Northwest flow aloft with surface high pressure beginning to nose into the area overnight. Skies will clear and with a chilly start temperatures will drop below freezing in many locations. Have issued a freeze warning for ILN/s southern counties where the frost/freeze program has begun. Temperatures will drop to lows from the upper 20s northwest to the lower 30s southeast. A large area of surface high pressure to build into the Great Lakes Friday. This dry airmass will offer sunny conditions with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Expect highs on Friday to range from the lower 50s north to the upper 50s south. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Period will feature generally dry weather due to a lack of deep moisture and forcing, until Wednesday when a cold front is forecast to bring a better chance of precipitation. Area will be under a northwest flow aloft Friday night and Saturday between a trough to the east and a ridge to the west. A large surface high developing beneath the confluent upper flow will provide dry weather conditions. More of the same is forecast for Sunday as the axis of the upper ridge traverses the region. Monday and Tuesday will probably stay dry as well, though a few showers may occur along and south of the Ohio River in moisture associated with low pressure far to the south. A better chance for showers appears for Wednesday when moisture is expected to increase ahead of a cold front and upper trough arriving from the west. A warming trend will be observed Friday through Monday due to advection and insolation, with highs increasing from the low and mid 50s Friday to the mid and upper 60s Monday. A modest retreat to the low 60s may be evident Tuesday and Wednesday under thickening clouds and slightly lower geopotential heights. && .AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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After a few remaining patchy MVFR ceilings lift over the next hour or two, VFR conditions are expected through the rest of the TAF period. The cumulus / stratocumulus clouds will continue to dissipate over the rest of the afternoon and evening, with clear skies expected overnight, and straight through the day tomorrow. Winds are slightly gusty out of the northwest at the moment, but will diminish in intensity later this afternoon. A switch to northerly or northeasterly winds is expected by tomorrow, but wind speeds should remain around 10 knots or less. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for OHZ060>065- 070>074-077>082-088. KY...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for KYZ089>100. IN...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for INZ050-058-059- 066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...Hatzos/AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...Hatzos

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