Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 160545 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 145 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will slowly move across the region through Monday night. A high will briefly build in on Tuesday, but another low will move into the Great Lakes later Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... The more widespread rain is continuing to make a very slow eastward progression and would expect it to be east of our area within the next hour or two. Otherwise, isolated to scattered wrap around showers are working east across Indiana and western Kentucky and these should move into at least southern portions of our fa in the next few hours. Will go ahead and hang on to some lower chance pops into the overnight hours to account for this and then allow for some additional lower pops later tonight as some better upper level energy moves in from the west late. As low level CAA continues to overspread the area, temperatures will fall into the 30s overnight. Any pcpn will likely start off as rain showers but then transition over to snow showers from the west later tonight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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Upper low will move across the area on Monday. This will keep cloudy and very cool conditions. There will be very little diurnal rise with highs more than 20 degrees below normal. In addition, winds will be gusty which will bring wind chills into the 20s to lower 30s. Scattered showers will occur with the low passage. There will be snow showers, although some places may warm enough in the low levels for this to mix with or change to rain. Amounts will be very light. Deep northwest flow combined with another disturbance dropping down the back side of the closed low Monday night will bring more scattered snow showers to the region with greater coverage across the northern counties. This could result in some light accumulations particularly from west central to central Ohio. Low will drop to near freezing area wide. Have issued freeze warning for counties where growing season has started.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... During the day Tuesday the vertically stacked upper level low over the New York/ Canadian border will continue to slowly pull northeast. As this occurs surface high pressure will move in from the northwest. Clouds Tuesday will likely be slow to clear with highs near 50 degrees across northern Kentucky and mid 40s towards Columbus. Tuesday night into Wednesday the next upper level low will push east across the Midwest with a warm front lifting north across the region Wednesday morning. Precipitation along the warm front looks limited as substantial dry air was observed in GFS forecast soundings around 700 to 500 MB. As the upper level low and corresponding surface low swings east across the Michigan/ Ohio border a surface cold front will also push through the region. During the day Wednesday the area is forecast to be in the warm sector with a warm up in store for the region. Timing differences with the corresponding cold frontal passage remain significant though with the GFS keeping as the fastest model. The ECMWF and the NAM are the slowest while the CMC is a good compromise. The CMC clears the front through the region very early Thursday morning. Have kept the trend towards a slight lowering in the PoPs as the atmosphere looks moisture deficient and weak in the way of lift. To be more precise, surface convergence along the front looks very weak as a prefrontal boundary will sweep out in front of the main cold front. There is a good wedge of PVA with the main upper level low, so have kept higher PoPs generally across the northern areas of the region. Thursday into Friday the upper level low will accelerate east as it merges with another upper level low over Quebec. This means surface high pressure will build into the plains allowing for clearing skies and warming temperatures Friday into Saturday. Saturday night into Sunday another upper level low will eject out of the western United States and approach the Ohio Valley. Significant model differences exist here with the ECMWF being slower than the GFS and the CMC being in between the two. Overall the track looks to be towards Kentucky/ Tennessee so have kept higher PoPs across our southern zones for Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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MVFR ceilings and isolated to scattered rain and snow showers will continue at TAF sites in the somewhat moist westerly flow behind departing low pressure. Winds will gust over 20 knots especially this afternoon during peak mixing. Improvement to VFR will be possible late in the forecast as weak high pressure builds in. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Thursday and Thursday night. Wind gusts 25 kt or higher possible Thursday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for OHZ060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for KYZ089>100. IN...Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for INZ058-059-066-073>075-080.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...Haines AVIATION...Coniglio

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