National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 111834
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
234 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The active weather pattern continues with additional rounds of
rain and storms through this evening. Showers persist tonight
through the daytime on Friday before drier conditions return for
the start of the weekend. Gusty winds are expected tonight and
Friday, with above normal temperatures trending below normal on
Friday before warming up once again for the upcoming weekend.
Much above normal temperatures are expected by early next week
with more rain and storms possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
Vigorous mid level shortwave over the Lower MS Valley to take
on a negative tilt and  ejects northeast across the area as an
80 KT jet rotates around it`s east side. Elongated associated
deep surface low to track northeast to a position over Lake Erie
this evening. Model trends are decidedly east and a little
weaker with the low. This places ILN/s are in more solid rain
today and shifts the more favored overlap region of
shear/instability further east.

Have issued a flood watch thru 06Z with a very saturated ground
and rainfall of 1 to 2 inches expected with locally higher
amounts possible. We are already observing responses on area
creeks and streams. Saturated local soil conditions have
resulted in an over performance (more responsiveness of rises
on rivers) during recent rainfall events.

CAM solutions are pointing to an arc of convection that approaches
the Ohio River after 21Z. By this time the low level winds have
veered so the hodographs become less favorable for discrete
storms. The movement of these storms looks to orient more
perpendicular to the 0-3km shear vector and DCAPE values are
around 600 J/KG. Given the strong forcing - potential looks to
exist for strong to damaging winds for a small window during the
late afternoon into early evening. We will try to find a
window - perhaps around 19Z to put up a supplemental balloon to
sample this environment.


Highs today to range from the lower 60s in eastern Indiana and
west central Ohio to near 70 in the lower Scioto Valley and
north Kentucky.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
As we progress past sunset and the sfc low begins to pull NE of
the local area, a sharp wind shift is expected with the FROPA,
which should progress W to E from EC IN (around 22z) to central
OH (around 01z). Gusty WNW winds to 30-35kts are expected late
this evening into early overnight before subsiding just a bit
past about 08z or so.

The SHRA should taper off progressively from W to E between
about 23z-03z, respectively, with dry conditions for several
hours before wraparound pcpn moves back in during the predawn
hours. The digging S/W on the wrn periphery of the deepening
midlevel low should provide enough persistent forcing amidst an
amply- saturated profile to keep SHRA going through most, if not
all, of the daytime Friday as well (especially in central OH).
Frankly, it`s not going to be a nice day to be outside on
Friday as WNW winds of 20-25 MPH will gust to 35-40 MPH as
steady light rain falls for most locales (especially for OH)
through at least mid afternoon. There may be some subtle
attempts for the pcpn to taper off late afternoon, but trailing
S/W energy may make this difficult to achieve. Highs will top
out in the lower 50s (central OH) to the mid 50s (SE IN and N
KY).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Westerly winds will keep up around 10-15 mph overnight Friday as
temperatures drop to the lower 40s under clearing skies. Saturday
will be sunny with a good increase in upper heights as the l/w
trough exits east. Highs will range from the lower 60s in west
central Ohio to the upper 60s in Kentucky south of the interstate
loop. Winds will not be as strong as previous days but still see 10-
15 mph with higher gusts area wide.

Zonal upper flow keeps a generally neutral height pattern over the
region through Sunday night, as warm southwest flow precedes a weak
surface low circulation cutting east through the lower Great Lakes.
Sunday will see highs in the low to mid 70s, some upper 70s in the
lower Scioto Valley and parts of northern Kentucky. The low will
also bring a chance of rain to the region that will be more
pronounced in central Ohio, peaking in the late day/early evening.

As the low trails a weak and dissipating cold front south of the
Ohio Monday, high pressure will build briefly in the northern Ohio
Valley. Increasing heights should permit highs to reach the mid 70s
in west central Ohio, upper 70s to near 80 elsewhere. Dropped the
chances of rain from late Monday night through Tuesday given the
warm sector signal of light precip but had to run with guidance
beginning Tuesday evening. This is when rain chances ramp up through
the overnight but still remain in the chance category.

From Wednesday onward, rain chances will continue but will not
certainly be the noted prevailing weather. Overnight lows max out
Tuesday night in the lower 60s, with daytime highs Wednesday similar
to Tuesday - mid 70s in the north and northwest, near 80 south and
east. The increased cloud cover associated with the rain chances
Thursday will bring about a 2-3 degree drop in highs, remaining in
the 70s which remains a solid 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Vigorous negatively tilted mid level shortwave over the TN
Valley to continue ejecting northeast across the area as an 80
KT jet rotates around it`s east side. Elongated deep surface
low to track northeast to a position over Lake Erie this
evening. As showers and storms pivot north back into the area
hi-res model solutions continue to keep the strongest storms
east of ILN/s area with a secondary area of convection over the
west close to the frontal axis. The main threat looks to be
heavy rain and flooding with the western storms with a marginal
wind threat.

As the low pivots north the front will sweep east thru the
TAF sites during the late afternoon/very early evening.
Thunderstorm chances will end but the threat for showers will
continue into the evening with MVFR ceilings dropping to IFR.
As showers temporary end later tonight the ceilings will
improve to MVFR and remain MVFR until late in the day Friday.

Southeast to south winds around 12kts with gusts of 18-20kts
through 22z-01z. The front will then sweep east during this
time frame, resulting in a sharp wind shift to the WNW
with sustained winds of 15-20kts and gusts to around 30kts.

Westerly winds will gust up 32kts overnight and continue
thru Friday morning with gusts into the lower 30s possible
by Friday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings will continue at times through Friday
afternoon into Friday evening. Wind gusts of 30 knots or
greater are likely Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
OH...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Friday for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
     051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Friday for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Friday for INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075-080.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...AR