Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 151451 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1051 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A potent low pressure system will bring widespread showers today. Colder temperatures and drier air will follow the low for Monday and Tuesday. Warmer temperatures and a chance of showers are expected Wednesday when low pressure is forecast to travel to the Great Lakes. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Surface low in the Cincinnati metro will continue northeast across the forecast area through early afternoon helping a cold front to sweep across the region. A convective line has developed along this boundary and this will continue. With backed winds and low LCLs ahead of the front, conditions are favorable for shallow circulations and potentially weak tornadoes. Additional showers were occurring behind the boundary with this precipitation gradually ending from west to east through the afternoon. Convective line may bring a brief period of heavy rain, but that will be brief with the rest of the rainfall being light to moderate. Still cannot rule out some minor flood issues, but at this point it appears that would be fairly limited at most. Expect warm sector to expand north ahead of the low. So temperatures will rise in central Ohio until the cold front moves through. Area wide temperatures will drop with the cold front.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Surface low pressure will be over Northeast Ohio this evening, before lifting to the Eastern Great Lakes tonight and then to New England on Monday. Deep moisture will have exited, while showers of rain and snow may linger in shallow moisture present in the chilly and damp westerly flow behind the system. Showers will also be also be aided on Monday by the cold pool aloft associated with the closed upper low that will be traversing Ohio. Little to no snow accumulation is expected due to warm ground temps and marginal thermal conditions for snow crystal development. However, high temperatures on Monday in the upper 30s will be more than 20 degrees below normal. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper level low pressure to lift northeast from the Great Lakes into southeast Canada Tuesday. Model trends slower with lingering snow showers Monday night into early Tuesday. So will hang onto pcpn a little longer. Freezing temperatures will be possible across some of the area Monday night but clouds may hold temperatures up. Expect lows Monday night to generally be in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Surface high pressure to build across the area Tuesday, offering dry weather. Temperatures look to be close to 10 degrees below normal with highs from the upper 40s northeast to near 60 southwest. Surface and upper low to track through the Great Lakes Wed/Wed night. Warm front to lift north across the region with surface wave passing to our north. Moisture is limited with this system so will limit pops to chance category with the best chance across the north. In the warm sector temperatures will be a little above normal with Wednesdays highs from near 60 north to near 70 south. Model timing differences exist regarding how quick precipitation chances end. ECMWF further south and slower ending the pcpn with the GFS being quicker. Will used a blended approach hanging onto a chance across the northeast into Thursday afternoon. Temperatures look to be around 10 degrees blow normal with highs Thursday from 50 north to the upper 50s south. Surface high pressure to build across the area offering a return to dry weather for the end of the week. Temperatures to moderate some but still remain below normal with highs Friday from the lower 50s north to the upper 50s south. Large timing and placement differences exist regarding the approach of the next low and associated precipitation next weekend. Due to model solution differences confidence decreases. Will slow onset of precip, allowing a slight chance of a shower to develop Saturday evening. Temperatures to moderate a little closer to normal with highs from the upper 50s north to the lower 60s south. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Low pressure and a cold front moving across the region will cause winds to shift to west early in the period with a brief period of gusts as the front initially moves through. Ceilings are quite variable ahead of the front, ranging from IFR to VFR. Looks like behind the boundary there will be improvement to VFR before an MVFR deck spreads across the area. Showers will occur both ahead of and behind the boundary. These showers will occasionally lower visibility. Showers will decrease from west to east later today into the evening. OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions and gusty winds likely Monday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Coniglio

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