Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
294 FXUS61 KILN 060607 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 207 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will be off to the east of the area today. A weak cold front will move across the area Monday into Monday evening. The front will stall near the Ohio River and then dissipate into midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Mid level ridging across the area will get suppressed eastward as a short wave approaches from the northwest. Surface high center is already off to the east with south to southwest flow occurring across the region through the day. Forcing across the region will be minimal at best, but there continues to be an indication, particularly in higher resolution guidance, that some showers and storms could develop from northern Kentucky, to east/northeast of Cincinnati. This corresponds to a forecast axis of slightly higher dew points and thus slightly greater instability. Also, it is not out of the question that convection that develops across Indiana ahead of the approaching short wave could make into parts of west central Ohio by the end of the day. Temperatures will be near or perhaps just a bit below persistence. But dew points will be slightly higher. So heat indices may push into the mid to upper 90s. HREF probabilities of heat indices at least 95 are 60 percent or higher for much of the Tri-State and further east near the Ohio River, with probabilities around 40 percent into the Columbus metro. But probabilities of reaching a heat index of 100 are less than 10 percent area wide. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Short wave will be deamplifying as it crosses the region on Monday. Associated cold front will move across much of the area during the day, with the tail end laying out across southern counties. Showers and storms will develop along and ahead of the boundary, mainly in the afternoon, which means that the greater coverage will be near and south and east of the I-71 corridor. Lows tonight will only be in the lower 70s, but high on Monday will be a bit lower than today except for in south central Ohio and northeast Kentucky. HREF probability of a heat index greater than 95 is more than 25 percent only in those southeast counties of the forecast area. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A bit of an unsettled weather pattern sets up for the work week thanks to zonal upper level flow and a series of potential lows/fronts around the area. The exact details of shower/storm timing remains very uncertain since forcing is fairly weak along with weak gradients. The main takeaway is there will be persistent chances for showers and storms Monday night through the end of the week. The chances peak each afternoon during peak heating before fading off each evening. Forecast highs are in the upper 80s and lows are near 70. && .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Expect some visibility restrictions in fog to develop at KLUK during the early part of the TAF period with the potential of dropping to IFR. That should dissipate by 12Z. Once again, few to scattered cumulus will develop with heating. There are some indications that isolated to scattered showers and storms may develop in northern Kentucky and southwest Ohio, so have continued with a PROB30 for KCVG, KLUK, and KILN. The cumulus will dissipate towards 00Z, but some mid clouds may remain about the area during the latter part of the period. Light south winds will veer slightly and increase to around 10 kt during the day. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible, mainly in the afternoon and evening, Monday through Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Campbell AVIATION...