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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 151451
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1051 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A potent low pressure system will bring widespread showers
today. Colder temperatures and drier air will follow the low
for Monday and Tuesday. Warmer temperatures and a chance of
showers are expected Wednesday when low pressure is forecast to
travel to the Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Surface low in the Cincinnati metro will continue northeast
across the forecast area through early afternoon helping a cold
front to sweep across the region. A convective line has
developed along this boundary and this will continue. With
backed winds and low LCLs ahead of the front, conditions are
favorable for shallow circulations and potentially weak
tornadoes. Additional showers were occurring behind the
boundary with this precipitation gradually ending from west to
east through the afternoon. Convective line may bring a brief
period of heavy rain, but that will be brief with the rest of
the rainfall being light to moderate. Still cannot rule out some
minor flood issues, but at this point it appears that would be
fairly limited at most.

Expect warm sector to expand north ahead of the low. So
temperatures will rise in central Ohio until the cold front
moves through. Area wide temperatures will drop with the cold
front.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Surface low pressure will be over Northeast Ohio this evening,
before lifting to the Eastern Great Lakes tonight and then to
New England on Monday. Deep moisture will have exited, while
showers of rain and snow may linger in shallow moisture present
in the chilly and damp westerly flow behind the system. Showers
will also be also be aided on Monday by the cold pool aloft
associated with the closed upper low that will be traversing
Ohio. Little to no snow accumulation is expected due to warm
ground temps and marginal thermal conditions for snow crystal
development. However, high temperatures on Monday in the upper
30s will be more than 20 degrees below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper level low pressure to lift northeast from the Great Lakes into
southeast Canada Tuesday. Model trends slower with lingering snow
showers Monday night into early Tuesday. So will hang onto pcpn a
little longer. Freezing temperatures will be possible across some of
the area Monday night but clouds may hold temperatures up. Expect
lows Monday night to generally be in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Surface high pressure to build across the area Tuesday, offering dry
weather. Temperatures look to be close to 10 degrees below normal
with highs from the upper 40s northeast to near 60 southwest.

Surface and upper low to track through the Great Lakes Wed/Wed
night. Warm front to lift north across the region with surface wave
passing to our north. Moisture is limited with this system so will
limit pops to chance category with the best chance across the north.
In the warm sector temperatures will be a little above normal with
Wednesdays highs from near 60 north to near 70 south.

Model timing differences exist regarding how quick precipitation
chances end. ECMWF further south and slower ending the pcpn with the
GFS being quicker. Will used a blended approach hanging onto a
chance across the northeast into Thursday afternoon. Temperatures
look to be around 10 degrees blow normal with highs Thursday from 50
north to the upper 50s south.

Surface high pressure to build across the area offering a return to
dry weather for the end of the week. Temperatures to moderate some
but still remain below normal with highs Friday from the lower 50s
north to the upper 50s south.

Large timing and placement differences exist regarding the approach
of the next low and associated precipitation next weekend. Due to
model solution differences confidence decreases. Will slow onset of
precip, allowing a slight chance of a shower to develop Saturday
evening. Temperatures to moderate a little closer to normal with
highs from the upper 50s north to the lower 60s south.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Low pressure and a cold front moving across the region will
cause winds to shift to west early in the period with a brief
period of gusts as the front initially moves through. Ceilings
are quite variable ahead of the front, ranging from IFR to VFR.
Looks like behind the boundary there will be improvement to VFR
before an MVFR deck spreads across the area. Showers will occur
both ahead of and behind the boundary. These showers will
occasionally lower visibility. Showers will decrease from west
to east later today into the evening.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions and gusty winds likely Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Coniglio