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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 191031
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
631 AM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance and secondary cold front will bring
scattered rain and snow showers to the area this morning. Skies
will clear out with many locations observing temperatures below
freezing Friday morning. Surface high pressure will build into
the area Friday through the weekend, offering dry weather
conditions with a warming trend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Sharp mid level trof to pivot east through Ohio this morning as
secondary front drops south through the Ohio Valley. An area of
snow showers observed on radar mosaic over ne IN and nw OH will
swing through the area early today. The best coverage of pcpn
will occur across the northern counties where some minor snow
accumulation is likely on grassy areas.

In the wake of this trof clouds will begin to break up with
clearing taking place this afternoon from the west. Temperatures
will be 15 to 20 degrees below normal today with highs from the
mid 40s northeast to the lower 50s southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Northwest flow aloft with surface high pressure beginning to
nose into the area overnight. Skies will clear and with a
chilly start temperatures will drop below freezing in many
locations. Have issued a freeze warning for ILN/s southern
counties where the frost/freeze program has begun. Temperatures
will drop to lows from the upper 20s northwest to the lower 30s
southeast.

A large area of surface high pressure to build into the Great
Lakes Friday. This dry airmass will offer sunny conditions
with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Expect highs on
Friday to range from the lower 50s north to the upper 50s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Period will feature generally dry weather due to a lack of deep
moisture and forcing, until Wednesday when a cold front is forecast
to bring a better chance of precipitation.

Area will be under a northwest flow aloft Friday night and Saturday
between a trough to the east and a ridge to the west. A large
surface high developing beneath the confluent upper flow will
provide dry weather conditions. More of the same is forecast for
Sunday as the axis of the upper ridge traverses the region. Monday
and Tuesday will probably stay dry as well, though a few showers may
occur along and south of the Ohio River in moisture associated with
low pressure far to the south. A better chance for showers appears
for Wednesday when moisture is expected to increase ahead of a cold
front and upper trough arriving from the west.

A warming trend will be observed Friday through Monday due to
advection and insolation, with highs increasing from the low and mid
50s Friday to the mid and upper 60s Monday. A modest retreat to the
low 60s may be evident Tuesday and Wednesday under thickening clouds
and slightly lower geopotential heights.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Sharp mid level trof and secondary surface cold front to pivot
through Ohio this morning. Scattered snow showers mixed at times
with rain showers will be observed with the best coverage
across KCMH/KLCK. MVFR ceilings will drop down to IFR for a
short duration across the northern TAF sites early. With the
passage of this trof clouds will improve to MVFR shortly after
sunrise and then VFR this afternoon. Surface high pressure will
begin to nose in overnight allowing skies to clear late this
afternoon into this evening.

West to northwest winds will gust up to 25 kts today and then
become north at less than 10 kts tonight.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for OHZ060>065-
     070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for KYZ089>100.
IN...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...AR