Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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441 FXUS61 KILN 120530 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 130 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS...
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Showers and thunderstorms are possible through Sunday, particularly in the afternoons and evenings before drier conditions briefly return for the start of the workweek. Temperatures will be near to above normal for the week, with warmer and more humid air gradually building back into the Ohio Valley by midweek. Several rounds of showers and storms will be possible midweek and beyond with a return to a more active pattern.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Dry conditions will prevail locally through sunrise, although it will be warm and muggy with temps dipping into the lower to mid 70s by daybreak. Some patchy fog will be possible in area river valleys and the lower Scioto Valley, but widespread fog is not expected. We continue to keep an eye on two main concerns for today: 1) The first and primary concern is the potential for a few strong to severe storms to develop by this afternoon into this evening. SCT to numerous storms are expected by early afternoon amidst a very warm/humid airmass, which will yield strong instby on the order of SBCAPE ~2500 J/kg within a largely-uncapped environment. The approach of a broad midlevel trof will provide just enough forcing to initiate some SCT convection, initially near/W of I-75 in the Tri- State and N KY by early afternoon. This initially-disorganized storm activity will likely evolve into one or more clusters with eastward extent by mid afternoon as initial storms near Cincy/N KY and Dayton early afternoon move to the ENE into south-central and central OH by late afternoon. Deep-layer shear will still be meager, so storm organization should be relatively minimal. This being said, there will be a very favorable deep-layer and LL thermodynamic environment (with DCAPE >1000 J/kg) to suggest that gusty to damaging winds due to downburst/outflow tendencies will be possible with the strongest cores. This initial activity will push off to the E before another (perhaps slightly more organized/linear) cluster of storms moves into EC/SE IN and WC/SW OH and N KY during the evening. This activity will also push E into late evening, eventually weakening with the decrease of diurnally-enhanced instby as it gets past the I-75 corridor by 02z. This being said, some ISO activity may linger well into the overnight with still plenty of instby to work with and some subtly-increasing forcing due to the approach of the S/W. Will mention the potential for a few strong to severe storms (as well as locally heavy rain/isolated flooding due to PWs ~125% of seasonal norms) in the HWO given the expectation for SCT to numerous storms this afternoon through this evening. The severe threat should be generally greater across the wrn half of the ILN FA, although a stray strong/severe storm cannot be ruled out just about anywhere through today. 2) With temps around 90 degrees and dewpoints in the lower 70s, heat index values will reach into the mid to upper 90s by early afternoon outside of areas impacted by storms. There are still enough uncertainties regarding storms/cloud cover across the area, particularly by mid afternoon, that there is not enough confidence to hoist a Heat Advisory at this juncture. But certainly the likelihood of heat index values to reach into the mid to upper 90s will be mentioned in the HWO.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
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Coverage of storms should decrease late into the evening as instby wanes a bit. This being said, a few ISO SHRA/TSRA may linger into the overnight hours as the S/W works E through the region. Although the sfc front will still be back to the W quite a bit, the forcing should decrease late in the night as the midlevel S/W pivots off to the E by the predawn hours. Warm and muggy conditions will continue tonight as temps dip into the upper 60s and lower 70s by daybreak Sunday. The primary system will continue to pull away from the OH Vly into the day Sunday, with the trailing "cold" front laying out from NE to SW across the local area by Sunday afternoon. LL convergence along this feature should be quite weak as the boundary gradually begins to wash out in the region. LL flow will become largely unidirectional across the area by midday, with no substantial forcing or lifting mechanism. This being said, do expect some ISO SHRA/TSRA to develop once again, particularly near/S of I-70 and E of I-71 where the best instby will reside (ahead of the front) by mid/late afternoon. Coverage and strength of storms Sunday should be lower than will be the case today, despite the ill-defined front draped across the region.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Given current expectations that much of the thunderstorm activity will develop south and east of the I-71 corridor Sunday afternoon, confidence is high that any lingering activity likely drifts southward into central Kentucky Sunday night. Very low PoPs remain in the south for Sunday night and Monday due to some deeper moisture lingering along the stalled front. As the ridge builds over the Ohio Valley Monday night into Tuesday, a weak shortwave begins to eject from the middle Mississippi River Valley. Due to some timing differences in the resurgence of deeper moisture from the southwest, low PoPs are reintroduced area wide by Tuesday afternoon and evening. Even with the low PoPs, Tuesday is likely to be dry for much of the area. This changes significantly heading into midweek. Wednesday and Thursday are expected to be quite stormy with deep moisture arriving with the shortwave drifting into the area from the west. This moisture persists over the region Wednesday and Thursday, combining with the arrival of the trough and cold front Friday. Convective activity over several days within a broad region of 1.8- 2.2" PWATs will favor periods of flash flooding in addition to the typical summer-like downburst severe threat. The timing of the shortwave will be key to determining the window where weather impacts may be highest. For now, Wednesday and Wednesday night looks to be the primary window. Uncertainty in how quickly this wet pattern breaks down is quite high by the end of the week and into next weekend.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Some MVFR/IFR VSBYs due to river valley BR/FG may impact KLUK in the several hours around daybreak, but otherwise VFR conditions will continue area-wide through 15z. Expect a healthy VFR Cu field to sprout by/after 15z, with SCT to numerous SHRA/TSRA development shortly thereafter. The greatest coverage should initially be focused across the W/SW half of the local area, especially for KDAY/KCVG/KLUK/KILN by 18z before clusters of SHRA/TSRA shift off to the E toward KCMH/KLCK by 21z or so. Additional activity is expected to move in toward/beyond 00z from the W before waning late in the period with eastward extent. Abrupt changes in VSBYs and wind speed/direction will be possible with any of the SHRA/TSRA activity and will be handled with amendments as needed. Some borderline MVFR/VFR CIGs are expected between 06z-12z Sunday for last part of KCVG 30-hr TAF. Light SW winds at 5kts or less through sunrise will increase to 10-15kts, with gusts close to 20kts possible, by this afternoon. Winds will decrease following the storm activity, but should gradually become more out of the WSW by daybreak Sunday. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Sunday and again on Wednesday, with the greatest chance during the afternoon and evening on both days. MVFR conditions are possible Sunday morning.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KC NEAR TERM...KC SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...McGinnis AVIATION...KC