Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 211927 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 327 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will push slowly east across the Great Lakes region through Sunday. This will provide for dry conditions and slightly below normal temperatures through the weekend. An upper level low pressure system moving out of the Mississippi Valley will bring a chance of showers for the start of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... H5 ridge will remain across the region, but will become elongated overnight. This is in response to an upper low working slowly east through the srn plains. Mid and upper clouds will continue to spill down into the region tonight, producing mostly cloudy conditions. This will keep temperatures warmer than the past few nights. Expect lows to range from the upper 30s in the far north to the mid 40s in nrn KY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The H5 low out in the srn plains will continue to drift east on Sunday. Upper ridge across the region continues to gets squeezed, but manages to remain over the fa. thicker part of the cirrus clouds shift south during the day Sunday, providing a some hints of sunshine. Temperatures will get close to normals as they reach the mid 60s, and maybe the upper 60s in the southeast. Sunday night the rain associated with the upper low starts to lift north. Consensus of the models to keep the region dry, so removed the slight chance PoPs across the far south. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... An upper level low will approach and meander around the area Monday through Wednesday. This will allow for extensive cloud cover. Off and on rain showers will be present during this time. There is some instability along and south of the Ohio River on Tuesday and therefore have a chance of thunderstorms in across this area during this time. High pressure will then be present Thursday into Friday morning. Went close to the slower ECMWF solution with a system moving through Friday night into Saturday bringing additional showers to the region. High temperatures will generally be in the 50s and 60s through the extended. Lows will generally be in the 30s and 40s across most locations. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... H5 ridge will remain across the region, but will become elongated over the next 24 hours as an upper low slowly works east through the srn plains. Mid clouds will affect the nrn tafs during first part of the period, with high clouds affecting the rest of the tafs. The mid clouds will move east of the nrn tafs by 00-03Z, leaving only cirrus for the rest of night. The nrn edge of the cirrus band drops south after 12Z Sunday, allowing the nrn tafs to go scattered. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings will be possible Monday night into Wednesday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL/Sites NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM... AVIATION...Sites

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