Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 190232

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1032 PM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018

An area of low pressure will move through the Ohio Valley
tonight, with a cold front also crossing the region, bringing
another round of cool air by Thursday morning. Some light snow
is possible Thursday morning, as a mid-level shortwave moves
east through the Great Lakes. High pressure will move into the
area by Friday and into the weekend, with dry conditions and
gradually warming temperatures.


Showers exiting eastern CWA will only linger for the next hour
or two and be followed by a longer break in the precipitation
than was earlier expected. Very little upstream observations are
showing the next batch of rain and/or snow showers from the cold
air push currently working in. Have expanded the area and time
interval of the non-weather period until this area of light rain
and/or snow comes in later overnight.


Dry northerly flow will continue on Thursday, which should help
to gradually erode the stratocumulus clouds, allowing for some
breaks by the second half of the day -- particularly over
Indiana and northwest Ohio. Persistent cold advection, even with
some sun getting through, will keep temperatures in the middle
40s to around 50. This is 15-20 degrees below normal.

With a chilly starting point and increasingly favorable skies
heading into the evening, a freeze may be possible on Thursday
night into Friday morning. It looked a little marginal (temps in
the lower 30s) for a third-period freeze watch, but this was
discussed among other NWS offices, so it is possible a headline
may be needed in the future.


First half of the extended period will see benign weather has a
large surface high pressure system settles over the midwest. Friday
is looking mostly sunny with temperatures rising to the the lower to
mid 50s.

High clouds will begin to increase on Saturday as upper level
moisture is forecast to still over the H5 ridge. Highs will push
into the mid to upper 50s.

Over the weekend, models push an upper level low out of the southern
Rockies and into the southern Mississippi Valley. The upper low
begins to fill as this occurs.  Due to the southern track, the
precipitation stays south of the region through the weekend. highs
on Sunday will warm into the lower to mid 60s.

As the models eject what is left of the low to the East Coast on
Monday, some of the precipitation is pulled north into the region.
Models are showing differences in how much and exactly where the
pcpn will be, but there is enough certainty to put some low PoPs in
the forecast for Monday into Tuesday.

By Wednesday and H5 s/w drops down from the nrn Mississippi Valley.
It merges with the initial upper low to bring additional chances of
rain. Highs will generally be in the 60s for early next week.


Line of showers with heavy rain and gusty winds is moving east
through CWA and will primarily affect ILN and CMH/LCK with rapid
improvement found at DAY and CVG/LUK. VFR cigs are prevailing
with this and though no CG strikes have occurred as yet, remain
possible but should be located away from TAF sites this evening.

After the line moves through, winds will shift northwest and
become gusty, possibly as high as 30 knots at the Cincinnati
airports. Ceilings will then gradually lower through the
overnight hours from northwest to southeast, with another steady
period of light rain then mixing with snow overnight.

Winds will remain somewhat gusty as they shift to the northwest
going into Thursday. Ceilings may briefly drop to IFR during the
early to mid morning hours, but a gradual improvement in
ceilings is expected by afternoon as skies clear.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.




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