Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 151719

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
119 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018

A weak cold front will move east today, allowing high pressure
to build from the northwest. Dry weather will continue on
Friday as the high progresses across the region, before
precipitation returns Saturday ahead of low pressure tracking
through Kentucky. High pressure and dry conditions are forecast
to return Sunday.


A look at the surface analysis shows a cold front moving into
the ILN CWA this morning, bringing essentially no change in
weather to speak of, outside of a shift in the winds to the WNW.
Two large areas of surface high pressure have prominent
positions in the pattern -- one over Florida, and another over
the Manitoba/Ontario border area. The ridge running between the
two extends into the lower Ohio Valley, and as the
aforementioned cold front departs, the axis of this ridge will
move into the OH/IN/KY area by evening. This is a very dry air
mass, with the 12Z KILN sounding recording a precipitable water
value of just 0.21 inches. A dry forecast will be maintained
through the day, with clear to mostly clear skies in most
locations. It does look like some cumulus or stratocumulus
clouds may drift on into central Ohio at some point this
afternoon, but given upstream trends, sky percentages will be
kept under 40 percent. Current temperature trends, latest
HRRR/RAP projections, and the clear/dry conditions this morning
suggest that there will be a pretty solid rise in temperatures
this afternoon, even with some weak 925mb cold advection behind
the front this morning. Max temps were raised a degree or two
from the previous forecast.

Previous discussion >
Surface analysis shows a weak cold front entering Northwest
Ohio. Mid level clouds are increasing ahead of the front.
Otherwise, skies should remain mainly sunny today as there is
very little moisture to be found near this front. A shift in
wind direction from southwest to northwest will occur with
frontal passage, and gusts over 20 mph will be observed.
Insolation and a well mixed environment will allow high
temperatures to reach the lower 40s north up to the mid 50s


Surface high pressure extending along a northwest flow aloft
will push across the Ohio Valley tonight through Friday. Mainly
clear skies tonight will be followed by increasing clouds from
the southwest on Friday as mid and high clouds develop ahead of
the next low pressure system. Relatively brisk north winds
tonight will subside Friday while shifting to northeast as the
high moves through. Temperatures will slip a few degrees in the
cool circulation around the high, with afternoon readings in the
upper 30s north to the upper 40s south.


Mid level low over the central plains to open up and weaken as it
tracks across the Ohio Valley Saturday/Saturday night. WAA
precipitation to develop ahead of weakening low late Friday night.
Low level easterly flow will keep cold air at the surface, with warm
air aloft. Therefore, the potential exists for a period of freezing
rain late Friday night/Saturday morning prior to changing to rain.
Temperatures will continue below normal with highs Saturday from the
lower 40s north to near 50 south.

With weakening surface low tracking through the Ohio Valley rain
showers to end Saturday night.

Surface high pressure to build across the area offering dry weather
Sunday. Temperatures are expected to warm slightly above normal with
highs Sunday from the upper 40s north to the mid 50s south.

Next mid level and surface low to track into the Ohio Valley early
next week. Model solutions have trended a little slower, so have
chance pops for rain showers developing Monday afternoon. Above
normal temperatures expected Monday with highs from the upper 40s
north to the upper 50s south.

System to track through the Ohio Valley Monday night/early Tuesday,
so have continued likely pops for rain showers during this period.

Complex weather pattern with next mid level s/w ejecting into the
region from the southwest Tuesday/Tuesday night as energy drops down
into the upper Mississippi Valley. This will keep a chance of pcpn
going with pcpn changing to snow across most of the area Tuesday

Temperatures turn cooler with highs Tuesday from near 40 northwest
to 50 southeast.

As upper MS VLY energy digs southeast a large mid/upper level low to
develop in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame. Model solutions show a
large spread in the development and placement of this system.
Therefore, confidence is low from the middle into the end of next
week. Have limited pops to chance category but if the low closes off
over the Ohio Valley pops will be higher. Cooler temperatures to
continue with highs Wednesday from the upper 30s northwest to the
mid 40s southeast. On Thursday highs to range from the the lower 40s
north to upper 40s south.


VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. With dry air
in place, only a few cumulus clouds are developing, mainly in
northern and central Ohio. Some NW wind gusts to around 20 knots
are expected today, but winds will diminish overnight, gradually
shifting to the N and then NE.

High clouds will move into the area tomorrow, with winds
generally below 10 knots.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible on
Saturday, along with a chance for some freezing rain.




NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Hatzos
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Hatzos is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.