Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 161052 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 652 AM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure will move in from the north today and then push east. Tonight, an area of low pressure will begin to move east from Missouri through Kentucky. This will spread a mix of rain, freezing rain, ice pellets, and snow into the northern Ohio Valley. High pressure and dry conditions are forecast to return Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Mostly clear skies currently across the area as surface high pressure builds in from the north. The 850 MB front is crossing the region with CAA working in from the north. This has allowed for some wind gusts to work down to the surface from the low levels. During the afternoon today some high clouds will move in from the west as Ohio remains in between a potent surface low over Kansas and a strong upper level trough axis over New England. Low level thermal profiles will be cooler today than yesterday (with 850 MB temperatures around 5 degrees C below zero), but will start to recover as the upper level trough axis pulls east. Overall, temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s across northern Kentucky and around 40 degrees across Central Ohio. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Late tonight into early Saturday morning the low pressure that was in Kansas will move into Illinois and Indiana. The mid level feature will begin to shear out and open up and get absorbed into the east coast upper level trough axis. For the Ohio Valley this means the surface low will track south of the area keeping us north of the warm front. Late tonight, isentropic upglide will commence across the western zones and slowly progress east. As this happens low level thermal profiles will quickly warm above freezing with surface temperatures remaining below freezing across the northeastern part of the area. This means that freezing rain will be possible. The latest high res ECMWF and NSSL WRF runs bring the freezing line south almost to the Ohio river and with northeast winds this is plausible. The latest METRo road model indicates possible issues on area roadways mainly north of Interstate 70. The other concern here is p-type on the northern edge of the system. The NAM, GFS, and ECMWF have thermal profiles that support freezing rain, ice pellets, snow and rain towards Columbus. The forecast evolution of the thermal profiles presented by the models makes sense as an initial freezing rain profile cools due to the approaching mid level wave which supports a transition over to ice pellets and then possible snow. Across the central zones up to a tenth of an inch of ice will be possible with a warm nose forecast to hang on through much of the duration of the event. Given a pretty consistent signal with this, have gone ahead and issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Central Ohio. Future forecasts will continue to have watch the southern freezing line. During the day Saturday temperatures will slowly warm above freezing as the surface low pressure skirts east just south of the area. The isentropic upglide wing of the system will pull east in the afternoon with a weak deformation axis moving across northern Kentucky and southern Ohio. Across the south Saturday afternoon thermal profiles will support all rain with precipitation across the north ended. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A few showers may linger across our far southeast into Saturday evening. Otherwise, surface high pressure will build east across the region Saturday night into Sunday before shifting off to the east Sunday night. This will provide for dry conditions with highs on Sunday in the upper 40s to lower 50s. A closed mid level low and an associated surface low will push east out of the Plains on Monday and across the Ohio Valley through the day on Tuesday. Ahead of the low, models are in decent agreement spreading pcpn into our area from the southwest Monday night and then lingering it across our area through the day on Tuesday. Thermal profiles support primarily rain with this wave, although depending on how fast the pcpn spreads into the area, there could be a rain/snow mix or even all snow across our far north late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Highs on Monday will be in the upper 40s into the north to the mid to possibly upper 50s across the south. Highs on Tuesday will cool into the 40s. Some uncertainty then arises through mid week as the models try to amplify the mid/upper level trough over the East Coast and are suggesting the possibility of an inverted surface trough nosing back into the upper Ohio Valley. This would likely keep the threat for pcpn continuing Wednesday into Wednesday night before tapering off on Thursday. As the low level flow transitions to more northerly Wednesday into Wednesday night, thermal profiles will continue to cool. This will allow for a transition from mainly rain on Wednesday to snow as we progress into Wednesday night. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Surface high pressure continues to build in from the north this morning with wind gusts progressing south along the stronger CAA. The ridge axis will move overhead late this morning into early afternoon with winds veering and weakening. This evening into early Saturday afternoon surface high pressure will begin to pull east as surface low pressure moves into Missouri. Ahead of this next system clouds will begin to lower with widespread warm air advection commencing. High res models in general keep all taf sites clear of precipitation through 03z Saturday. Between 06z and 09z precipitation moves into KCVG/ KLUK and progresses east. As of now it looks like most of the precipitation will remain as liquid towards KCVG/ KLUK. There are some hints from the NSSL WRF and ECMWF that it might be close. For now have kept KCVG/ KLUK as all liquid. Towards KILN/ KDAY/ KCMH/ and KLCK freezing rain looks likely sometime Saturday morning. VFR ceilings will also slowly lower to MVFR later Saturday morning across KCVG/ KLCK. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible on Saturday, along with a chance for some freezing rain. Monday night into Tuesday MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ034-035-042>046-051>056-061>065-073-074. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Haines SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Haines is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.