Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 190034 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 834 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will provide dry weather tonight, before another area of low pressure brings precipitation to the region late Monday through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Very dry low level conditions will continue tonight, with surface dewpoints still in the teens to low 20s. High pressure is being squeezed out by the developing shortwave and associated low pressure to lift NE into the Ohio Valley, but effects wont be seen until very late Monday. While some lower clouds will approach the south overnight, the remaining abundance of dry air will be tough to overcome, so mostly clear overnight most areas. overnight lows still look to be on target, ranging from the lower 30s in the north to the mid to upper 30s south. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 12Z run of the models have trended a little slower and farther south with the ejecting low and its precipitation. Therefore backed way off on PoPs for Monday. Dried out almost the entire fa, except for a slight chance in the Kentucky counties south of CVG. Highs will generally range from the upper 40s in the extreme north counties to the mid to upper 50s in the south. Monday night the H5 s/w ejects out through Kentucky, pushing a surface low through the TN valley. Precipitation will push into the southern half of the fa during the evening, then over the rest by morning. Precipitation starts as rain, but after 06Z surface temperatures in the north begin to drop to around or below freezing, as critical thicknesses drop. This will produce another round of wintry mix. The south will be a rain/sleet/freezing rain mix, while the north will be more of a snow/freezing rain mix. Accumulations of either snow or freezing rain will be very light. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... There will be a chance for a light mix of precipitation at the start of the long term Tuesday morning, however confidence is not high in precipitation type Tuesday morning. As temperature profiles warm, expect precipitation to change over to all rain during the day on Tuesday. Tuesday night an area of low pressure is expected to be situated just southeast of the forecast area. This area of low pressure has trended further north, increasing not only snowfall chances, but accumulations with snowfall as well. Cooler air will be brought into the region Tuesday night and expect precipitation to change over to all snow. With snowfall falling during the overnight hours Tuesday night there is a greater potential for snowfall to accumulate. Have over an inch of snow across most of the region with a large portion of the region expecting at least 2 to 3 inches of snow. There is the potential for some banding of snow so cannot rule out a swatch of larger values in excess of 4 inches for the entire event which will continue through the day on Wednesday and into Wednesday evening before tapering off. There are still some model discrepancies in the details of the system and therefore decided to stay away from some of the larger 4 inch values for now until there is more model run to run consistency. After this time dry conditions are expected for Thursday into Friday before another system brings a mix of rain and snow to the region for the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions and light winds remain overnight as high pressure continues to dominate, albeit weakening overnight. High clouds most locations, with a VFR 4-5kft skirting CVG vicinity between 06-12z. Aside from this brief lowering, only high clouds all locations through about 18z, then tightening sfc gradient to bring in se winds gusting to near 20kts and another VFR 4-5kft deck after 21z. KCVG will finally see onset of -shra after 00z in response to the deepening low and approaching warm frontal boundary. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Tuesday through Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sites/JDR NEAR TERM...JDR SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM... AVIATION...Sites is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.