Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 140514 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 114 AM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered snow showers have formed across the area today thanks to a potent upper level low. High pressure is forecast to bring dry weather and moderating temperatures Wednesday through Friday. Low pressure will provide a chance of rain showers to southern locations on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Snow shower activity has been steadily decreasing over the last couple of hours and expect this trend to continue through the rest of the evening. The exception may be across our far southwest, where some snow showers associated with the secondary upper level short wave, will continue to skirt the area over the next few hours. Localized accumulations of a half inch or so will be possible from the snow showers. Air temperatures have fallen below freezing and this is leading to some refreezing/ice development in areas that have seen recent snow bursts. Will go ahead and issue a general SPS to account for this. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... During the day Wednesday the upper level low will slowly push east with surface high pressure diving south towards Arkansas. Drier air will try to work into the area, but persistent wrap around moisture will continue to rotate south around the upper level low. 850 MB temperatures are forecast to be around 12 degrees C below zero or around a SD below normal. 850 MB temperatures will slowly recover during the afternoon, but with clouds and below normal thermal profiles going towards the low end of guidance for Wednesday looks prudent. This mean that many locations will likely struggle to make it out of the 30s during the day. Wednesday night into Thursday morning an upper level disturbance will dive south out of far eastern Ontario bringing another front through the area. The front will be a dry frontal passage though thanks to a lack of moisture and being on the convergent side of the trough axis. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Northwest flow aloft with s/w and surface front to drop south through the Ohio Valley Thursday. Due to limited moisture and forcing will maintain a dry forecast and only allow for some increase in clouds. Temperatures are expected to be slightly below normal with highs from the lower 40s north to the lower 50s south. Mid level low develops over the central plains Friday with overrunning pcpn developing along and north of a front in the TN VLY. Surface high pressure builds southeast across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley keeping ILN/s area dry Friday. Below normal temperatures to continue with highs Friday from the upper 30s north to the mid 40s south. The mid level low will open up and weaken as it tracks across the Ohio Valley Saturday. Will keep chance pops of showers across the south. The pcpn will likely begin as a mix of rain and snow early before changing to all rain Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will be close to normal with highs Saturday from the mid 40s north to the to near 50 south. Surface high pressure to build across the area offering dry weather Sunday. Temperatures are expected to warm above normal with highs Sunday from the lower 50s north to the upper 50s south. Mid level flow backs westerly with next s/w bringing a chance of showers Monday into Tuesday. Pcpn expected to be mainly rain with a mix across the north possible Monday night into Tuesday morning. Above normal temperature expected Monday with highs from 50 north to the upper 50s south. Temperatures closer to normal Tuesday with highs 45 north to 55 south. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Conditions have become VFR as high pressure and dry air build from the southwest. MVFR ceilings may return to CMH and LCK 08z-12z. After 12z, VFR should persist through the end of the forecast as the high moves across the Gulf Coast and a dry cold front drops to Ohio from the Great Lakes. The tightening pressure gradient surrounding the front will cause west winds to gust over 20 knots this afternoon. Mainly clear skies and decreasing winds are expected by the end of the forecast. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible Sunday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...Sites AVIATION...Coniglio is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.