


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
211 FXUS61 KILN 262343 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 743 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and humid conditions, along with scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms, will continue through this weekend. Precipitation chances will then continue at times into early next week, peaking on Monday. Temperatures will return to more seasonable readings toward the middle of next week, with drier conditions expected. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Strong to extreme instby, with SBCAPE on order of 3500+ J/kg, has developed with little to no inhibition. This has allowed for CI to evolve across the area in a fairly widespread, albeit very disorganized, fashion. The good news is that the LL/deep-layer flow remains incredibly weak, so storm organization is not expected. The caveat to that, however, is that storm motions will be slow. This, combined with PWs in the 1.5 to 2 inch range, lends itself to some potential for locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding in the most persistent activity. It will also be tough to rule out isolated damaging wind gusts with some of the stronger storms given the ripening thermo/DCAPE environment, but this potential should remain isolated in nature. The one thing we may not see as much of today is strong outflow/gust fronts emanating in all directions quite like we did yesterday. This had a stabilizing effect on the environment into mid evening across a large part of the area, which allowed for a quicker "downturn" in coverage than is expected today. Do think that, with the unstable environment and lack of any pronounced outflows expanding across a large part of the area, activity will percolate until sunset. Many spots may have already reached their daytime highs, particularly as storm coverage increases through mid/late afternoon. Nevertheless, highs will top out in the lower 90s for most locales, with heat index values peaking around 100F. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Scattered/disorganized pulsy convection will continue through sunset before dissipating thereafter, yielding mostly dry conditions area- wide for tonight. It will be another warm/muggy night, with lows only dipping into the lower/mid 70s. The mid level ridge will begin to flatten even more through Friday with heights not quite as anamolously-high as the past couple of days. As a result, temps will be a tad lower with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Even with this, humidity (dewpoints) will still be in the lower 70s, leading to peak afternoon heat index values in the upper 90s to lower 100s. As such, will maintain the current Heat Advisory through 8 PM Friday. Meanwhile, some diurnally-driven SHRA/TSRA are expected once again, particularly for locales near/E of I-71 where the best instby should develop. The overall environment may be /slightly/ less conducive to gusty/damaging wind potential, but the overall high CAPE/low shear environment remains largely unchanged from today. Any slow-moving or persistent activity will also bring with it an isolated flood potential, too. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Upper ridge flattens out but maintains increased heights ~590dm at this level, then begins a drop Sun night ahead of a very weak s/w trough. The upper trough crosses CWA Mon night and nw flow aloft takes its place. GFS never really drops much, maintaining a 30dm increase over the ECMWF, and has support from the Canadian model. Ahead of a building high pressure ridge in the upper Midwest, heights begin to increase again on Thurs per Canadian and GFS. Euro at this time continues a cool nw flow and lower heights. Ridge should be over local area later on Friday. Saturday looks to have a weak fropa and associated shower/tstorm activity, with a notable decrease in the evening. A chance of precip exists on Sun, decreasing again overnight. This precip threat looks to be an artifact of the NBM and should be dry in the north with lower chances to the south per deterministic models and neutral/weak height increases. Mon/Mon night stand a good chance for more convective activity given the upper trough and a trailing surface fropa. Once again, NBM pops on Tuesday are likely noise from the blended ensemble members. It will depend on if front is still in the southeast in the morning with a potential for lingering showers, but fcst should be trimmed by 20-30% on Tues and continued dry through Thurs. Temps drop into the mid 80s on Sat and hover near 90 Sun/Mon, dropping to the mid 80s for the remainder of the fcst. Lows near 70 will drop to the mid 60s Tues night, lingering there for rest of fcst. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Thunderstorm activity has finally cleared area TAF sites this evening, with any lingering light rain dissipating within the next hour or two. With all of the thunderstorm generated outflow boundaries, winds are a bit variable across the area but generally less than 10 knots. Eventually, winds will either become light out of the south or completely calm. VFR CIGs are expected into the overnight as debris clouds left over from the thunderstorms gradually clears. Through the early morning (08Z-12Z), there are some expectations for fog development due to the added moisture from the rainfall today. These forecasts are typically made with low confidence so expect some adjustments through the overnight. Southerly flow will become more southwesterly Friday afternoon with another round of showers and thunderstorms expected. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible each day through Monday, mainly in the afternoon and evening. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ026-034-035-042>046- 051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for KYZ089>100. IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075- 080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...KC/JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...McGinnis