Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 151050 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 650 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A potent low pressure system will bring widespread showers today. Colder temperatures and drier air will follow the low for Monday and Tuesday. Warmer temperatures and a chance of showers are expected Wednesday when low pressure is forecast to travel to the Great Lakes. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1004 mb surface low pressure over Indiana this morning will move to Ohio today. The low will deepen by a few millibars in response to increasing short wave energy rotating around a closed 500 mb low trailing the surface low. A plume of deep moisture containing 1.5 inches PWAT is being advected on the warm conveyor belt ahead of the low into a band of frontal convergence, producing widespread moderate showers. Those showers will continue into this afternoon until much shallower moisture circulates in behind the low, producing a diminishing trend from southwest to northeast. This event will result in one to two inches of rainfall across the forecast area. No flooding has been reported yet, but localized high water may become an issue, and some river points along the Whitewater, Great Miami and Scioto Rivers are being monitored closely and may eventually go into minor flood. Temperatures will be steady or slow falling as cooler air works in behind the low. Expect afternoon readings to range from the lower 50s west up to around 60 east. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Surface low pressure will be over Northeast Ohio this evening, before lifting to the Eastern Great Lakes tonight and then to New England on Monday. Deep moisture will have exited, while showers of rain and snow may linger in shallow moisture present in the chilly and damp westerly flow behind the system. Showers will also be also be aided on Monday by the cold pool aloft associated with the closed upper low that will be traversing Ohio. Little to no snow accumulation is expected due to warm ground temps and marginal thermal conditions for snow crystal development. However, high temperatures on Monday in the upper 30s will be more than 20 degrees below normal. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper level low pressure to lift northeast from the Great Lakes into southeast Canada Tuesday. Model trends slower with lingering snow showers Monday night into early Tuesday. So will hang onto pcpn a little longer. Freezing temperatures will be possible across some of the area Monday night but clouds may hold temperatures up. Expect lows Monday night to generally be in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Surface high pressure to build across the area Tuesday, offering dry weather. Temperatures look to be close to 10 degrees below normal with highs from the upper 40s northeast to near 60 southwest. Surface and upper low to track through the Great Lakes Wed/Wed night. Warm front to lift north across the region with surface wave passing to our north. Moisture is limited with this system so will limit pops to chance category with the best chance across the north. In the warm sector temperatures will be a little above normal with Wednesdays highs from near 60 north to near 70 south. Model timing differences exist regarding how quick precipitation chances end. ECMWF further south and slower ending the pcpn with the GFS being quicker. Will used a blended approach hanging onto a chance across the northeast into Thursday afternoon. Temperatures look to be around 10 degrees blow normal with highs Thursday from 50 north to the upper 50s south. Surface high pressure to build across the area offering a return to dry weather for the end of the week. Temperatures to moderate some but still remain below normal with highs Friday from the lower 50s north to the upper 50s south. Large timing and placement differences exist regarding the approach of the next low and associated precipitation next weekend. Due to model solution differences confidence decreases. Will slow onset of precip, allowing a slight chance of a shower to develop Saturday evening. Temperatures to moderate a little closer to normal with highs from the upper 50s north to the lower 60s south. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Large swath of moisture and lift ahead of low pressure and a cold front continues to trigger showers and lowered ceilings and visibilities at TAF sites. Ceilings as low as LIFR have developed at DAY and ILN with showers, and with another surge of showers evident on upstream radar, similar conditions will persist through the morning and most of the afternoon. We will then see drier air beginning to work in behind the system that will probably allow VFR for awhile later this afternoon. A return to MVFR is forecast late in the period in lingering low level moisture behind the low. Wind direction will vary with respect to location of the low as it lifts through Ohio. CVG and LUK will see a shift from south to west. Northern sites ILN DAY CMH and LCK will see direction change from east to southeast with gusts to 20 knots before the shift to west occurs. OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions and gusty winds likely Monday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Coniglio

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