Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 230003 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 803 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low pressure system will lift out of the lower Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley bringing rain chances to the region through the first part of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As a closed upper level low moves slowly east in the southern plains today, the region has been affected by some mid and high clouds. The cirrus has been in various states of opacity, especially across the north. This has added a level of complexity to the forecast that wasn`t expected. The low will continue to travel east overnight. High clouds will gradually be on the increase after 00Z. A developing low level jet on the eastern side of the low will increase convergence and will enhance shower development. Rain band will reach the far southwest counties in the fa, just as the period ends. Lows tonight are expected to range from the lower 40s in the far nw to the lower 50s in nrn KY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The upper low and associated rain band will lift north during the day on Monday. Went with likely PoPs for pretty much the entire area, but this may need to be bumped up depending how solid the band of rain band is. The morning hours will probably be dry for much of the northern part of the fa. Highs will actually be warmer in the north, where the rain is delayed, reaching the mid 60s. Lower 60s are forecast in the south. Monday night the low is still moving northeast but is centered southwest of the region. Upper level lift associated with the low with keeps showers over the region Monday night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... An upper level low will move slowly across the region Tuesday into Tuesday night with an upper level disturbance allowing for additional rain shower chances on Wednesday. There is some slight instability near and south of the Ohio River on Tuesday and therefore have a slight chance of thunder mentioned as well. Cloudy conditions will be present during this time with high temperatures in the 50s to around 60. Temperatures Tuesday night will only drop down into the 40s with cloud cover. Dry conditions are then expected Wednesday night through Thursday night. The GFS is trying to bring a system into the region Thursday night, however went with the slower ECMWF solution which brings this system through Friday afternoon into Friday night. As clouds decrease Wednesday night temperatures will drop into the 30s to around 40. Will have to monitor Wednesday night for frost potential. Temperatures will warm into the upper 50s to middle 60s Thursday and Friday. Dry conditions will then be in place for the weekend both Saturday and Sunday. Went close to the superblend for temperatures with highs in the upper 50s to 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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For the 00Z TAFs, have kept the spirit of the previous 23.12Z issuance with the following changes: 1) delayed onset of precipitation by a few hours in line with latest guidance, particularly higher resolution versions of HRRR/RAP. 2) raised ceilings and visibilities in the morning hours on Monday just a little without changing the fact this will still be a MVFR- likely rain event that pushes from south to north across the terminals on Monday. Maintained dry forecast overnight with only broken mid-high clouds and light northeast flow. Maintained some gusts toward 20kts on Monday as flow backs to easterly. There should be some breaks in the precipitation behind the main arc of rain which shifts south to north through the day. Thus, highest confidence in the TAF forecast is on the arrival of the main rain band, but with lesser confidence behind that /namely the KCVG/KLUK/KDAY/KILN terminals/ in the afternoon into early evening on whether MVFR ceilings will lift and/or scatter out a bit. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings will be possible Monday night into Wednesday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL/Sites NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM... AVIATION...Binau

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