-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 251654
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1254 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Great Lakes will bring dry weather to the
area today. A warming trend will begin by the end of the week, as
an upper level ridge moves east of the region, with precipitation
chances developing by Friday afternoon. Precipitation chances
will continue into Saturday as a warm front pivots north through
the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface high pressure is centered over southern Ontario, with
light ENE flow over the middle Ohio Valley. A few patches of
stratocumulus have been working their way southwestward through
the area, and these should continue to generally erode and
dissipate as the morning progresses. This will leave dry and
mostly clear conditions through the rest of the day, with high
temperatures reaching the upper 50s to mid 60s.

The freeze warning and frost advisory previously in effect have
expired.

Previous discussion >
Northwest flow aloft with surface high pressure building across
the northern Great Lakes into eastern Canada by evening. A band
of strato cumulus clouds have developed in the low level
northeast flow. IR satellite imagery shows this band of clouds
working southwest thru the FA and will only last about 3 hours
at any given location.

As skies clear behind the clouds temperatures will drop with
freezing temperatures likely across the far northern counties
and patchy frost south of this area. Have continued the current
frost/freeze headlines.

After these early morning clouds shift southwest and decrease
expect mostly sunny sky conditions. Highs will moderate a little
but still remain below normal - ranging from the upper 50s north
to the mid 60s south of the Ohio River.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure to continue building off to the east with
mid level ridge building into area overnight into Friday. Expect
some high level clouds to spill into the area overnight. Lows
tonight to range from the upper 30s far north to the
lower/middle 40s south. Can not rule out some patchy frost
across the far north.

Mid level ridge axis to shift east across the area early Friday
with the flow backing late in the day. Isentropic lift to
develop Friday afternoon ahead of a warm front with a chance of
rain showers developing into the west late in the day. Trends
suggest a little later arrival time of rain. High temperatures
to range from near 70 northwest to the upper 70s southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface warm front travels northward through the Ohio Valley Friday
night. Scattered showers expected overnight given the isentropic
lift in place, but not expecting prolonged periods of rainfall at
any particular location. Instability remains pretty meager, so
thunder should be pretty limited.

H5 ridge remains intact through the weekend over the eastern CONUS.
Heat and moisture levels increase underneath this ridge with
persistent southerly flow, creating a more unstable air mass. While
global models don`t show much in the way of pcpn, some diurnal
showers/storms may be possible. Will have to see how CAMs start
resolving PoPs in this air mass. High temperatures in the upper 70s
to middle 80s expected over the weekend, along with breezy
conditions during the daytime as gusts of 25-35 mph are possible.

Ridge axis continues to nudge eastward at the start of the next work
week. A shortwave trough will eject through the region on Tuesday,
which will increase chances for showers/storms. A weak cold front
moves through with this shortwave feature, but temperatures will
quickly rebound back into the middle 70s to around 80 on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A few
cumulus and some high clouds will be in place today, with
generally light ENE winds.

High clouds will begin to move into the area overnight, with
winds remaining below 10 knots. Slightly stronger ESE winds are
expected Friday, with thickening high and eventually mid-level
clouds. After 18Z, there will be chances for rain moving into
the area.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are possible on Saturday.
Thunderstorms are possible Monday night into Tuesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...Hatzos/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...Hatzos