Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 231044 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 644 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the Great Lakes today and remain in control of the weather through Friday, offering dry conditions and continued warm temperatures. A chance of showers and storms will return over the upcoming weekend as moisture increases ahead of the next frontal system. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Surface cold front and scattered showers and thunderstorms have slipped south of ILN/S FA. A band of stratus clouds evident on the RGB fog imagery has developed in the weak northerly low level CAA flow. These clouds will drop south through central Ohio and southern Ohio prior to lifting early this morning. A large mid level ridge will build over the nations mid section allowing northwesterly flow to develop across the Ohio Valley. Surface high pressure will build into the Great Lakes today. Expect to see a good deal of sunshine with only scattered cumulus clouds after early stratus lifts. Temperatures will only be slightly cooler than yda with highs from the upper 70s north to near 80 south. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Surface high pressure to remain in control of our weather building across the Great Lakes tonight into Thursday. Drier airmass in place with any afternoon cumulus clouds quickly giving way to clearing tonight. Expect lows to range from the lower 50s northeast to the upper 50s southwest. The center of the surface high pushes a little east with low level flow veering east to southeast. Expect to see a good amount of sunshine Thursday with temperatures warming up a couple of degrees. Highs on Thursday are expected to range from the lower 80s northwest to the mid 80s southeast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Surface high pressure will be moving east at the start of the period, with humidity increasing in the return flow around the high. Still expect mainly dry weather Friday, though a few showers and thunderstorms could affect southern counties. There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday when cooler air aloft associated with an upper trough will allow for greater instability. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue Sunday through Wednesday in the persistently humid and unstable airmass fed by a long fetch of southerly winds, with instability supported and enhanced by short wave energy circulating around an upper low centered to the south. Warm temperatures are forecast through the period. Highs reaching the mid 80s each day will be about 10 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Low level northerly flow has developed in the wake of a cold front, with high pressure building into the Great Lakes today. Axis of MVFR status clouds which developed across portions of northern Ohio have pushed into portions of central and southern Ohio overnight. These clouds are thickest east of the TAF sites and only expect a brief period of MVFR CIGs at the northern TAF sites early this morning. These MVFR clouds will improve and lift early leaving only scattered VFR cumulus clouds this afternoon. MVFR fog at KLUK will also quickly improve. The scattered cumulus clouds will give way to clearing late in the day. Expect mainly clear skies overnight with fog likely at KLUK valley location. At this time have limited vsby restriction to MVFR but IFR vsbys are not out of the question. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Sunday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...AR

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