Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 211026 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 626 AM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Snow will continue through this morning before beginning to taper off this afternoon. High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the region Thursday and Friday. An approaching low pressure system will bring a mix of rain and snow to the region for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The mid level low appears to be centered just east of CVG early this morning. Widespread snow is continuing to rotate around it with the steadier/heavier bands pivoting down across mainly western portions of our area. It looks like some of the pcpn across our southeast may still be mixing with rain at times, but would expect this to change over to all snow over the next few hours. So far the snow has had a little bit of a tough time accumulating on the warmer ground and there does appear to be some melting still occurring. As a result, most reports across western portions of our area have generally been in the 1.5 to 2 inch range so far. Would expect to see the more steady precipitation persist through mid morning or so before beginning to taper off from the west as the low shifts off to the east. The 00Z models were in good agreement showing the axis of best accumulations in our area extending from the Miami/Whitewater Valleys down into southeast Indiana and far southwest Ohio into some of our western Kentucky counties. Total accumulations will remain difficult due the warm ground. However, we have been slowly cooling both the air temperature and ground temperature so think between now and daybreak we could still see another couple of inches of accumulation possible across our north and west. Once the sun comes up, additional accumulations will become less efficient from mid morning onward. Will go ahead and stick with headlines as they currently stand and try to make some tweaks to total accumulations based on what has already fallen. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Clouds will begin to clear from the west later tonight with mostly sunny skies expected on Thursday as high pressure and a drier airmass begins to build in to the area. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 20s with highs on Thursday ranging from the upper 30s to around 40 in the northeast to the low to mid 40s across the south. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Northwest flow will continue Thursday night into Friday with another upper level disturbance diving southeast towards New York. This will push another cold front through the area Friday morning. This type of weather pattern setup will allow for chilly conditions with highs in the 40s, but plenty of sun as the Ohio Valley remains in strong upper level subsidence or ageostrophic convergence. On Saturday a potent upper level low off the Pacific Northwest coast will bring another wave across the region. The wave will be embedded in a general upper level ridge which will help push the wave southeast of the Ohio Valley (along with a long wave trough axis over the Northeast). Overall, global models have been rather unstable with the strength and path of this wave which is unsurprising given its origin. The idea is that a surface low pressure will form Saturday in Missouri and head towards south/ central Kentucky Sunday morning. During the day Saturday the warm air advection wing/ widespread isentropic upglide will commence across the region. The latest GFS and ECMWF would support all snow for Ohio with northern Kentucky switching between snow and rain. Given the uncertainty though in the eventual track of the shortwave have just broad brushed snowfall totals. Sunday the wave will move east of the area allowing for clearing skies with highs in the upper 40s. On Monday the upper level low that was off the west coast of the United States will push east with mid level riding working in over the Ohio Valley. This means temperatures will be on the rise with the next batch of precipitation moving into the area Tuesday and Wednesday. Confidence here remains low though as the eventual track of the upper level low is uncertain. The GFS and CMC has the front moving through on Wednesday were as the ECMWF has the front washing south across the area on Thursday evening. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Low pressure will continue to push east of the region through this afternoon. This will allow for snow across the area this morning to begin to taper off from west to east as we head into this afternoon. Until then, we will see IFR cigs and vsbys prevail through the first few hours of the TAF period. We should then see a gradual improvement into MVFR this afternoon. High pressure will begin to build in from the west tonight into Thursday with VFR conditions expected through the second half of the TAF period. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Saturday and Saturday night.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ026- 034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-072>074-079>082-088. Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ070- 071-077-078. KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ097>100. Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>096. IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ050- 058-059. Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ066- 073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Haines AVIATION...JGL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.