Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 142351 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 751 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS... As low pressure moves off the east coast, high pressure will envelop the Ohio Valley through Friday. Low pressure will move eastward into the area late on Friday, with precipitation expected heading into the weekend. High pressure and dry air are expected to return on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Snow shower activity has exited the CWA and is rapidly leaving east and out of Ohio. Clearing over the western half of fcst area is topped by some thin cirrus. Some higher AS clouds are evident in nw OH north of metro Dayton, which should also exhibit an eastern movement this evening and track over central OH. Temperatures looked to already have captured a cooler trend given the clearing, although the west winds around 10-15 mph will persist overnight and hamper any significant temperature drops. It does not appear that even sheltered areas would drop off their wind speeds enough for a good shot at some additional radiational cooling tonight. Did not change the min temp forecast tonight but did blend the next several hours with observed values and forecast guidance. Previous discussion: Another shortwave moving SSE out of Michigan will eventually spread another area of low-level clouds into the area, but it is not clear if this will end up as significant sky coverage or not -- currently, this shortwave is not producing widespread clouds near its current position across NE Wisconsin. At least in the models, this wave is better defined in the low levels (925mb-850mb) than at 500mb. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Going into the day on Thursday, the Ohio Valley will be in between two large areas of high pressure -- one centered over the Manitoba/Ontario border, and one centered over Florida. The ILN CWA will be along the ridge between these two areas of high pressure, resulting in dry conditions, and sunny skies (at least after any morning stratocumulus clouds move out of central Ohio). Despite the switch from SW to WNW flow as the surface trough comes through -- the low-level reflection of the trough mentioned in the Near Term AFD section -- temperatures are likely to rise quite a bit through the day, with a gradient developing over the area. Max temps will likely make it into the lower 50s in the far southwestern CWA, where warmer air aloft will be in place, in addition to a full day of sun. Temperatures will likely only reach the lower 40s in central Ohio, where the northwest flow will be a little more prominent by the end of the morning. Precipitation associated with stronger frontogenesis to the west will likely remain outside of the forecast area through Friday morning. Subsidence should keep clear skies over the area through the night, which will lead to another period of cool conditions Thursday night. Combined with weakening winds, radiational cooling conditions will be good, allowing for min temps solidly in the 20s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Period begins on a dry note as a weak surface ridge stretches from the wrn Great Lakes to the srn Appalachians. A H5 low pushes out of the Rockies on Friday, with a surface low developing in response. Models keep overrunning pcpn south of the fa for Friday. However northerly winds behind a backdoor cold front, will hold temperatures down well below normal. Highs will struggle to reach the upper 30s in the north and the mid 40s in nrn KY. H5 low shears out as it moves east Friday night. The models have trended farther north with the pcpn, now bringing it across the bulk of the fa. Thermal profiles have changed from yesterday as well, as an above freezing H8 warm nose lifts across the region. Surface temperatures fall below freezing Saturday morning, setting up the chance of some freezing rain. Will throw a mention in the HWO. Temperatures warm Saturday into the upper 30s to upper 40s bringing an end to the freezing rain chances and changing any lingering pcpn to liquid rain. High pressure to build in for late Saturday night into Sunday. Highs Sunday will range in the 50s. Next system will kick out of the west on Monday. Models spread pcpn across the region Monday ahead of a sheared upper shortwave. Precipitation Monday should fall as rain, as morning lows will be above freezing and temperatures will rise into mid 40s in the north and the mid 50s in the south. Some snow could mix into the northwest Monday night into Tuesday morning as colder air works in on the backside of the system. Models are showing a spread of solutions for pcpn on Tuesday, so held a chance in the forecast. The GFS and Canadian bring high pressure in for Wednesday, while the ECMWF lingers cyclonic flow and pcpn across the Ohio Valley. Trended towards the consensus forecast. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with generally clear skies over the region tonight. Eventually, low end VFR clouds will move into the area, with just a slight chance for a MVFR cig tomorrow morning at Columbus. West winds gusting to 20 knots or better will diminish to 10-15 knots as they back to the SW tonight. Winds tomorrow will be similar to today with WNW gusts to 20 knots. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible at times from Saturday through Sunday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hatzos NEAR TERM...Franks SHORT TERM...Hatzos LONG TERM...Sites AVIATION...Franks is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.