Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000 FXUS63 KILX 070202 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 802 PM CST Sat Mar 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 306 PM CST Sat Mar 6 2021 Quiet and mild weather is expected through the remainder of the weekend into next week. High temperatures will range from the 50s to 60s the next few days, with some locations possibly nearing 70 by Wednesday. The next chance for precipitation arrives on Wednesday with chances lingering through the end of the week. Heavy rainfall is possible across central Illinois. && .UPDATE... Issued at 754 PM CST Sat Mar 6 2021 High pressure is centered over the Great Lakes this evening with ridging extending across the mid Mississippi Valley. Skies have cleared out this evening and expect that to remain the case overnight with temps likely to radiate down towards the dew points which currently are in the mid to upper 20s across most of the area. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) ISSUED AT 306 PM CST Sat Mar 6 2021 Surface high pressure remains situated over the region this afternoon, with high temperatures sitting in the low to mid 50s as of 3 PM. Mid-level clouds tied to a weak upper shortwave sliding across western Illinois early this afternoon remain present across parts of the area. These will continue to spread south with the wave as subsidence works to clear these out in the next few hours. Overnight lows tonight will be seasonable with values ranging from the upper 20s to low 30s. Even warmer temperatures are expected on Sunday, though cloud cover will be a bit more common for most. Upper ridging deamplifies and spills into the Great Lakes Region as a shortwave trough rolls across the northern Plains. Surface high pressure pushes a little further east, setting up southerly return flow. Aforementioned upper wave will lift a warm front through the area tomorrow, increasing moisture/WAA and prompting cloud development. Clouds should exit by later in the day with high temperatures expected to be in upper 50s to middle 60s. Overnight lows on Monday will be milder. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) ISSUED AT 306 PM CST Sat Mar 6 2021 Dry and warm weather persists into the new week as we remain under the influence of southwest flow. Temperatures will gradually warm each day with highs on Monday and Tuesday expected to be in the 60s, and some areas likely nearing 70 on Wednesday. Attention then turns to the middle to end of the new week as a system brings the potential for heavy rainfall. A Pacific trough of low pressure will approach the west coast of the US by the middle of the week, ejecting a few shortwaves further inland through the end of next week into next weekend. A surface low will develop east of the Rockies and lift into the Upper Midwest Tuesday night into Wednesday, pulling in precipitable waters of around 1.00". A warm front will lift through the area come Wednesday, spreading rain showers in along it. The system will quickly lift into the Great Lakes Region Wednesday night into Thursday, draping a cold front across the area as it does so, resulting in periods of rain and some storms. The potential for stronger storms looks limited at this time due to little instability to work with. The front is then expected to stall out somewhere across the Midwest Thursday into Friday as surface high pressure centered over the Atlantic Ocean blocks it from progressing further south and east, resulting in lingering periods of rain and some storms Thursday night into Friday. It is important to note that there are still are some differences on exactly where this front will stall out. The ECMWF has it stalling out further south of the area than the operational GFS that has it stalling out over the CWA. This will greatly influence where and how much precipitation falls across central Illinois. Albeit, it will still be a wet period. Models diverge going into next weekend. The large-scale upper trough looks to spin up a dynamic system over the southern Plains sometime next weekend. The GFS and ECMWF have big differences with the timing, track, and strength of this system, though both do indicate additional rain chances across the local area this weekend or early next weekend. Let the blend handle this timeframe due to the stark differences. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 531 PM CST Sat Mar 6 2021 High pressure will slide east across the Great Lakes through the period. Winds will gradually veer around the dial as this occurs. NW winds in place this afternoon will become light NE or variable overnight, then set up out of the SE or S on Sunday. VFR conditions will prevail through the period with only mid and high clouds expected. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Deubelbeiss SYNOPSIS...NMB SHORT TERM...NMB LONG TERM...NMB AVIATION...Deubelbeiss

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