Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 011125 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
525 AM CST Fri Mar 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

Issued at 422 AM CST Fri Mar 1 2024

Today through late next week...

Through this weekend (Friday-Sunday):

Early this morning, RAP/synoptic/water vapor analysis indicates
upper low ejecting across western MO, while 590DM H5 upper high
remains parked across the Bay of Campeche, southern Gulf of Mexico &
Caribbean Sea to the Bahamas. Broad southwesterly flow/isentropic
ascent remains on the northwestern periphery of this ridge across
the southern Plains to Gulf Coast states. Shortwave is progged to
swing east-northeast into the Mid-MS Valley to Mid-West this
evening & into the northeast CONUS by late weekend.

Scattered to numerous rain showers persist across the region, with
a good portion focused across the Gulf Coast region, along a
developing sfc low/stationary frontal zone & shortwave ascent to the
north, with a gap in rain coverage in the Natchez Trace corridor.
Rain totals have been most focused northwest of the Natchez
Trace. Highest potential for additional totals of three quarters
to >1 inch of rain will persist southeast of the Natchez Trace to
I-59 corridor. Highs today will be seasonably cool in the upper
50s north of I-20 to low 60s to the south. Lows overnight will
more seasonable in the mid-upper 40s north to low 50s southeast of
the Natchez Trace corridor under widespread stratus & drizzle.
There are increasing signals of dense fog potential overnight &
with persistent low-level boundary layer moisture, there looks to
be enough potential for patchy fog areawide & some patchy dense
fog potential. With this being more WAA induced rather than
radiative & widespread stratus, there are some concerns that it
would be more stratus build-down development. With that being the
case, cold ground would favor more potential. Holding off
introduction in the HWO graphics but will let the day shift

In the wake of shortwave ascent, expect brief reprieve from rain
chances for most of the weekend. Low level flow will only briefly
be variable, but southerly return flow of warmth & humidity will
climb back up. Seasonable temps are expected, with highs warming
in the low-upper 70s by late weekend & lows in the mid 40s north
to low 50s southeast to mid 50s by late weekend, some 5-10 degrees
F above normal.

Next week (Monday-Thursday):

Longwave trough energy will be diving into the Pacific Northwest,
Intermountain West to northern Plains by early week, with a closed
low swinging into southern Canada. 990-995mb sfc low will develop
across south-central Canada, with a broad frontal zone draped to the
southwest across the Great Lakes, Mid-West to central Plains. Active
split flow/subtropical jet will keep perturbed flow & the Gulf Coast
states under active weather pattern through late next week. Frontal
zone/shortwave trough will bring increased moist ascent & large
fetch of warmth & moisture, with PWs climbing above the 90th
percentile to near daily max early to mid-week. This supports
increased coverage of scattered showers & storm development
across the region both Monday & especially Tuesday. Seasonably
warm conditions are expected highs in the low-mid 70s, while lows
extremely seasonably warm in the upper 50s to low 60s, some +15
degrees F above normal. Rain totals could be heavy at times, but
the heaviest focus looks to be mostly on Tuesday. Rain
totals for early next week could exceed 2-3 inches, especially
southeast of the Natchez Trace & into the Pine Belt & I-59
corridors. With lapse rates (i.e. vertical totals in the 26-28
degrees C) & 0-3km around 20-30kts/0-6km mean bulk shear around
the 30-40kt, some stronger storms remain possible next Monday-
Tuesday. There isn`t enough focused timeframe/confidence to
mention any severe or flooding in the HWO graphics at this time.
There will be a brief reprieve in coverage of rain & storm mid-
week, before another series of rain/storms & potential organized
storm systems may be possible late next week. /DC/


(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 AM CST Fri Mar 1 2024

A mix of mainly MVFR/IFR flight categories will plague area TAF
sites through the 12Z forecast package. This is primarily due to
low stratus across the area. However, visibilities could also be
reduced by scattered to numerous showers across the area this
morning into this afternoon. While the low stratus remains over
the area late tonight, patchy fog developing across the region
early Saturday morning could again result in visibility
restrictions. Winds today will have an easterly component between
3-8 knots. /19/


Jackson       58  51  73  56 /  90  10   0   0
Meridian      59  51  73  53 / 100  20   0   0
Vicksburg     59  48  74  55 /  70   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   63  54  73  56 /  90  10  10   0
Natchez       59  49  74  58 /  60   0   0   0
Greenville    57  46  70  54 /  30   0   0   0
Greenwood     57  49  73  55 /  70   0   0   0




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