591
FXUS64 KJAN 112318 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
518 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - A low pressure system crossing the forecast area this weekend
    will bring breezy winds Saturday and showers and thunderstorms
    Saturday night into Sunday morning.

  - Temperatures will remain above normal through the middle of
    next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1248 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Taken on the average, the upper-level weather pattern through the
middle of next week will feature a ridge over the central US. But
that`s the average. A low pressure system over the West Coast today
will get swing across the Southern US Saturday through Sunday and
bring likely showers and thunderstorms as it passes through our
region. Dew points in the 60s will be possible ahead of the system,
but the current timing is uncertain whether enough instability will
overspread our forecast area for an organized severe weather threat.
At this time, it appears that the best environment for severe storm
development would be to our west in the ArkLaTex region Saturday
afternoon. Storms would be steered east into our forecast area
overnight - entering northeast Louisiana probably after dark (9PM
Saturday to midnight) and then move eastward. Deep-layer shear of 50-
60 kts will be adequate for organizing storms, but again instability
may help dictate coverage of storm threat. We will continue to
monitor trends in guidance for severe storm threat. Flooding threat
looks minimal, as the guidance has trended toward a progressive wave
and spreading out average rainfall amounts into the 1 to 2 inch
range and isolated amounts up to around 3 inches.

The system`s cold front will knock temperatures down a few degrees
for Sunday/Monday, but the rebounding influence of the ridge and
lack of substantial polar connection will see temps back in the mid
70s by Tuesday. With overnight lows in the 40s, temps will generally
be about 10-15 degrees above average to start the second half of
February. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 518 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

A cold front continues to push through the area late this
afternoon, with winds now near N at all locations. However,
scattered SHRA lingers across south MS and central LA along with a
lingering MVFR cloud deck in some areas. MVFR stratus should shift
southward through the night, with VFR conditions returning to all
areas by daybreak. In addition, SHRA will end by early this
evening. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       45  69  48  73 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      42  68  43  71 /  10   0   0   0
Vicksburg     44  70  49  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   51  73  50  75 /  10   0   0  10
Natchez       50  73  53  78 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    39  63  44  68 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     40  66  44  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

NF/DL