Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 280311
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
911 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2022

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 851 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2022

After a very beautiful day, a somewhat chilly night is in store
for the region. All of the rain has exited to the east and dry
weather will prevail through tonight and into tomorrow. A
shortwave trough will swing across the region overnight, which
will reinforce a little bit of cooler, drier air over the region.
This will help keep conditions clear and allow temperatures to
drop into the mid 40s overnight. Today`s gusty winds have also
diminished this evening and look for winds to be around 5mph or
less. Going forecast is in good shape with only minor adjustments
needed to account for going trends. /28/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2022

Tonight and Tomorrow...

Current forecast remains mostly on track as model guidance
highlights a closed low continuing to track northeast towards the
Ohio River Valley. With this low expected to push to the northeast,
this should allow for an approaching upper-level shortwave trough
to hover over the region by late evening. The introduction of this
shortwave trough should allow for a slightly colder airmass to enter
the region which could allow for overnight temperatures to dip into
the upper 40s across the CWA. A few areas along and south of the I-
20 corridor could see some patchy fog beginning early Monday
morning. Aside from that, the weather looks to remain quiet through
tomorrow with afternoon temperatures expected to peak in the 60s. /CRJ/

Next week (Monday night-next Saturday)...

Early-midweek (Mon night-Sat):

A strong synoptic jet of 80-90kts @ 500mb & +130kts @ 300mb is
expected to be diving into the Pacific NW on Mon night & downstream
jet streak intensifying into the central Plains on Tues. As the mean
trough digs & amplifies & mid-level ridge strengthens over the
Caribbean, a powerful cold frontal system will take shape on the lee
side of the Rockies. 995mb sfc low will be developing early Tues
over the central Plains & ejecting NE into the Great Lakes region by
midweek on Wed. At the sfc, a fast moving cold front remains on
track to move into the ArkLaTex late Tues & sweep SE through the
region by Wed aftn. Overall synoptic environment looks very
favorable, with 500mb heights trended in better zone. Even with more
subtle height falls & forcing well off to the NW, there remains
strong pressure gradient for strong low-level jet to develop across
the region. Favorable juxtaposition of kinematics & anomalous thermo
profiles for this time of the year (i.e. strong clockwise curving
hodographs, +300-400m/s2 SRH, mean layer bulk shear around 40-50kts
in the lowest 0-1km/0-3km & near 50-60kts in the 0-6km layer &
around 1000 J/KG MLCAPE, CWASP around 80 & SREF sig tor ingredients
in the 45-60 range in W-NW ArkLaMiss Delta) support all modes of
severe weather. This could be a long duration event as warm
advection showers into Tues aftn could develop early along N Gulf
Coast late Tues aftn & spread to the E-NE. Some potential better sfc
frontal forcing are expected into the evening & overnight hours,
with global models, including the NAM, more aggressive on QPF
stripes, indicative of supercell potential into the evening hours.
Timing will mainly be late Tues aftn through early Wednesday but
some veering will occur as the front moves in. Kept the ongoing
"Enhanced" ongoing across west of I-55 corridor & no changes are
needed at this time, but added mention for some strong tornadoes
possible in this area. In addition, some potential for some heavy
downpours/localized flash flooding are possible. Added flash
flooding to the HWO/graphics for Tues aftn through Wed morning. This
potential weather event remains a few days away, & the timing &
impacts will likely be adjusted in later forecasts. Strong WAA will
help highs warm near-above normal into low-mid 70s Tues, while above
normal into low to mid 50s-low 60s for lows Tues night. Expect the
front to quickly move through Wed, ushering in dry air, sfc ridging
& helping clearing rain & storms/clouds out of the area into Wed
aftn.

Late week-early weekend (Thurs-Sat): Much quieter pattern is
anticipated into late week. Mid-level ridge axis & sfc high pressure
will build through, with PWs around a quarter of an inch Thurs. As
sfc-low level ridge builds E, expect some WAA & moisture in some
return flow, helping highs warm somewhat & clouds increase by late
week. Some increased isentropic ascent/frontal zone to the NW will
combine with PWs increasing from around an inch Fri to an inch & a
quarter PWs Sat for some isolated to scattered showers to developing
the NW portions of the area by Fri-Sat. Mid-level ridge will build
over the central Gulf of Mexico, helping rain chances lift to N on
Sat. Highs will be below climo in the mid-upper 50s Thurs & near
normal Fri into the low 60s N of I-20 to upper 60s to the S. Lows
will be chilly Thurs & Fri morning near freezing along & N of the I-
20 corridor Thurs morning & mid-upper 30s Fri morning while warmer
into the mid 40s NE to near 50 degrees elsewhere Sat morning. Highs
will moderate into the upper 60s N to low-mid 70s to the S into
the weekend. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2022

VFR conditions are prevailing today with much better flying
conditions across the region. Winds that were gusty today will
continue to diminish this evening and most locations will see
sustained speeds around 5-10kts and minimal gusts. There looks to
be potentially some flight restrictions around daybreak with
potential for MVFR to some LIFR ceiling and vis restrictions. Will
continue to monitor in future forecasts. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       44  66  50  74 /   0   0   0  80
Meridian      44  67  48  72 /   0   0   0  60
Vicksburg     44  65  49  75 /   0   0   0  90
Hattiesburg   48  72  51  76 /   0   0   0  70
Natchez       44  67  52  75 /   0   0   0  90
Greenville    44  62  46  71 /   0   0   0  90
Greenwood     45  63  48  72 /   0   0   0  90

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

JAN/JAN/JAN


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