241
FXUS64 KJAN 220843
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
343 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

Today and Tonight: continued dry through the period with a lighter
wind and a warming trend. Early morning surface analysis had a
>1020mb high centered over the Florida peninsula and ridging west
across the northern Gulf. This ridge will change little through
tonight and serve to gradually increase low level moisture through
tonight. A developing low pressure system to the west will actually
increase the pressure gradient tonight and help maintain a southerly
flow tonight. The 00Z Sat JAN sounding had a PWAT near a quarter
inch. PWATs are expected to be back to near one inch by sunrise
Sunday. This surface ridging combined with near zonal flow aloft
through tonight will help temperatures top out warmer than normal
this afternoon. The increase in low level moisture, southerly wind
and cloud cover tonight will help temperatures bottom out above
normal Sunday morning. /22/

Sunday...

The forecast for the extended period remains the same with a few
minimal adjustments made to the overall forecast. Looking ahead
into Sunday, guidance continues to highlight a closed low hovering
over the Northern Plains. By Sunday afternoon, this closed low will
shift east towards the Great Lakes Region. At the same time, the
associated cold front across the Southern Plains will track east
into the western portions of our CWA as clouds start to build from
the west. Strong to severe storms will develop ahead of this cold
front due to sufficient instability, some mid-level lapse rates,
deep layer wind shear, and dewpoints in the low 60s across our
forecast area.

Model consensus from both the GFS and the Euro are in better
agreement with each other regarding the evolution of this system.
There is still some inconsistencies that remain with both the GFS
and Euro regarding the timing of this storm system with the Euro
guidance being slightly faster compared to the GFS. The timing of
this system will be better refined in our HWO graphics as we get
closer to Sunday. No changes were made to the severe graphic for
Sunday and portions of north central MS, northwest MS, portions of
southeast Arkansas, and several of our northeast Louisiana are still
under a "Slight Risk" (2 out of 5) for severe storms. Primary
concerns will be damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to the
size of golf balls. A brief spin-up tornado cannot be ruled out.
Likewise, the "Marginal Risk" (1 out of 5) of isolated severe storms
exists southeast of this area, down to essentially a Meridian to
Brookhaven line. For this area, damaging wind gusts and hail up to
quarter size will be possible. Further south of this area near the
Gulf, areas along and south of the I-59 corridor will see strong/sub-
severe t-storms. Trends will continued to be monitored as we get
closer so be sure to check back for updates as the forecast
progresses.

Monday through the weekend...

Rain showers will linger across the southeast and south central
Mississippi Monday morning as the cold front continues to drag south
across our CWA. Cooler and drier conditions will occur Monday
afternoon as the sfc high across the north Texas shifts east across
our forecast area and the aforementioned cold front continues to push
south out of southeast MS and towards the Gulf. Quiet conditions
will continue heading into Tuesday as temperatures and moisture will
begin to increase over the southeast region. Dry and quiet weather
conditions will continue looking ahead into Wednesday as a 1024mb
high pressure system hovering over the Central Plains tracks
southward towards the southeast CONUS. This sfc high will remain
over the southeast region by Thursday with afternoon highs peaking
in the upper 70s areawide. Several areas along and south of Hwy 84
could see highs peak in the low 80s. Future guidance does start to
show a 1000mb sfc low over the Northern Plains on Friday as the
aforementioned sfc high starts to track eastward towards the
Carolinas. Storm chances will begin to increase across our forecast
area heading into the weekend. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

VFR conditions wl prevail through the TAF period. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       76  54  78  58 /   0   0  60 100
Meridian      76  50  80  58 /   0   0  30  90
Vicksburg     77  55  79  58 /   0   0  80  90
Hattiesburg   79  51  82  60 /   0   0  10  70
Natchez       77  55  77  60 /   0   0  60  90
Greenville    74  55  76  53 /   0   0  90  90
Greenwood     74  55  77  54 /   0   0  90  90

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/CR/22