Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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000 FXUS62 KJAX 131910 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 310 PM EDT Thu May 13 2021 .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
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An upper level trough over extends from the Great lakes to the Big Bend with a surface cold front extending from the Gulf of Mexico, across central Florida and into the Atlantic. The front is proving to be the focusing mechanism for today`s rain with the upper trough driving the rain shield eastward. Now with the trough axis approaching the region the cloud shield is beginning to be driven southward toward the central Florida peninsula. This trend should continue overnight with the rain moving south and offshore. Some light fog is possible in inland areas that saw more significant rainfall today, but overall a drying trend tonight. .SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]... Eastern CONUS trough will shift off of the seaboard late Friday as high pressure and drier air spill southward into the region this weekend. As a result, west-northwesterly flow aloft will prevail over the southeastern states. A gradual warming trend will occur as heights rise aloft and low-level thicknesses increase. High temps will be in the mid 70s coast to lower 80s well inland Saturday, then upper 70s coast to mid 80s well inland on Sunday. Sprawled surface ridge centered over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys will continue to wedge down the southeastern seaboard through Saturday, keeping a tight pressure gradient in place. Windy conditions will continue at coastal locations through Saturday period, with prevailing wind speeds remaining in the 20-25 mph range with frequent gusts of 30-35 mph. Fair skies will prevail inland. Winds will decouple after sunset at inland locations on Friday and Saturday nights, allowing lows to fall to the lower 50s throughout inland southeast GA and the northern Suwannee Valley. Windy conditions at the coast will keep lows in the low to mid 60s. The center of the expansive surface ridge will shift off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday, allowing low level flow to veer easterly. .LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]... Flow aloft will be zonal across the southeastern states through Tuesday, with ridging aloft beginning to build over our area towards midweek as closed troughing over the Desert Southwest emerges over the Southern Plains. Breezy easterly winds will continue at coastal locations throughout the period as surface ridging strengthens near Bermuda, keeping a rather tight local pressure gradient in place. Low level moisture may increase enough for a priming of the lower atmosphere Tuesday with recovering moisture levels with model blends indicating isolated to widely scattered POPs Wednesday and Thursday. An isolated afternoon thunderstorm cannot be ruled out along the inland-moving Atlantic sea breeze by Wednesday afternoon. Highs will climb to the mid to upper 80s along the I-75 corridor on Monday and will continue to climb by a degree or two each day, reaching the lower 90s by midweek. A fairly dry air mass will remain in place through at least Monday, with lows moderating to the low and mid 60s by midweek with some coastal areas having minimums warming to near 70 towards midweek time-frame.
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&& .AVIATION... [Through 18Z Friday] As rainfall continues to taper off across the region all CIGS have lifted to IFR across the NE FL TAF sites and to MVFR at SSI. This improving trend will slowly continue late this afternoon and evening with VFR conds expected at SSI by 22Z, then around 00Z at the JAX metro TAF sites, by 02Z at GNV, then the N-NE flow is expected to hold onto some lower MVFR CIGS at SGJ until 04Z then becoming VFR during the overnight hours. For now have continued to leave any significant fog out of the inland TAF sites as there should be drier airmass and just enough wind push south through the region during the overnight hours. Mainly VFR conds are expected for Friday in the 12-18Z period with increasing NE winds at 12-16 knots gusts to 20-24 knots in the 14-18z time frame with highest winds at the Atlc Coast. && .MARINE...
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The pressure gradient between high pressure over the Great Lakes States and Mid-Atlantic and lower pressure over The Bahamas will maintain Small Craft Advisory conditions across our coastal waters through Saturday morning. Winds will begin to relax on Friday but seas will take some time to subside. As we move into Saturday the ridge will be positioned a bit further south with the strongest northeast flow more oriented toward south and central Florida. Conditions will be significantly better on Sunday and Monday with the high centered near Cape Hatteras-Virginia Beach. The next cold front will move through on Wednesday with Small Craft Advisory conditions returning to the waters. Rip Currents: High rip current risk today through Friday as strong northeast winds continue producing rough surf with breakers up to 6 feet.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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A drier air mass is beginning to filter into the northern areas and will continue to drop south through Friday. On Friday and into Saturday inland areas will see gusty northeasterly transport winds which will generate significant dispersion values at inland locations on both afternoons. Minimum relative humidity values are still expected to drop to critical/near critical values on Saturday afternoon across inland areas.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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AMG 50 77 50 79 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 SSI 60 73 62 77 65 / 0 10 0 0 0 JAX 55 76 59 78 61 / 0 20 0 0 0 SGJ 61 76 64 77 65 / 10 20 10 0 0 GNV 54 81 55 81 57 / 0 10 0 0 0 OCF 57 83 59 84 60 / 0 10 0 0 0
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&& .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal Duval- Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns. GA...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal Camden- Coastal Glynn. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM. &&

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