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988
FXUS62 KJAX 161047
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
547 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Tuesday]

VFR with southerly winds prevail for most of the period. This
morning, a VFR onshore strato-cumulus deck affects coastal TAF
sites. Mid to high clouds increase this afternoon into tonight
ahead of the approaching cold front. Confidence is low at this
time as to the potential for fog develop again tonight due to the
upcoming increase in cloud cover.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [251 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Patchy to areas of fog dissipate across the region after sunrise.
Surface high pressure off the mid-Atlantic moves eastward as warm,
southerly flow over the region causes temperatures to rise well
above climo. Highs will range from the mid 70s across inland
southeast Georgia to the low 80s over central Florida. Clouds
increase tonight ahead of the next cold front approaching the
area. Lows remain above climo ranging from the upper 50s to low
60s.


.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday]...

Tuesday and Tuesday Night...Next cold frontal passage still on
track to enter SE GA by the afternoon hours with numerous showers
and isolated storms expected. The main low and energy further
north with this system will limit the severe weather potential but
a few strong storms with gusty winds is possible. Prior to the
convection expect breezy southwest winds to push Max temps into
the mid to upper 70s for SE GA and into the lower 80s for
Northeast Florida. Cold frontal convection will fade as it pushes
into NE FL during the evening hours as the front slows down with
some lingering showers along the NE FL coastal areas and adjacent
waters into the overnight hours. Clearing skies towards the
morning hours will allow for Min Temps to fall into the 40s inland
and near 50 along the coast.

Record High Maximum Temps for Tuesday December 17th...
JAX 82/2015...GNV 85/1956...AMG 82/1956...SSI 80/1971...CRG 83/2015

Wednesday and Wednesday Night...Skies becoming clear/sunny as High
Pressure builds well Northwest of the region and cold air
advection in Northwest steering flow will hold Max temps below
normal only in the 50s for most of the region and breezy North
winds through the day. High pressure builds north of the region
over the Mid Atlc States and clear skies and light north flow will
set the stage for a light freeze over inland SE GA and the
Suwannee River Valley of North FL with lows near 30 degrees,
otherwise widespread lows in the 30s over other inland areas and
near 40 along the coast as the surface flow becomes N-NE along the
coast. Some patchy frost will be possible but the North flow
around 5 mph through the night will limit frost formation, but the
wind flow will drop wind chills into the upper 20s around sunrise
Thursday Morning for most inland areas.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Sunday]...

Thursday...High pressure builds into the Carolinas and sets up
breezy Northeast flow off the Atlc and expect a slow increase in
low level moisture with some coastal showers possible by Thursday
Night, otherwise temps remaining below normal with highs still in
the 50s for the coast and SE GA and around 60 for NE FL.

Friday/Saturday/Sunday...Rainfall chances increase as a
combination of onshore flow, coastal trof and shortwave energy
pushing across the region in the W-SW flow aloft. Slight chance of
showers on Friday will increase to Chance of Showers on Saturday
and Sunday (30-50%) but the breezy onshore flow will slowly
increase temps back closer to normal values with highs in the 60s
and lows in the 40s/50s.


.MARINE...

High pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast shifts eastward as
southerly winds develop over local waters today. A cold front
moves through on Tuesday bringing showers with embedded
thunderstorms. Strong northerly winds develop behind the front on
Wednesday causing Small Craft Advisory conditions across most of
our local waters. Winds and waves gradually decrease into Friday
as onshore flow develops.

Rip Currents: Low risk today & Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  75  60  76  40  55 /   0  30 100  50   0
SSI  72  61  74  46  56 /   0   0  60  70  10
JAX  77  61  80  46  58 /   0  10  50  70  10
SGJ  77  62  80  49  59 /   0  10  50  60  10
GNV  78  60  80  46  59 /   0  10  50  70  10
OCF  80  61  81  49  61 /   0  10  50  60  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&