Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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000 FXUS62 KJAX 290639 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 139 AM EST Sat Feb 29 2020 ...BREEZY WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS... ...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER GIVEN LOW HUMIDITY & BREEZY WINDS.. ...INLAND FREEZE WATCH TONIGHT I-1O CORRIDOR NORTHWARD... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... A couple of mostly dry `clipper` like cold fronts will move across the local area today from the NW. One front was currently pressing steadily south this hour across SE GA preceded and trailed by a deck of mid clouds with light showers that were dissipating as the system pressed farther south. This front will clear the forecast area through sunrise, with mostly sunny skies to start the day and increasing WNW winds through the morning becoming breezy by noon. Sustained speeds near 15 mph across most areas with gusts of 25-35 mph at times as the pressure gradient increases ahead of the next approaching dry front that will slide offshore of SE Atlantic coast late afternoon/early evening. Surface high pressure over the GOMEX will build east and settle over the local forecast area tonight. Clearing skies, calm winds and a dry low level airmass will bring a light freeze to inland SE GA and our zones along and north of the I-10 corridor of NE FL tonight, including inland Nassau and Duval counties where a freeze watch was issued. Inland frost is likely even outside of the freeze watch area for much of inland NE Florida and a frost advisory may issued later today. Temperatures will continue to trend below normal with highs today in the low/mid 60s. Tonight lows will fall near freezing across inland SE GA and the I-10 corridor, with slight NNE flow develops toward sunrise along the coast where temps will be more mild and range in the upper 30s to near 40 degF. .SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday]... Predominantly clear conditions on Sunday & Monday, with a slight chance for showers over parts of northeast Florida Monday as the effects of high pressure begin to weaken over the region and move offshore to the east, resulting in a shift in the prevailing flow to become more out of the west-southwest bringing in higher moisture levels by Monday. Sunday will be the start of a warming trend which will carry over into next week, with daily high temperatures rising from the mid to upper 60s on Sunday up into the lower to mid 70s on Monday. Overnight low temperatures will see a similar trend with min temps rising from the 40s up into the lower & mid 50s on Monday. .LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]... An approaching trough from out of the west-northwest will lead to strengthening of southwesterly winds on Wednesday ahead of an approaching line of showers and isolated storms. Models continue to differ on the timing of the passage of the front, with the GFS showing the line of convection having moved off to the east by Thursday morning, while the ECMWF forecast doesn`t have the front completing its passage over the forecast area through until late Thursday and nearly Friday. Both models are in concurrence on High pressure settling in over the region by the end of the week, leading to clearing skies and cool temperatures. The warming trend will continue into midweek, ahead of the frontal passage, and then drop down significantly as cold air settles in over the area. High temperatures are expected reach into the 80s for much of the forecast area by Wednesday and then drop down into the 60s by the end of the week. Overnight low temperatures will likewise drop from the upper 50s and lower 60s down into the 40s, going into the weekend. && .AVIATION... [Through 06Z Sunday] VFR conditions through forecast period. A couple of dry cold fronts will move across the terminals, one early this morning with a batch of generally mid level clouds and another this afternoon with another batch of mainly mid clouds. Main aviation impact today will be developing gusty NW winds by mid-late morning with sustained speeds 12-15 kts and gusts up to 25 kts by midday. Winds decrease below 5 kts inland this evening after 00z and near calm overnight with winds toward the coast veering NNW to NNE early Sun morning ranging near 4-6 kts at SSI and SGJ. && .MARINE... A couple of mostly dry cold fronts will move southward across the local waters today and tonight with elevated offshore winds. Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions are expected for the near shore waters today due to WNW winds 15-20 kts with Small Craft Advisory (SCA) headline for the outer waters where winds were increasing to 20-25 kts with gusts near 30 kts trailing the first cold front this morning. Winds will remain elevated through today, then begin to decrease tonight as high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will build east and over the local waters tonight. The ridge builds east of the local coast Sunday into Monday. Southerly winds increase Monday night and remain elevated through Wednesday between the departing high to the east and the next cold front approaching from the west with a return of SCEC conditions expected at this time for the outer waters. Rip Currents: Low risk today & Sunday for all beaches. && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire danger today due to low humidity falling into the 25-30% range, breezy NW winds 15 mph gusting to 25-35 mph at times and very high dispersion near 100 units. Given elevated fuel moisture content, red flag conditions are not expected today, but certainly a `watch out` day given other critical fire weather parameters. && .HYDROLOGY... Moderate river flooding continued along the Altamaha and Ocmulgee Rivers. Minor flooding continued along portions of the Satilla, Alabaha and Little Satilla Rivers. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 61 31 64 41 72 / 0 0 0 0 20 SSI 59 38 60 48 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 JAX 63 34 65 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 SGJ 63 39 63 49 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 GNV 65 34 67 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 OCF 64 34 68 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for Baker- Hamilton-Inland Duval-Inland Nassau-Northern Columbia- Southern Columbia-Suwannee. GA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for Appling-Atkinson-Bacon-Brantley-Clinch-Coffee-Echols-Inland Camden-Inland Glynn-Jeff Davis-Northeastern Charlton- Northern Ware-Pierce-Southern Ware-Wayne-Western Charlton. AM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM. && is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.