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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KJAX 290532
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
132 AM EDT Mon May 29 2023

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023

Added patchy fog, due to the combination of light winds, low
level moisture and clear skies. Otherwise, current forecast on
track.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(through Tonight)
Issued at 314 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023

Dry weather and gradually thinning low level clouds from WSW to
ENE is expected into the evening as wrap-around moisture from the
surface low near the Carolina coast continues to shift farther
northeast. Dry, cool and stable WNW flow between the departing low
to the NE and a weak surface ridge building eastward across the
central Gulf Coast will enable temps to fall into the 60s by
midnight.

There is a low chance of patchy ground fog after midnight (SREF
probability < 5%), especially near the Altamaha River basin and
across our north-central FL zones where a few wake troughs will
linger and moisture could pool toward sunrise. Confidence of the
fog is not high enough to include in the forecast at this time
with some low level clouds approaching SE GA with the weak trough
and some high clouds increasing from the SW across FL after
midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 314 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023

Prevailing dry weather with a warming trend is expected this
period as weak surface high pressure builds over north Florida.
Expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with lingering low
level moisture near 850 mb sparking some diurnally enhanced
cumulus each day. Monday, a wake trough slides southward across SE
GA which could spark a few sprinkles mainly north of I-10 in the
afternoon and evening as a mid/upper level trough moves overhead.
A dry, stable layer between 700-500 mb will continue to limit rain
potential and continued with only 10% chance of pops. The diffuse
surface trough edges south across north Florida Tuesday but with
continued dry mid level continued with rain chance < 10%.

Temperatures warm further as low level winds become more WSW and
highs moderate back into the mid/upper 80s inland. An east coast
sea breeze is expected each day, keeping coastal locales a few
degrees cooler. Drier air over inland areas will enable lows to
still fall near to a few deg below climo Mon night in the low 60s
to the mid/upper 60s toward the Atlantic coast. The return on
onshore flow late Tue into Tue night will increase moisture and
moderate min temps back to near climo values in the mid/upper 60s
inland to low 70s coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 314 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023

Wed...Mean layer moisture increases from the south as an upper
level trough deepens across the western GOMEX. This increase in
moisture combined with the lingering frontal zone and sea breeze
convergence will increase diurnally driven rain chances as onshore
flow develops and brings the best chance of afternoon
showers/isolated t`storms inland toward the I-75 corridor.

Thu-Sun...A return to a wet pattern and cooler temperatures given
increased cloud cover and precipitation as an unseasonably deep
upper level short wave trough carves out across the central GOMEX
and edges slowly eastward through Saturday inducing a broad
surface low across the eastern GOMEX that will drift toward the
FL peninsula into the weekend. PWATs are expected to range from
above normal near 1.8 to 2 inches across north FL to near normal
in the 1.3 to 1.5 inch range across SE GA. In the lower levels,
breezy easterly flow persists as WSW forcing aloft increases,
increasing lift across the local area. The best chances of
rainfall (50-70%) will focus across NE FL this period with
decreasing rain chances northward across SE GA (30-50%). The
potential for locally heavy rainfall increases Fri-Sat as
isentropic lift increases with the approach of the surface low
and the high to the north wedges farther southward across GA, with
training bands potentially impacting coastal areas. There remain
forecast model inconsistencies with how fast the system moves
eastward Sat into Sun and enables drier air to infiltrate into the
area from the west and tapering off rainfall potential. Consensus
guidance indicates a general downward trend in rain chances late
Sat in Sun. The main hazard this period will be the localized
flooding rainfall potential, but a few strong to severe storms
will also be possible especially across our north-central FL
zones, but the severe threat will ultimately depend on the
resultant surface low track. Coastal hazards including

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 124 AM EDT Mon May 29 2023

Light winds and cooling boundary layer, should still likely be
enough to support MVFR VSBYS at GNV/VQQ this morning between
8-12Z, otherwise expect VFR conds through the morning hours with
increasing high clouds from the Gulf of Mexico. Diurnal heating
will trigger an East Coast sea breeze that will move slowly inland
and shift winds to SE at 8-12 knots in the 18-21Z time frame at
SSI/SGJ/CRG/JAX along with enough mid level moisture for cloud
decks to develop around 7000 ft or so through the late afternoon
hours, but not enough moisture for any rainfall. After 00Z winds
diminish to 3-6 knots along with some lingering SCT/BKN mid and
high clouds through the end of the period at VFR levels.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023

Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions due to combined seas of
4-6 ft are headlined for the outer waters

Weak high pressure will build across Florida Monday and Tuesday
as a weak trough slides southward across Georgia. High pressure
will strengthen northeast of the local waters Wednesday as the
surface front settles across south Florida. Thursday and Friday
a stormy weather pattern develops as an area of low pressure forms
in the Gulf of Mexico and drifts eastward through Saturday. As
the Gulf Low approaches south FL late Friday and high pressure
continues NE of the region, the gradient between the two features
will begin to increase onshore (easterly) winds over the local
waters and could see a return to at least Small Craft Exercise
Caution conditions Fri/Sat.

Rip Currents: Extended the High Rip Current Risk for NE FL beaches through
Monday due to continued ENE swells near 2 ft, low tides between 1030-1130
am, high beach attendance and recent washouts along the coast. Per
collaboration with other offices, continued a Moderate Rip Current
risk for SE GA beaches Monday at this time. An elevated rip current
risk is expected through much of the upcoming week as onshore flow
develops and persists Tuesday into the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023

High pressure will build over north Florida Monday as a weak front
slides southward across GA. There is a very low chance (<10%) of
light afternoon sprinkles across SE GA Tuesday afternoon,
otherwise dry conditions will prevail with minimum humidity fall
into the 30-40% range both days across inland areas. Light WSW
winds will prevail for inland areas while the east coast sea
breeze develops and moves inland each afternoon trailed by ESE
winds. Much warmer temperatures and elevated transport winds on
Monday will create very high dispersion (over 80 units) near and
north of the I-10 corridor, including over the Okefenokee NWR. A
return to a much wetter pattern is expected Thursday through
Saturday, with most wetting rainfall across north-central Florida.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
AMG  62  88  66  88 /  10  10   0  30
SSI  68  86  71  85 /  10   0   0  10
JAX  64  89  68  88 /  10  10   0  20
SGJ  67  87  70  85 /  10   0   0  20
GNV  63  91  66  89 /   0  10   0  30
OCF  63  91  67  90 /   0  10  10  40
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-133-
     138.

GA...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     GAZ154-166.

AM...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

$$