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000
FXUS62 KJAX 100655
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
255 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Fairly high precipitable water values expected across SE GA and NE FL
today with values in the 1.9 to 2.1 inch range inland locations with
coastal locations slightly higher in the 2.0 to 2.2 inch range. Our
region will be between a GOMEX ridge and TS Fay drifting north-northeast
along the mid Atlantic coast a deep northwest steering flow is expected
once again today this pattern will yield scattered to numerous afternoon
and early evening convection across the region. Stable warm mid levels
(500 mb temps -4 to -5 degC), will limit deep convective growth this
afternoon with the greatest convective hazard locally heavy rainfall
of 2-3 inches per hour in some areas under fairly light steering flow
around 10 kts and high PWAT content. High temperatures will generally
range from the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints are expected to remain high
in the mid to upper 70s with fairly deep low level moisture. This
will cause maximum heat index values to get near 109 degrees across
portions of Duval, Baker, Charlton, Nassau, St. Johns counties for
a couple hours this afternoon, and will need to monitor for a possible
heat advisory if the forecast trends any warmer to our advisory threshold
of 110 degree heat index. For tonight, Mostly dry conditions under partly
cloudy skies and muggy lows above climo in the mid 70s. There may some
residual convection during the early evening hours over the coastal
counties.


.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday]...

A frontal boundary pressing in from out of the northwest on Saturday
will bring in widespread showers and storms with less stormy
conditions on Sunday as the drier air mass influences the region
throughout the day and then starting to lift northward Sunday
evening, with an increase in convection overnight. High temperatures
for the weekend will reach into the mid & upper 90s with heat index
values reaching as high as 110. Overnight low temperatures are
expected to be in the lower to mid 70s.


.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

Initially stormy conditions on Monday will give way to less widespread
thunderstorms later in the week as mid to upper level ridging builds
in over the forecast area leading to more sea breeze driven convection
from midweek on. High temperatures for the coming week are expected
to reach into the mid 90s with heat index temperatures being well over
100 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Saturday]

A few showers still linger on through the early morning hours with
increasing convection with potential thunderstorms developing
throughout the day. Winds will shift with the passage of a low
pressure system moving northward, but will settle to being out of
the SW in the evening. Ceilings will be a mix of IFR and MVFR
through the day, with low stratus lifting in the morning and then
dropping as foul weather develops.

&&

.MARINE...

A light southerly flow over the waters will become east to
southeast Friday through Sunday as the Atlantic surface ridge axis
gradually lifts to the north. Winds and seas will remain below
Caution levels through the weekend.

Rip Currents: Low rip current risk.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  94  75  96  73  97 /  50  20  40  10  40
SSI  91  78  93  77  94 /  50  20  40  10  30
JAX  94  76  97  76  97 /  60  30  60  10  40
SGJ  91  76  94  75  94 /  60  50  60  20  50
GNV  92  75  94  74  94 /  70  40  70  10  50
OCF  91  76  93  75  94 /  60  40  70  20  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&