Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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000 FXUS62 KJAX 100655 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 255 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... Fairly high precipitable water values expected across SE GA and NE FL today with values in the 1.9 to 2.1 inch range inland locations with coastal locations slightly higher in the 2.0 to 2.2 inch range. Our region will be between a GOMEX ridge and TS Fay drifting north-northeast along the mid Atlantic coast a deep northwest steering flow is expected once again today this pattern will yield scattered to numerous afternoon and early evening convection across the region. Stable warm mid levels (500 mb temps -4 to -5 degC), will limit deep convective growth this afternoon with the greatest convective hazard locally heavy rainfall of 2-3 inches per hour in some areas under fairly light steering flow around 10 kts and high PWAT content. High temperatures will generally range from the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints are expected to remain high in the mid to upper 70s with fairly deep low level moisture. This will cause maximum heat index values to get near 109 degrees across portions of Duval, Baker, Charlton, Nassau, St. Johns counties for a couple hours this afternoon, and will need to monitor for a possible heat advisory if the forecast trends any warmer to our advisory threshold of 110 degree heat index. For tonight, Mostly dry conditions under partly cloudy skies and muggy lows above climo in the mid 70s. There may some residual convection during the early evening hours over the coastal counties. .SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday]... A frontal boundary pressing in from out of the northwest on Saturday will bring in widespread showers and storms with less stormy conditions on Sunday as the drier air mass influences the region throughout the day and then starting to lift northward Sunday evening, with an increase in convection overnight. High temperatures for the weekend will reach into the mid & upper 90s with heat index values reaching as high as 110. Overnight low temperatures are expected to be in the lower to mid 70s. .LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]... Initially stormy conditions on Monday will give way to less widespread thunderstorms later in the week as mid to upper level ridging builds in over the forecast area leading to more sea breeze driven convection from midweek on. High temperatures for the coming week are expected to reach into the mid 90s with heat index temperatures being well over 100 degrees. && .AVIATION... [Through 06Z Saturday] A few showers still linger on through the early morning hours with increasing convection with potential thunderstorms developing throughout the day. Winds will shift with the passage of a low pressure system moving northward, but will settle to being out of the SW in the evening. Ceilings will be a mix of IFR and MVFR through the day, with low stratus lifting in the morning and then dropping as foul weather develops. && .MARINE... A light southerly flow over the waters will become east to southeast Friday through Sunday as the Atlantic surface ridge axis gradually lifts to the north. Winds and seas will remain below Caution levels through the weekend. Rip Currents: Low rip current risk. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 94 75 96 73 97 / 50 20 40 10 40 SSI 91 78 93 77 94 / 50 20 40 10 30 JAX 94 76 97 76 97 / 60 30 60 10 40 SGJ 91 76 94 75 94 / 60 50 60 20 50 GNV 92 75 94 74 94 / 70 40 70 10 50 OCF 91 76 93 75 94 / 60 40 70 20 60 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&

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