-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
669
FXUS62 KJAX 270135
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
935 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
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Issued at 922 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Diurnal convection got an earlier start for most today, and has
now waned for almost the entire area. The only exception is
lingering convection just north of Glynn County that spawned ahead
of a cold front well north and east of the area. Some of this
convection may clip areas furthest north and east in the CWA
through the next few hours before moving offshore after midnight.
Some patchy to areas of fog will also be possible over inland
areas towards sunrise, especially where some of the heaviest rain
fell today.
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&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 114 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Pattern of diurnal bouts of showers and thunderstorms with
stronger developments forming along the advancing sea breeze
boundaries, outflow boundaries, and along areas of collision
during the afternoon and evening hours will continue through the
weekend. Moist southwesterly flow will have shifted to become more
out of the north and northeast as remnants of the decaying dry
frontal boundary to the north moves east and south over Atlantic
waters and will act in altering the steering flow over the region.
Potential for slow moving storms producing heavy rainfall leading
to localized flooding during this period with PWAT values expected
to range between 1.9 and 2.4 inches during this period. High
temperatures for the weekend will be in the lower to mid 90s for
inland areas and in the upper 80s along the coast. Overnight low
temperatures dropping down into the lower 70s. Heat index values
will rise to be above 100 degrees during this period with a
potential for heat advisory conditions on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 114 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Steering flow is expected to to become less defined next week as
high pressure over the Atlantic lifts off to the north. Daily
bouts of convection will continue through this period with
stronger developments expected to occur along sea breeze and
outflow boundaries and along areas of collision. High temperatures
for the beginning of next week will be close to the seasonal
average with max temps reaching into the upper 80s and lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 732 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Areas of RA are lingering around northeast FL terminals, which
should dissipate over the next 1-2 hours. TSRA north of SSI as of
2330Z may drift southward towards the vicinity of the same
terminal through about 01-02Z, though is expected to weaken over
the next few hours. TEMPO for TSRA or at least SHRA will be
possible however through the next few hours at SSI. VFR will then
prevail for most sites overnight, though periods of MVFR are
possible for VQQ and GNV, with IFR not fully ruled out as well.

Convection is likely to affect all terminals Saturday, with the
sea breeze expected to move through all coastal sites. TEMPO
groups with further timing and magnitude of impacts to be added as
we get closer.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 114 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Weak surface front will linger over the local waters today and
Saturday with light southerly winds becoming onshore in the
afternoon and evening with the east coast sea breeze. The front
will shift south of the local waters late Sunday into Monday, with
an increase in northeast winds as high pressure builds north of
the region. The high will build east then southeast of the local
waters through mid-week next week as surface fronts linger over
Georgia, returning southerly winds over the local waters.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk for all local beaches
through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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AMG  74  92  73  90 /  30  50  50  50
SSI  77  90  77  88 /  20  60  30  50
JAX  74  93  74  90 /  30  80  40  70
SGJ  74  91  75  89 /  30  70  30  80
GNV  72  92  72  89 /  30  90  50  90
OCF  74  93  73  91 /  40  90  50  90
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&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$