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693
FXUS62 KJAX 190733
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
333 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN SUWANNEE VALLEY...

.Near Term...Today and Tonight...Weak surface wave over the Fl
panhandle/sw Ga will bring a chance of locally heavy rainfall to
the Suwannee Valley and interior se Ga today. PWATs near 2.3 may
result in localized flooding as the wave shifts to the ne.
The east coast seabreeze will push inland with scattered storms
expected over ne Fl by late afternoon mainly east of Highway 301.

.Short Term...Tuesday through Thursday night...Weak surface low
and mid level low will track ne across central Ga on Tuesday.
This will continue the chance for heavy rainfall over parts of
interior se Ga as PWATs remain near 2.2 inches. Deep-layered
ridging will build across the area Wednesday and Thursday pushing
the weakening surface low northeastward into the Carolinas. A
light pressure pattern with high moisture levels over the area
will continue scattered to possibly numerous showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon/evening hours.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday...Deep ridge will be to the
south of the area as an upper trough digs se from the Great Lakes
into the northeast and then off the ne coast by the weekend. A
moist light sw flow will persist across our area with daily
convection expected as the seabreezes move inland. Temperatures
and pops will be at or slightly above average.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ceilings expected to continue this morning with mid
and high clouds across the area. A short wave trough moving north
of the forecast area will kick of some thunderstorm activity
between 18:00-24:00 UTC. Will keep a PROB30 group in for that
period at all of the stations with ceilings of 5-6 KFT with the
convection.

&&

.MARINE...Weak low pressure over will meander over western Georgia
through Tuesday. The axis of Atlantic ridging will slowly lift
northward from a position across central Florida early this week
to the northeast Florida waters by midweek. A frontal boundary
will then move into the southeastern states from the north late
this week and is expected to stall just north of the Georgia
waters by next weekend.

Rip Currents: Low risk today and Tuesday with offshore winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  85  72  89  71 /  60  40  40  20
SSI  86  75  88  76 /  40  40  20  20
JAX  89  74  91  74 /  30  30  20  20
SGJ  89  74  89  74 /  20  10  20  20
GNV  88  72  91  73 /  20   0  40  40
OCF  90  72  91  73 /  20  20  40  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Zibura/Sandrik/