Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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000 FXUS62 KJAX 220732 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 332 AM EDT Sun May 22 2022 ...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... .NEAR TERM [Today Through Tonight]...
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High pressure will be east of the region this period, continuing the warm and moist flow from the south. Convection will initiate early in the afternoon Today, then spread through the afternoon. Activity will focus near the I95 corridor later in the afternoon, as the east coast sea breeze moves inland. Convection will decrease in intensity and coverage this evening, with most shower activity ending during the overnight. Highs in the middle to upper 80s will be common Today, with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. .SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]... Monday, low level ridge looks to be over northeast FL and the western Atlantic, with a broad sfc trough located from the central FL panhandle to southeast LA. A weak front will remain north of the area. Mid level ridge across south central FL and just north of the Bahamas will shift slightly northeast as additional shortwave energy passes through AL, GA, FL panhandle, and southeast LA. Mean flow is south-southwest near 10-15 kt with elevated PWATs remaining nearly the same as the past couple of days at around 1.6 to 1.8 inches. Daytime heating and sea breezes will support latest rain chances around the 40-60 percent range. Initial activity will be along the sea breezes, especially the west coast sea breeze in the morning and early aftn. Models suggest best rain chances across the Suwannee Valley up into southeast GA where clusters of showers and storms expected to form. Soundings suggest steep low level lapse rates, and about 25-35 kt of bulk shear supporting some organization/longevity to the cells. The main threats will be strong gusty winds of 40-60 mph, frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, and some hail. Monday night, scattered showers and storms will be ongoing in the evening, as they lift northeast in the prevailing flow from out of the southwest. This activity is also supported by shortwave energy over the northwest zones. The main focus will be just inland from the coast and may pass through the nrn marine waters as well. Convection should dissipate after midnight. Tuesday, the bulk of any shortwave trough activity across the southeast lifts north and northeast of the forecast area allowing the mid level ridge to build in across central and north central FL in the afternoon and evening. Increased subsidence and overall lower PWATs should result in generally lower rain chances so will advertise mainly chance range POPs (30-50 percent), with highest 50-55 percent for inland southeast GA. Lowest chances will be along the northeast FL coastal areas as east coast sea breeze pushes in early on prevailing south-southeast synoptic flow in the lowest levels. Scattered inland convection anticipated Tuesday night then dissipates again near and after midnight. Temps will be near normal both days with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and lows in the upper 60s to around 70. .LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Saturday]... A weak front over the southeast U.S. Wed morning will lift north as progressive mid/upper level trough over the MS Valley shifts eastward through Thu. Prevailing flow in the low levels is south-southeast Wed and Thu as a cold front associated with the aforementioned mid/upper level trough pushes toward the region. Somewhat drier air on Wed will keep the rain chances on the low side, generally at 20-30 percent, but will ramp up a bit to near 40-60 percent on Thu and Fri from increased moisture along and ahead of the front. Given this added stronger lift associated with the cold front, there is a potential for some severe t-storm activity Thu-Fri. On Saturday, weak support aloft suggests the front will be dissipating over the area, but still some low chance for a few thunderstorms is forecast but overall lower rain chances anticipated. Temperatures will be near normal with highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s Wed and Thu, but lowering 2-3 degrees Fri and Sat due to the weak cool front. Lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s, then drop a few degrees Friday night as drier air brings cooler temps.
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&& .AVIATION... [Through 06Z Monday] Prevailing VFR conditions expected through the morning hours. Patchy fog will be possible at inland sites KGNV and KVQQ toward dawn. Thunderstorms will develop across the region in the afternoon, with restrictions expected. This activity will decrease in coverage during the evening. && .MARINE...
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High pressure will be east of the area through Tonight. A trough will move southeast across area Monday into Monday night. High pressure will build to the northeast Tuesday through Thursday. Another trough will move southeast through region Friday into Friday night. High pressure will build to the north Saturday. Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate through Monday NE FL Moderate through Monday
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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No fire weather concerns at this time, with another day where wetting rains should help lessen fire weather problems and dry fuels. Scattered- numerous thunderstorms today through Monday, though, could ignite fires in areas with dry fuels. Locally high dispersion possible Monday but confidence is low at this time.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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Locally heavy rainfall/localized flooding expected to occur today through Monday given the high moisture content and the instability available. The favored area of heavier rainfall potential this afternoon and evening is generally along and east of Highway 301. On Monday, the favored area is slightly further west and more limited to isolated pockets of heavy rainfall.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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AMG 88 67 88 67 88 / 30 30 60 50 50 SSI 82 73 87 72 86 / 60 30 40 30 30 JAX 87 70 90 70 89 / 60 40 40 30 30 SGJ 86 71 87 71 87 / 50 30 30 20 20 GNV 89 69 90 69 91 / 50 60 40 30 30 OCF 89 70 91 69 91 / 40 40 40 30 30
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&& .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&

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