Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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000 FXUS62 KJAX 051056 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 556 AM EST Fri Mar 5 2021 .AVIATION... [Through 12Z Saturday] VFR conditions are expected through the 12Z TAF period. WInds will increase behind a southward moving dry cold front will high pressure building down from the northwest today. Winds will become north to northeasterly from 13Z-15Z at KSSI southward into the duval county terminals and then becoming northeasterly after 15Z- 16Z at all TAF sites with winds at coastal terminals 12-14 knots with gusts to 18-20 knots and winds inland 8-10 knots. High clouds will increase towards 00Z over the region with overcast skies and showers expected to approach the inland TAF sites late in the period and have VCSH at KGNV by after 09Z, but chances too low to include at the remaining terminals for this TAF package. Winds will be from the northeast after 00Z around 5 to 8 knots. && .PREV DISCUSSION [404 AM EST]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... High pressure is currently located just NW of the region over southern AL with light north to northwesterly winds around 5 mph or less ahead of a back door cold front moving down the southeast coast towards coastal GA. Temperatures are in the low to mid 40s across much of the region and near 50 along the coast at this hour, a little below seasonal for this time of year. Some patchy fog is possible around dawn along the NE FL coast to the St Johns river basin where dewpoints are a little higher in the mid 40s compared to the rest of NE FL lingering in the lower 40s as clear skies and subsidence will be in place. As the back door cold front moves southward from SE GA into NE FL later this morning, winds will increase from the north and then northeast with gusts around 15-20 mph at the immediate coast and 10-15 mph away from the coast. High pressure ridging will sink southeastward from the Ohio valley today and continue to promote subsidence and dry conditions over the region under sunny skies for the first half of the day with high level cirrus then beginning to stream in from the west by the early afternoon hours as a low pressure system begins to develop over the western Gulf of Mexico near the TX coast. Tonight, cloud cover will be increasing with scattered showers arriving south of I-10 over NE FL by the predawn hours. Northeast onshore flow will keep winds elevated at the coast around 10-15 mph overnight and around 5-10 mph inland. Lows will be seasonal in the mid to upper 40s over inland SE GA and around 50 at the SE GA coast and near to slightly above seasonal values with low 50s over inland NE FL and mid to upper 50s at the NE FL coast. .SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday]... On Saturday, an upper trough swings through region as a Gulf low moves across southern Florida bringing a return of rain chances to most of the area. Showers appear to be mainly south of Waycross with the best chances over north-central Florida. Stable, cooler air filtering in from the north will limit any thunderstorm potential and generally keep showers light. Showers come to an end Saturday night as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Clearing skies and additional cooler air advecting in will cause temperatures to drop below normal. Some patchy frost will be possible in our northernmost counties on Saturday night, however, the better frost coverage potential will be Sunday night across inland southeast georgia and Suwannee valley. Highs will be in the 60s over the weekend. Lows will range from the mid 30s to the upper 40s. .LONG TERM [Monday Through Thursday]... Dry week ahead with a warming trend. Strong surface high pressure will build over the western Atlantic through the week keeping the region dry and maintaining an east-northeasterly flow. Slightly below normal temperatures on Monday warm to above normal by Wednesday. .MARINE... Small craft exercise conditions are expected to develop late this morning as a dry cold front moves south over the area waters early today with increasing northeasterly winds as a high pressure ridge builds from the north northwest through this evening. An area of low pressure will then track across the Gulf of Mexico tonight, then across southern Florida on Saturday. This low will exit to the east southeast Saturday night. High pressure will build to the northwest Sunday, then north Monday, and northeast Tuesday through Thursday. Rip Currents: SE GA: Moderate through Saturday NE FL: High through Saturday .HYDROLOGY... Many river sites remain in minor flood along the Altamaha, Sante Fe, and the Satilla basins. Slow improvement is expected as most of the rainfall on Saturday should fall south of these basins. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 69 45 61 37 61 / 0 10 10 0 0 SSI 63 50 60 43 60 / 0 10 30 10 0 JAX 69 51 61 44 62 / 0 20 40 20 0 SGJ 68 56 62 49 61 / 0 20 50 30 0 GNV 75 51 61 41 66 / 0 30 60 20 0 OCF 77 53 65 44 68 / 0 30 60 30 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk from 9 AM EST this morning through late tonight for Coastal Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau- Coastal St. Johns. GA...None. AM...None. &&

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