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000
FXUS62 KJAX 221753
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
153 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2020

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Friday]

Scattered shower activity and isolated embedded t-storms over the
the area at this time, with good chances of MVFR cig/vsby in this
activity. Through early evening, main impacts mainly around KSGJ,
KVQQ, and KGNV into the early evening, and rest of the TAFs will
see possible MVFR showers or a brief storm. Convection should
diminish inland after about 01Z or so, but with onshore flow
continuing a chance of showers for the coastal TAFs so left in
VCSH all night. Some patchy fog and low stratus will be possible
inland, but again too far out in the forecast to put in definitive
low cig and vsby as well as SREF output giving less than 5
percent chance of IFR. Another round of isolated to scattered
showers will be possible Friday after 11Z or so. East to
northeast winds of about 8-12 kt through the mid evening then
diminishes overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [950 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Low stratus around 500ft has developed across the interior from
western Duval westward along I-10, and northwest to Waycross and
southwest to Gainesville. The stratus will continue into the
morning hours before scattering out. Scattered streamer showers
continued to develop over the regional Atlantic waters and move
inland along the coastal counties early this morning aided by
coastal convergence.

An upper level trough over the area will weaken and lift northward
today, and upper level flow will shift from the south this morning
to southwest and west this afternoon. 15 knot east northeasterly
onshore flow and a coastal trough will continue scattered showers
and embedded storms through the morning hours along the coastal
counties. The coastal trough will then push inland this afternoon,
with showers and embedded spreading across the western half of the
area. Showers will wind down in the evening hours, with widely
scattered coastal showers continuing overnight. Highs will be in
the low to mid 80s and lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.


.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday]...

Onshore flow regime will persist with surface ridge to the north
gradually weakening. A moist unstable airmass will remain over the
area which will continue the chance for showers and isolated
afternoon storms. A weak upper impulse in the zonal flow aloft may
bring a slight increase in shower activity on Saturday. Above
average temperatures will continue with highs in the low/mid 80s
and lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

Mid level ridge will build across the area from the Gulf of Mexico
through the period. Subsidence will produce a warmer and drier
pattern through the middle of next week. Temperatures will be
nearly ten degrees above average levels with highs reaching the
upper 80s inland.


.MARINE...

Seas will continue to build today and tonight over the coastal
waters due to swells from distant Hurricane Epsilon, with Small
Craft Advisory conditions for seas over all but the nearshore
southeast Georgia waters through the end of the week. A High Surf
Advisory may be needed for Flagler County tonight into Friday due
to surf building to near 7 feet. High pressure will be north
northeast of the region into early next week. This pattern will
continue the onshore flow. Tropical system named Epsilon will pass
well to the east, but it will contribute to elevated waves
through the weekend.

Rip Currents: High Risk of rip currents at the northeast Florida
and southeast Georgia beaches through the end of the week.


.HYDROLOGY...

A Coastal Flood Advisory continues through this afternoon for the
St. Johns River Basin and the coastal areas of northeast Florida.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  67  80  66  83  66 /  20  40  10  20  10
SSI  71  80  70  81  70 /  40  40  20  20  10
JAX  69  82  69  83  69 /  40  40  20  30  10
SGJ  72  83  71  83  71 /  40  30  20  30  20
GNV  68  85  67  84  67 /  20  10  20  30  10
OCF  69  86  69  85  68 /  20  10  20  30  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for Clay-
     Coastal Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal St. Johns-Inland
     Duval-Inland Flagler-Inland St. Johns-Putnam.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal Camden-
     Coastal Glynn.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for Waters from
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT Friday
     for Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine
     FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&