Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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000 FXUS62 KJAX 221753 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 153 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2020 .AVIATION... [Through 18Z Friday] Scattered shower activity and isolated embedded t-storms over the the area at this time, with good chances of MVFR cig/vsby in this activity. Through early evening, main impacts mainly around KSGJ, KVQQ, and KGNV into the early evening, and rest of the TAFs will see possible MVFR showers or a brief storm. Convection should diminish inland after about 01Z or so, but with onshore flow continuing a chance of showers for the coastal TAFs so left in VCSH all night. Some patchy fog and low stratus will be possible inland, but again too far out in the forecast to put in definitive low cig and vsby as well as SREF output giving less than 5 percent chance of IFR. Another round of isolated to scattered showers will be possible Friday after 11Z or so. East to northeast winds of about 8-12 kt through the mid evening then diminishes overnight. && .PREV DISCUSSION [950 AM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... Low stratus around 500ft has developed across the interior from western Duval westward along I-10, and northwest to Waycross and southwest to Gainesville. The stratus will continue into the morning hours before scattering out. Scattered streamer showers continued to develop over the regional Atlantic waters and move inland along the coastal counties early this morning aided by coastal convergence. An upper level trough over the area will weaken and lift northward today, and upper level flow will shift from the south this morning to southwest and west this afternoon. 15 knot east northeasterly onshore flow and a coastal trough will continue scattered showers and embedded storms through the morning hours along the coastal counties. The coastal trough will then push inland this afternoon, with showers and embedded spreading across the western half of the area. Showers will wind down in the evening hours, with widely scattered coastal showers continuing overnight. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s and lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. .SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday]... Onshore flow regime will persist with surface ridge to the north gradually weakening. A moist unstable airmass will remain over the area which will continue the chance for showers and isolated afternoon storms. A weak upper impulse in the zonal flow aloft may bring a slight increase in shower activity on Saturday. Above average temperatures will continue with highs in the low/mid 80s and lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s. .LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]... Mid level ridge will build across the area from the Gulf of Mexico through the period. Subsidence will produce a warmer and drier pattern through the middle of next week. Temperatures will be nearly ten degrees above average levels with highs reaching the upper 80s inland. .MARINE... Seas will continue to build today and tonight over the coastal waters due to swells from distant Hurricane Epsilon, with Small Craft Advisory conditions for seas over all but the nearshore southeast Georgia waters through the end of the week. A High Surf Advisory may be needed for Flagler County tonight into Friday due to surf building to near 7 feet. High pressure will be north northeast of the region into early next week. This pattern will continue the onshore flow. Tropical system named Epsilon will pass well to the east, but it will contribute to elevated waves through the weekend. Rip Currents: High Risk of rip currents at the northeast Florida and southeast Georgia beaches through the end of the week. .HYDROLOGY... A Coastal Flood Advisory continues through this afternoon for the St. Johns River Basin and the coastal areas of northeast Florida. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 67 80 66 83 66 / 20 40 10 20 10 SSI 71 80 70 81 70 / 40 40 20 20 10 JAX 69 82 69 83 69 / 40 40 20 30 10 SGJ 72 83 71 83 71 / 40 30 20 30 20 GNV 68 85 67 84 67 / 20 10 20 30 10 OCF 69 86 69 85 68 / 20 10 20 30 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal Duval- Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for Clay- Coastal Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal St. Johns-Inland Duval-Inland Flagler-Inland St. Johns-Putnam. GA...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal Camden- Coastal Glynn. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT Friday for Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM. &&

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