Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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972 FXUS62 KJAX 221811 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 211 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM...
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Issued at 201 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Rest of this afternoon/evening...East to Southeast steering flow around the high pressure centered over the GA/SC region is combining with PWATs around 1.25 inches and an inland moving East Coast sea breeze to produce a few small pop-up isolated showers that will continue across inland areas through the afternoon hours, mainly across SE GA. For now most of the activity is just sprinkles and measurable rainfall chances remain at 20% or less through sunset. Activity not expected to become deep enough to produce any thunderstorm activity. Tonight...Skies to become mostly clear once again after sunset and while not expected to become as cool as previous nights, still expect near normal lows in the mid/upper 60s inland and lower 70s along the Atlantic Coast. Temps to cool enough over inland areas to produce some patchy fog around sunrise Thursday morning, but not expecting to see the amount of locally dense fog as this morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM...
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(Thursday through Saturday night) Issued at 201 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 A high pressure ridge will extend across the area Thursday and Thursday night, from a high center to the northeast. Subsidence under the ridge will lead to dry weather. The ridge will begin to sink to the southeast Friday into Friday night. A 500mb trough is expected to move across southern GA late Friday into Friday night. This feature could result in a few showers and storms over northern forecast area. In addition, an increase in cloud coverage will be expected late in the day Friday through Friday night, especially over SE GA is forecast. Weak surface ridge will remain to the southeast Saturday through Saturday night. An upper short wave is expected to move southeast into area Saturday afternoon, then across region through Saturday night. This feature, coupled with sea breeze boundary interactions will yield a chance for storms across forecast area. Temperatures will trend above normal throughout this period, but warmest days will be Friday and Saturday due to warm advection on Southwest flow.
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&& .LONG TERM...
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(Sunday through next Wednesday) Issued at 201 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 The region will be between high pressure ridge to the southeast and an approaching front to the northwest Sunday into Monday. The frontal boundary will move into the region and stall Tuesday into Wednesday. Waves are expected to move along this boundary. The greatest chances for showers and storms will be Tuesday and Wednesday, due to the frontal zone. Temperatures will trend above normal through Tuesday, then be closer to normal Wednesday due to front.
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&& .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Morning diurnal Cumulus development has lifted to VFR levels at all TAF sites and expect this to continue through the rest of the afternoon hours with rainfall chances remaining too low (below 20 percent) to include in the TAF forecasts. Main impacts late tonight will be fog chances at inland TAF sites with likely MVFR vsbys at VQQ from 07-11Z and possible MVFR vsbys at JAX/GNV around sunrise (09-11Z) Thursday morning. This will be followed by low chances of another round of brief MVFR CIGS from 13-15Z at all TAF sites Thursday morning, but these probs remain less than 30% for now and will just continue a SCT cloud deck in the 1500-2500 ft range. && .MARINE...
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Issued at 201 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Weak Onshore flow will continue to fade through the end of the week as high pressure ridge builds south over the local waters and expect diurnal sea breeze cycle to dominate the mostly dry weather pattern. The ridge axis will builds south of the local waters over the weekend and produce a more offshore flow and keep the sea breeze pinned closer to the Atlantic Coast. Thunderstorm chances will increase slightly, but mainly just isolated over the weekend with more scattered storm activity early next week as the next frontal boundary approaches the region from the Northwest and continue to increase the offshore flow closer to SCEC or potential SCA levels. Rip Currents/Coastal Flooding: Moderate risk of rip currents will continue through Thursday in the weak onshore flow. The approach of the full moon on Thursday has also brought up water levels along the Atlantic Coast and St. Johns River Basin to Action stage, but with the weakening onshore flow, not expecting to reach Minor Flooding at this time.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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AMG 66 92 69 92 / 10 10 0 10 SSI 71 85 72 89 / 0 0 0 20 JAX 67 90 69 93 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 68 87 69 91 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 65 92 67 93 / 0 10 0 10 OCF 66 93 69 93 / 0 10 0 10
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&& .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$