


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --239 FXUS62 KJAX 191255 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 855 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 ...A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE PULSE STORMS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON IN NE FL... .UPDATE...-- Changed Discussion --The latest sounding profile is in! As predicted, a strengthening and deepening southwesterly flow will prioritize a gulf breeze advancement through the morning - convection is already developing along the Big Bend at 0830. This flow will halt the Atlc sea breeze, keeping it east of the I-95 corridor and this corridor is where strong to marginally severe pulse storms may develop. Buoyancy parameters are a tad bit stronger than yesterday due to some slight cooling in the mid levels as the upper ridging, which had been in place, is flattened by the downstream trough. Convective evolution will be on the earlier side than what is typical. The strongest storms are still expected during the afternoon but should fall between 3p-6pm with weakening trends thereafter as storms pulse along the residual outflow boundaries. The one feature that may perpetuate storms into the evening will be a slowing and decaying cool front slowly sliding south across central GA this evening. Outflow offered by convection along front may continue isolated storms across portions of SE GA through and possibly a little after midnight. In addition to storms, it will be another seasonably hot summer day as we approach the equinox (longest day of the year) tomorrow. The southwest flow will pumps temps to the low 90s areawide, even at the beaches. It`ll feel pretty hot today with heat index values 100+. Important to hydrate FREQUENTLY and take cooling/rest breaks while working outdoors.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM... (Today through Tonight) Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Deep flow will transition to a more southwesterly today as the sfc ridge shifts a little southward and a mid level trough moves in across GA, MS, and the parts of northern FL. PWATs will recover over most areas from some low values from yesterday, with values today of about 1.7 to 2 inches per GFS, NAM, and SREF. Slightly lower values expected for far inland southeast GA near 1.5/1.6 inches. Lessened subsidence, ample moisture, and some cooling aloft at 500 mb to -7C to -8C will lead higher chances today, generally scattered to numerous coverage of showers and storms, mainly focused along the I-75 corridor initially, then shifting to the east coast and coastal waters in the afternoon. The main threats will continue to be locally strong wind gusts, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours. Having said that, there may be an outside chance of a severe storm, given some low-end bulk shear values of up to 20-25 kt, and the potential for higher CAPE today. This isolated severe potential should generally be located from eastern northeast FL zones up into coastal southeast GA, and to near the Okefenokee swamp area. Timing from about 4 pm-9 pm. Will show generally likely POPs across northeast FL and trending down to 30-40 percent north of Waycross. Highs today will reach into the lower to mid 90s with heat indices similar to prior days about 100-105 for northeast FL and slightly lower values for inland southeast GA where slightly lower dewpoints are expected. Tonight, scattered convection is anticipated in the evening and should generally dissipate overnight. After midnight, isolated convection will be possible for offshore waters, and then the second area over western parts of Gilchrist, Alachua, and Marion counties as west/southwest flow brings in some weak convection across from the Gulf. Otherwise, lows in the lower to mid 70s anticipated again. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Friday, A mid to upper trough axis will move east off of the eastern seaboard with an associated surface cold front dragging southward into the coastal plains of the Carolinas and near the Altamaha river. Combination of additional moisture and frontal convergence will create numerous to widespread showers and storms across NE FL with slightly less coverage over SE GA. Isolated strong to potentially severe T`storms will be possible as mid level temperatures cool to below climatology levels of about -9 to -10 Celsius with corresponding steeper mid level lapse rates. On Saturday, the mid/upper level trough axis will exit into the Atlantic and the removal of shortwave energy aloft will cause the front to slowly dissipate through the day. Meanwhile high pressure will move from the OH and TN valley into the central and southern Appalachians. Winds will be variable early and become easterly as low level ridging reforms to the east over the Atlantic waters. This pattern will scattered showers and thunderstorms near the coast with numerous showers and storms west of highway 301 as the Atlantic seabreeze pushes well inland. Daytime highs will be in the mid 90s for most areas and low 90s at the beaches. Overnight lows will be a little above normal in the mid 70s along the coast and low to mid 70s inland. Heat index values will top out in the 100-106 degree range. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 By the end of the weekend and into early next week, ridging aloft will build over the OH valley into the Mid Atlantic states, with surface high pressure reforming east the Southeast US coast and promoting easterly flow over the area. This will allow for a great reduction in pops with isolated T`storms confined to areas well inland each afternoon. Skies will be mostly sunny east of highway 301 and partly cloudy further west. Temperatures during the period will begin near normal with highs in the low 90s away from the coast, upper 80s at the beaches and low to mid 90s west of highway 301, then warm by midweek next week to the mid 90s inland, low to mid 90s along I-95, and around 90 at the beaches. Heat index values will average 98-103 degrees during the period. && .AVIATION...-- Changed Discussion --(12Z TAFS) Issued at 758 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 VFR conditions will persist as thunderstorms build from the Big Bend of FL this morning and push eastward to the I-95 corridor this afternoon, some storms may be strong to severe and capable of gusts 35-40 kts, small hail, and erratic wind shifts. Convection may reach KGNV as early as 15z and KJAX as early as 18z. Anticipate convection to fade from 23-01z with leftover showers inland drifting back to the Atlantic coast. A prevailing southwesterly winds around 8-12 knots will keep the Atlc sea breeze from reaching KJAX this afternoon but it is expected to push into KSSI, KSGJ, and potentially KCRG through the early afternoon before thunderstorms initiate. VFR conditions are expected overnight.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MARINE... Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 High pressure centered over the Atlantic and central Florida will drift south through Friday while a weak front moves into the southeast states. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon through early next week, and may result in hazardous winds and seas. The front will dissipate over the weekend while a weak ridge of high pressure builds across southeast Georgia early next week. Winds will become gradually more south and southeast late in the weekend and early next week but winds remain on the low side (aob 15 kt) for most part. Winds may reach near exercise caution criteria tonight but for most part look to be just shy of headlines. Overall seas look to be 2-4 ft and winds near or below 15 kt into early next week. Rip Currents: Low to moderate rip current risk expected through Friday with surf around or below 2 ft. Looks like longshore currents still pulling northward given the prevailing flow of recent. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...-- Changed Discussion --AMG 93 73 93 72 / 40 40 40 20 SSI 90 75 90 75 / 40 40 40 30 JAX 94 73 93 73 / 60 40 60 30 SGJ 91 74 91 74 / 60 40 60 30 GNV 93 73 94 73 / 70 30 80 40 OCF 92 73 93 73 / 70 30 80 40-- End Changed Discussion --&& .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$