Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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000 FXUS62 KJAX 290532 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 132 AM EDT Mon May 29 2023 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 949 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023 Added patchy fog, due to the combination of light winds, low level moisture and clear skies. Otherwise, current forecast on track. && .NEAR TERM... (through Tonight) Issued at 314 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023 Dry weather and gradually thinning low level clouds from WSW to ENE is expected into the evening as wrap-around moisture from the surface low near the Carolina coast continues to shift farther northeast. Dry, cool and stable WNW flow between the departing low to the NE and a weak surface ridge building eastward across the central Gulf Coast will enable temps to fall into the 60s by midnight. There is a low chance of patchy ground fog after midnight (SREF probability < 5%), especially near the Altamaha River basin and across our north-central FL zones where a few wake troughs will linger and moisture could pool toward sunrise. Confidence of the fog is not high enough to include in the forecast at this time with some low level clouds approaching SE GA with the weak trough and some high clouds increasing from the SW across FL after midnight. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 314 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023 Prevailing dry weather with a warming trend is expected this period as weak surface high pressure builds over north Florida. Expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with lingering low level moisture near 850 mb sparking some diurnally enhanced cumulus each day. Monday, a wake trough slides southward across SE GA which could spark a few sprinkles mainly north of I-10 in the afternoon and evening as a mid/upper level trough moves overhead. A dry, stable layer between 700-500 mb will continue to limit rain potential and continued with only 10% chance of pops. The diffuse surface trough edges south across north Florida Tuesday but with continued dry mid level continued with rain chance < 10%. Temperatures warm further as low level winds become more WSW and highs moderate back into the mid/upper 80s inland. An east coast sea breeze is expected each day, keeping coastal locales a few degrees cooler. Drier air over inland areas will enable lows to still fall near to a few deg below climo Mon night in the low 60s to the mid/upper 60s toward the Atlantic coast. The return on onshore flow late Tue into Tue night will increase moisture and moderate min temps back to near climo values in the mid/upper 60s inland to low 70s coast. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 314 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023 Wed...Mean layer moisture increases from the south as an upper level trough deepens across the western GOMEX. This increase in moisture combined with the lingering frontal zone and sea breeze convergence will increase diurnally driven rain chances as onshore flow develops and brings the best chance of afternoon showers/isolated t`storms inland toward the I-75 corridor. Thu-Sun...A return to a wet pattern and cooler temperatures given increased cloud cover and precipitation as an unseasonably deep upper level short wave trough carves out across the central GOMEX and edges slowly eastward through Saturday inducing a broad surface low across the eastern GOMEX that will drift toward the FL peninsula into the weekend. PWATs are expected to range from above normal near 1.8 to 2 inches across north FL to near normal in the 1.3 to 1.5 inch range across SE GA. In the lower levels, breezy easterly flow persists as WSW forcing aloft increases, increasing lift across the local area. The best chances of rainfall (50-70%) will focus across NE FL this period with decreasing rain chances northward across SE GA (30-50%). The potential for locally heavy rainfall increases Fri-Sat as isentropic lift increases with the approach of the surface low and the high to the north wedges farther southward across GA, with training bands potentially impacting coastal areas. There remain forecast model inconsistencies with how fast the system moves eastward Sat into Sun and enables drier air to infiltrate into the area from the west and tapering off rainfall potential. Consensus guidance indicates a general downward trend in rain chances late Sat in Sun. The main hazard this period will be the localized flooding rainfall potential, but a few strong to severe storms will also be possible especially across our north-central FL zones, but the severe threat will ultimately depend on the resultant surface low track. Coastal hazards including && .AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS) Issued at 124 AM EDT Mon May 29 2023 Light winds and cooling boundary layer, should still likely be enough to support MVFR VSBYS at GNV/VQQ this morning between 8-12Z, otherwise expect VFR conds through the morning hours with increasing high clouds from the Gulf of Mexico. Diurnal heating will trigger an East Coast sea breeze that will move slowly inland and shift winds to SE at 8-12 knots in the 18-21Z time frame at SSI/SGJ/CRG/JAX along with enough mid level moisture for cloud decks to develop around 7000 ft or so through the late afternoon hours, but not enough moisture for any rainfall. After 00Z winds diminish to 3-6 knots along with some lingering SCT/BKN mid and high clouds through the end of the period at VFR levels.
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&& .MARINE... Issued at 314 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023 Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions due to combined seas of 4-6 ft are headlined for the outer waters Weak high pressure will build across Florida Monday and Tuesday as a weak trough slides southward across Georgia. High pressure will strengthen northeast of the local waters Wednesday as the surface front settles across south Florida. Thursday and Friday a stormy weather pattern develops as an area of low pressure forms in the Gulf of Mexico and drifts eastward through Saturday. As the Gulf Low approaches south FL late Friday and high pressure continues NE of the region, the gradient between the two features will begin to increase onshore (easterly) winds over the local waters and could see a return to at least Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions Fri/Sat. Rip Currents: Extended the High Rip Current Risk for NE FL beaches through Monday due to continued ENE swells near 2 ft, low tides between 1030-1130 am, high beach attendance and recent washouts along the coast. Per collaboration with other offices, continued a Moderate Rip Current risk for SE GA beaches Monday at this time. An elevated rip current risk is expected through much of the upcoming week as onshore flow develops and persists Tuesday into the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 314 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023 High pressure will build over north Florida Monday as a weak front slides southward across GA. There is a very low chance (<10%) of light afternoon sprinkles across SE GA Tuesday afternoon, otherwise dry conditions will prevail with minimum humidity fall into the 30-40% range both days across inland areas. Light WSW winds will prevail for inland areas while the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland each afternoon trailed by ESE winds. Much warmer temperatures and elevated transport winds on Monday will create very high dispersion (over 80 units) near and north of the I-10 corridor, including over the Okefenokee NWR. A return to a much wetter pattern is expected Thursday through Saturday, with most wetting rainfall across north-central Florida. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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AMG 62 88 66 88 / 10 10 0 30 SSI 68 86 71 85 / 10 0 0 10 JAX 64 89 68 88 / 10 10 0 20 SGJ 67 87 70 85 / 10 0 0 20 GNV 63 91 66 89 / 0 10 0 30 OCF 63 91 67 90 / 0 10 10 40
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&& .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-133- 138. GA...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM EDT early this morning for GAZ154-166. AM...None.
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