Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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988 FXUS62 KJAX 161047 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 547 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019 .AVIATION... [Through 12Z Tuesday] VFR with southerly winds prevail for most of the period. This morning, a VFR onshore strato-cumulus deck affects coastal TAF sites. Mid to high clouds increase this afternoon into tonight ahead of the approaching cold front. Confidence is low at this time as to the potential for fog develop again tonight due to the upcoming increase in cloud cover. && .PREV DISCUSSION [251 AM EST]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... Patchy to areas of fog dissipate across the region after sunrise. Surface high pressure off the mid-Atlantic moves eastward as warm, southerly flow over the region causes temperatures to rise well above climo. Highs will range from the mid 70s across inland southeast Georgia to the low 80s over central Florida. Clouds increase tonight ahead of the next cold front approaching the area. Lows remain above climo ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s. .SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday]... Tuesday and Tuesday Night...Next cold frontal passage still on track to enter SE GA by the afternoon hours with numerous showers and isolated storms expected. The main low and energy further north with this system will limit the severe weather potential but a few strong storms with gusty winds is possible. Prior to the convection expect breezy southwest winds to push Max temps into the mid to upper 70s for SE GA and into the lower 80s for Northeast Florida. Cold frontal convection will fade as it pushes into NE FL during the evening hours as the front slows down with some lingering showers along the NE FL coastal areas and adjacent waters into the overnight hours. Clearing skies towards the morning hours will allow for Min Temps to fall into the 40s inland and near 50 along the coast. Record High Maximum Temps for Tuesday December 17th... JAX 82/2015...GNV 85/1956...AMG 82/1956...SSI 80/1971...CRG 83/2015 Wednesday and Wednesday Night...Skies becoming clear/sunny as High Pressure builds well Northwest of the region and cold air advection in Northwest steering flow will hold Max temps below normal only in the 50s for most of the region and breezy North winds through the day. High pressure builds north of the region over the Mid Atlc States and clear skies and light north flow will set the stage for a light freeze over inland SE GA and the Suwannee River Valley of North FL with lows near 30 degrees, otherwise widespread lows in the 30s over other inland areas and near 40 along the coast as the surface flow becomes N-NE along the coast. Some patchy frost will be possible but the North flow around 5 mph through the night will limit frost formation, but the wind flow will drop wind chills into the upper 20s around sunrise Thursday Morning for most inland areas. .LONG TERM [Thursday Through Sunday]... Thursday...High pressure builds into the Carolinas and sets up breezy Northeast flow off the Atlc and expect a slow increase in low level moisture with some coastal showers possible by Thursday Night, otherwise temps remaining below normal with highs still in the 50s for the coast and SE GA and around 60 for NE FL. Friday/Saturday/Sunday...Rainfall chances increase as a combination of onshore flow, coastal trof and shortwave energy pushing across the region in the W-SW flow aloft. Slight chance of showers on Friday will increase to Chance of Showers on Saturday and Sunday (30-50%) but the breezy onshore flow will slowly increase temps back closer to normal values with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s/50s. .MARINE... High pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast shifts eastward as southerly winds develop over local waters today. A cold front moves through on Tuesday bringing showers with embedded thunderstorms. Strong northerly winds develop behind the front on Wednesday causing Small Craft Advisory conditions across most of our local waters. Winds and waves gradually decrease into Friday as onshore flow develops. Rip Currents: Low risk today & Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 75 60 76 40 55 / 0 30 100 50 0 SSI 72 61 74 46 56 / 0 0 60 70 10 JAX 77 61 80 46 58 / 0 10 50 70 10 SGJ 77 62 80 49 59 / 0 10 50 60 10 GNV 78 60 80 46 59 / 0 10 50 70 10 OCF 80 61 81 49 61 / 0 10 50 60 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&

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