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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KJAX 220732
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
332 AM EDT Sun May 22 2022

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...

.NEAR TERM [Today Through Tonight]...

-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will be east of the region this period, continuing the
warm and moist flow from the south. Convection will initiate
early in the afternoon Today, then spread through the afternoon.
Activity will focus near the I95 corridor later in the afternoon,
as the east coast sea breeze moves inland. Convection will
decrease in intensity and coverage this evening, with most shower
activity ending during the overnight.

Highs in the middle to upper 80s will be common Today, with lows in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

Monday, low level ridge looks to be over northeast FL and the western
Atlantic, with a broad sfc trough located from the central FL
panhandle to southeast LA. A weak front will remain north of the
area. Mid level ridge across south central FL and just north of
the Bahamas will shift slightly northeast as additional shortwave
energy passes through AL, GA, FL panhandle, and southeast LA.
Mean flow is south-southwest near 10-15 kt with elevated PWATs
remaining nearly the same as the past couple of days at around 1.6
to 1.8 inches. Daytime heating and sea breezes will support
latest rain chances around the 40-60 percent range. Initial
activity will be along the sea breezes, especially the west coast
sea breeze in the morning and early aftn. Models suggest best rain
chances across the Suwannee Valley up into southeast GA where
clusters of showers and storms expected to form. Soundings suggest
steep low level lapse rates, and about 25-35 kt of bulk shear
supporting some organization/longevity to the cells. The main
threats will be strong gusty winds of 40-60 mph, frequent
lightning, heavy rainfall, and some hail. Monday night, scattered
showers and storms will be ongoing in the evening, as they lift
northeast in the prevailing flow from out of the southwest. This
activity is also supported by shortwave energy over the northwest
zones. The main focus will be just inland from the coast and may
pass through the nrn marine waters as well. Convection should
dissipate after midnight.

Tuesday, the bulk of any shortwave trough activity across the
southeast lifts north and northeast of the forecast area allowing
the mid level ridge to build in across central and north central
FL in the afternoon and evening. Increased subsidence and overall
lower PWATs should result in generally lower rain chances so will
advertise mainly chance range POPs (30-50 percent), with highest
50-55 percent for inland southeast GA. Lowest chances will be
along the northeast FL coastal areas as east coast sea breeze
pushes in early on prevailing south-southeast synoptic flow in the
lowest levels. Scattered inland convection anticipated Tuesday
night then dissipates again near and after midnight.

Temps will be near normal both days with highs in the upper 80s to
lower 90s, and lows in the upper 60s to around 70.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Saturday]...

A weak front over the southeast U.S. Wed morning will lift north as
progressive mid/upper level trough over the MS Valley shifts eastward
through Thu. Prevailing flow in the low levels is south-southeast
Wed and Thu as a cold front associated with the aforementioned
mid/upper level trough pushes toward the region. Somewhat drier
air on Wed will keep the rain chances on the low side, generally
at 20-30 percent, but will ramp up a bit to near 40-60 percent on
Thu and Fri from increased moisture along and ahead of the front.
Given this added stronger lift associated with the cold front,
there is a potential for some severe t-storm activity Thu-Fri.
On Saturday, weak support aloft suggests the front will be
dissipating over the area, but still some low chance for a few
thunderstorms is forecast but overall lower rain chances
anticipated. Temperatures will be near normal with highs in the
upper 80s/lower 90s Wed and Thu, but lowering 2-3 degrees Fri and
Sat due to the weak cool front. Lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s,
then drop a few degrees Friday night as drier air brings cooler
temps.
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&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Monday]

Prevailing VFR conditions expected through the morning hours. Patchy
fog will be possible at inland sites KGNV and KVQQ toward dawn.
Thunderstorms will develop across the region in the afternoon, with
restrictions expected. This activity will decrease in coverage
during the evening.

&&

.MARINE...

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High pressure will be east of the area through Tonight. A trough
will move southeast across area Monday into Monday night. High
pressure will build to the northeast Tuesday through Thursday.
Another trough will move southeast through region Friday into Friday
night. High pressure will build to the north Saturday.

Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate through Monday
              NE FL Moderate through Monday
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

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No fire weather concerns at this time, with another day where
wetting rains should help lessen fire weather problems and dry
fuels. Scattered- numerous thunderstorms today through Monday,
though, could ignite fires in areas with dry fuels. Locally high
dispersion possible Monday but confidence is low at this time.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

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Locally heavy rainfall/localized flooding expected to occur today
through Monday given the high moisture content and the instability
available. The favored area of heavier rainfall potential this
afternoon and evening is generally along and east of Highway 301.
On Monday, the favored area is slightly further west and more
limited to isolated pockets of heavy rainfall.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

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AMG  88  67  88  67  88 /  30  30  60  50  50
SSI  82  73  87  72  86 /  60  30  40  30  30
JAX  87  70  90  70  89 /  60  40  40  30  30
SGJ  86  71  87  71  87 /  50  30  30  20  20
GNV  89  69  90  69  91 /  50  60  40  30  30
OCF  89  70  91  69  91 /  40  40  40  30  30
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&