Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 190751 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 351 AM EDT Sat May 19 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 234 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2018 Precip has largely died out, and there probably won`t be much redevelopment during the night. Therefore, have cut back on the POP through the overnight hours. UPDATE Issued at 1032 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2018 Continued to track showers and thunderstorms throughout the evening. With the loss of daytime heating, and the surface boundary moving farther north, we are finally starting to see things subside across eastern KY. Will keep likely pops across the far northern CWA for the next hour or two as things continue to wind down. Kept with isolated to scattered pops overnight as there may continue to be some pop up convection throughout the night. Still expecting the best instability to drop off soon however, so went with only rain after midnight. Also updated the near term forecast with the latest observations for temps, dew points, and winds. All updates have been finalized and sent to NDFD/web. A new forecast package and HWO will be sent out to remove evening wording. UPDATE Issued at 746 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2018 Made some adjustments so far throughout the evening to pops and weather, as we continue to monitor showers and thunderstorms moving through the area. The best coverage is now across the northern half of the CWA, where we have likely pops, with more scattered convection across the southern CWA. Expect a diminishing trend in showers and thunderstorms as we continue to head through the evening and lose daytime heating. A new forecast package was sent out to reflect the changes in the pops/weather. Updates have also been made to make sure the hourly temp, wind, and dew points forecasts match up with current observations. All updates have been published and sent to NDFD/web. Will continue to monitor radar and make more updates to pops/weather as needed as well. && .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 300 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2018 Scattered to numerous showers and storms will be ongoing across eastern Kentucky this afternoon through early this evening. This activity should taper off to isolated to scattered showers and isolated storms tonight, after we lose daytime heating. Showers and storms should begin to increase in number again by mid to late Saturday morning, as a trough of low pressure moves across the region. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated instances of flooding will be possible on Saturday, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours. The rain should steadily taper off Saturday night, as the trough moves off to our east. Temperatures will continue to run above normal, with lows the next two nights expected to fall only into the low to mid 60s, with highs on Saturday forecast to max out in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Winds should be generally light and variable outside any thunderstorms or intense rain showers. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 355 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2018 The extended portion of the forecast will begin on Sunday night with the first part of the extended featuring a return flow setup into the OH and TN valleys. High pressure over the southeastern CONUS will continue to bring warm and moist air into the region setting up shower and thunderstorm chances each day at least until Thursday. Activity through the middle of next week will also be impacted by impulses tracking along the northern stream. A stronger wave will track into the Great Lakes and Upper OH Valley region for Monday. Increased southerly flow pumping in plenty of moisture with PWATs around 1.50 inches and instability nearing 2500 J/KG will set the stage for a few strong storms with the potential to produce heavy rainfall. The added forcing in place will keep convection going later into the night into early Tuesday morning. Tuesday and Wednesday will be highlighted by a diurnal type pattern. The best chance for shower and thunderstorm development will be in the afternoon and evening each day coinciding with the peak heating. This convection will then dissipate in the overnight hours. By Thursday, a weakening of the ridge over the southeast will allow a shortwave ridge to pass over the region allowing a brief break in the pattern to develop. Thus will go with a slight chance to dry forecast for much of the area. The mentioned ridge shifts east as another shortwave will move into the region for Friday. Lingering high pressure to the east of the Appalachian chain will slow the system moving into the area. Thus will only expect a slight chance of precip in the area for Friday. Will lean to the super blend on this solution as confidence is low on precip chances. Overall temperatures for highs during the extended will still be 5 to 7 degrees above normal. The summer like conditions will continue through the extended it seems.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 234 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2018 Precip within the forecast area is almost gone, and there are many breaks in the clouds. Despite poor conditions which affected some locations during the evening, improvement has occurred and most places were VFR to start the new TAF period. With light winds, moist air, and breaks in the clouds, there is concern for fog development again during the night. However, in light of the improvement which has occurred, opted for just tempo lines in the TAFS for sub VFR conditions. With an upper level trough passing over during the period of diurnal destabilization on Saturday, will expect showers and thunderstorms to again develop. Most places should have rain and a deterioration of conditions for a time. However, it should not be a prolonged event, and there is not enough confidence in specific timing to justify more than VCTS in TAFs at this point. The convection should die out again Saturday evening with loss of heating, and also due to the upper level trough departing to the east. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...HAL

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