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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS63 KJKL 260005 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
805 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost is possible in some valleys again tonight.

- A warming trend begins on Friday, with well above normal
  temperatures then expected early next week.

- There is a small potential for showers in association with a
  warm front Friday and/or Friday night. There is a better chance
  at showers and thunderstorms as we move into the new work week
  due to the approach of a dying cold front.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 745 PM EDT THU APR 25 2024

23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure to the north of the area
keeping skies mostly clear for the northeast half of the JKL CWA.
However, more, mainly high, clouds are affecting the southwest
portion of the area. Expect some ridge to valley differences in
temperatures to show up through the night with areas of frost
possible in the deeper northeast valleys. Currently, temperatures
across eastern Kentucky vary from around 60 degrees north to the
mid and upper 60s in the southeast. Meanwhile, amid light
northwest to north winds, dewpoints range from the low 40s
southwest to around 30 degrees in the northeast. Have updated the
forecast mainly to fine tune the limited river valley fog in the
northeast late tonight and to include the latest obs and trends
for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to
the NDFD and web servers.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 325 PM EDT THU APR 25 2024

Surface high pressure centered over far southeastern Ontario late
today will move east over New England tonight, providing us with
continued fair weather in a cool and dry air mass. Aloft, ridging
will arrive from west tonight, getting squeezed between a slowly
departing trough to the east and a storm system impinging on the
ridge from the west. High clouds associated with warm air
advection may begin to spill through the ridge tonight, but will
probably be insufficient to have much impact on temperatures.
Considering the dryness of the air mass, it would appear that our
northern valleys will again be marginally cold enough for some
frost by morning.

The aforementioned storm system will slowly move from the central
plains to the upper Midwest on Friday and Friday night as surface
high pressure and ridging aloft shift slowly away to our east. This
will result in increasing warm air advection for the local area
ahead of a warm front. This front currently lies from the central
plains to the FL panhandle. It will approach us on Friday and arrive
Friday night, but will become ill-defined as it arrives, with the
greatest push of warmer air being to our north and northwest. Models
have not been consistent on the prospects of precip for our area
with this front, and have been focusing the greatest POP to our
northwest and north in the stronger warm air advection. In the
uncertainty, will continue to carry low POPs in the forecast Friday
and Friday night, along with an increase in clouds. Despite the
clouds and possible precip, warm air advection should result in
higher temps on Friday, with clouds then also helping to hold
readings higher on Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT THU APR 25 2024

A busy upper air pattern will be in place across the CONUS to
begin the extended portion of the forecast. A large and developing
trough of low pressure aloft will be taking shape over the mid
Rocky Mountain region and will be pushing slowly eastward over the
weekend. Another smaller but robust area of low pressure will be
bringing showers and storms to the middle of the country as it
moves northeastward into southeastern Canada the first half of the
weekend. As this system moves of to our north, a ridge of high
pressure will spread across the region over the upcoming weekend,
and will bring very warm and dry weather to eastern Kentucky
during that time. Although there are some timing differences
amongst the various models, the general agreement is for high
pressure to dominate our weather this weekend and to bring much
warmer than normal temperatures to the area.

After a couple of days of dry weather, a strong area of low
pressure is forecast to intensify as it moves through the Great
Plains to end the weekend and into the first of the new work. A
vigorous upper level system will steer and help strengthen the
surface low as it moves our way. However, with a strong ridge of
high pressure still parked over the southeastern CONUS, the trough
to our west will still have a difficult time moving our way, as
the stubborn high will be slow to break down. The ridge should
finally break down and move far enough east to allow a weakening
cold front to push through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Monday
through Tuesday. This system will bring widespread showers and
scattered thunderstorms to our area, especially from around dawn
Tuesday through early Tuesday evening, as the surface boundary
moves through. The models are showing enough instability for
thunderstorms to form, but with the front shearing out as its
parent low moves quickly northeast into Canada, there is still
quite a bit of uncertainty regarding storm strength, as we`ll
continuing going with garden variety thunderstorms for our area
for now. Any storm might produce frequent lightning and brief
heavy downpours.

Temperatures will average well above normal through the extended,
with ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s each day. Nightly lows
will also be quite mild, and will range from the mid 50s to lower
60s. We will see a few nights with marginal conditions for ridge
valley temperature differences, and should see at least a hint of
this Saturday night and Sunday night, and again Tuesday night and
Wednesday night, as high pressure will be influencing our weather
during this time. Winds will increase a bit and become gusty early
next week, as strong low pressure moves by to our northwest and
north.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT THU APR 25 2024

Generally VFR conditions and winds less than 10 kts - switching
south on Friday - are forecast through the period. Very localized
valley fog may occur in southeast Kentucky overnight and early
Friday morning, but are not expected to affect any TAF sites.
Additionally, shower chances through the day Friday will be too
low to include as even VCSH in the TAFs at this point.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL/GREIF